2021's Presidential Hot Topics

At tonight's presidential debate between US President Trump and former Vice President, Joe Biden, the candidates have their last chance to detail how they would meet the challenges the country will face in 2021 and beyond. What are those challenges? The Foreign Policy Association has released the following list of the global issues their groups will be discussing when they meet remotely next year. It would be interesting to see if you can check off any of these issues discussed at tonight's presidential debate. 1. The role of international organizations in a global pandemic. 2. Global supply chains and national security. 3. China and Africa. 4. Korean peninsula. 5. Persian Gulf security. 6. Brexit and the European Union. 7. The fight over the melting Arctic. 8. The end of globalization. The US presidential candidates touched on all of these topics, except the supply chain, which is complicated by moral as well as economic and political considerations: and Brexit and the EU, which is not of much interest to US voters. COVID-19 and China were discussed, but not in relation to international organizations or Africa. North Korea, with an economy crippled by sanctions and crop damage from unusually punishing typhoon rain, needs help, maybe from China, but possibly from selling weaponry to would-be nuclear states using hard-to trace cryptocurrency. The future of the oil industry discussion involved both the Persian Gulf and the effect of climate change melting in the Arctic. The future of globalization involves jobs, always a subject of US presidential debates. For information about how to engage in the Foreign Policy Association's discussion groups, go to fpa.org.

North Korea, Nuclear at 75

On Saturday, October 10, 2020, North Korea will parade the fruits of 30 years spent above ground and in secret underground tunnels developing a nuclear ICBM deterrent, possibly including advanced multiple independently targetable missiles and missiles that can maneuver in flight and on re-entry. North Korea is suspected of paying for its 2020 nuclear-related purchases with $275 million in hacked cryptocurrency. When Pyongyang commemorates the 75th anniversary of Stalin's founding of North Korea's communist Workers' Party, the world will be able to identify contributions countries, such as Russia, Ukraine and Iran, made to Saturday's military models, just as the world saw how Pakistan helped develop the uranium enrichment process on display in North Korea's first 2006 nuclear bomb test. Saturday, the world also might see evidence of Iran's hand in a North Korean submarine capable of launching solid-fueled ballistic missiles. These missiles, known as Pukguksong, again were paraded on January 14, 2021. Activity at North Korea's Sinpo South shipyard suggests development of such submarines. The 1989 collapse of the USSR was both a loss and a blessing for North Korea. Boris Yeltsin withdrew North Korea's Russian protection in 1991, but Pyongyang found it could recruit unemployed Russian and Ukrainian experts needed for its nuclear and missile program. Porous sanctions failed to prevent North Korea from becoming a nuclear power. Saturday's parade will demonstrate North Korea is, not only a nuclear power, but also a source able to supply weapons eagerly desired by would-be members of the nuclear club. With an economy crippled by sanctions and crop damage from unusually heavy typhoon rain, North Korea is likely to look for such a deal and, by using cryptocurrency, the transactions would be nearly impossible to trace. In one sense, North Korea finds the US and South Korea pitted against Russia and China, but global dynamics are more complicated. After North Korea and the US seemed on the brink of war in 2017, South Korea and China recognized, at the very least, such a nuclear confrontation destabilized the area. Just a year later, when the US and South Korea began improving relations with North Korea, Beijing made overtures to Chairman Kim designed to block greater US involvement on the peninsula. By 2000, Vladimir Putin took control in Russia and he too reached out to restore relations with North Korea. North and South Korea also have an on-again, off-again relationship. In June, 2020, the two countries cut off communication with each other, and Pyongyang blew up their joint liaison office in Kaesong, North Korea. Two months later, Chairman Kim was reported to be in a coma. In September and October, 2020, he was wishing President Trump a COVID-19 recovery and apologizing to Seoul for killing one of South Korea's officials in waters North Korea controls in the Yeonpyeong islands. Detailed disclosure about the incident compromised South Korean-US joint intelligence methods. Finally, just weeks before Saturday's parade of military hardware, a North Korean spokesperson said Pyongyang was satisfied with its military deterrent and planned to focus on economic development in 2021.

Putin's Private Siberian Project Excludes Alexei Navalny

Two-dimensional maps often show Russia on the far right side and the United States all the way over on the left. This separation provides the false impression the countries are far apart. But as John McCain's vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, famously observed, she could see Russia from her kitchen window. Presumably, Russia's President Vladimir Putin can see the United Staes from a Siberian window. And lately, US military planes have intercepted Russian planes snooping from the skies over Alaska. Climate change turned Siberia, once identified with Russian prison camps in an inhospitable frozen wasteland, into what President Putin calls the East Sibrian Sea's Northern Sea Route "a matter of national pride." With increased seasonal passage through Arctic waters comes faster market access for oil and gas from Russia's Yamal Penninsula and a new military option. Beginning on September, 11, 2018, Russia, China and Mongolia participated in Vostok-2018, a massive military exercise in Siberia. By the middle of 2020, Vladimir Putin, who considered the collapse of the USSR the 20th century's geopolitical disaster, felt confident. Russia tamed the Chechnya separatists in 2000 and annexed Crimea in 2014. Possible domination of Georgia and Belarus was still in play. The US was about to walk away from an Open Skies Treaty, resisted by the Kremlin ever since one was designed to prevent surprise attacks after World War II. Refusing to authorize treaty-permtted flights over Russia's military exercises and staging areas for nuclear weapons aimed at Europe provoked the US to designate a final November, 2020 participation date. Russia already interfered with US elections in 2016 and was prepared to do so again in 2020. On July 1, 2020, voters approved a referendum allowing a Russian president to serve two consecutive 6-year terms after the next election, when the current term of President Putin, age 67, ends in 2024. At this propitious moment, Putin's political nemesis, Alexei Navalny, arrived in Siberia. Mr. Navalny's anti-corruption message had gained traction in Russia's urban areas, where his slick YouTube delivery system skirted state-owned media and inspired massive protests when Putin decided to return to the presidency in 2012. By 2020, Navalny was far outside Russia's major cities schooling opposition city council candidates who won two seats and ousted the majority held by Putin's United Russian party in the student town of Tomsk in Siberia's elections on Sunday, September 13, 2020. By winning one seat in Novosibirsk and uniting with three other independent candidates, the United Russian party also seemed likely to lose its majority there. Timing favored Mr. Navalny's opposition party, since the coronavirus exposed the effect of falling oil prices on a falling standard of living, while Putin's wealthy oligarchy buddies remained untouched. On the plane back to Moscow from Siberia, Mr. Navalny became seriously ill. The plane made an emergency landing in Omsk, Siberia, where Alexei spent two days in a coma before the Kremlin allowed a plane to fly him to Germany on August 22, 2020. There, and also later in laboratories in France and Sweden, doctors determined he was exposed to the nerve gas chemical weapon, Novichok, the same poison that nearly killed the former Russian spy, Sergei Skripal, in England. On Tuesday, September 8, 2020, a masked man threw a foul-smelling liquid into the offices of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation in Novosibirsk, Siberia. By Wednesday, September 9, German officials announced the attack on Navalny forced them to reconsider Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, which already is a source of controversy in Germany and Poland. Although Mr. Navalny came out of his coma on Monday, September 7, 2020, and could walk a short distance by September 14, German physicians remain uncertain about the extent of his long-term recovery. German doctors released Mr. Navalny from the hospital on September, 22, 2020. He will remain in Germany for rehabilitation but has expressed his intention to return to Russia, where court orders have frozen his bank accounts and, on August 27, 2020, seized his apartment to prevent it from being "sold, donated, or mortgaged." Knowing Mr. Navalny will be greeted with a rousing rally when he returns to Moscow, Putin certainly is planning to counter his reception. It is interesting to note how enthusiastic Vladimir Putin was about Siberia, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited him in 2010. He took her to a map in his dacha's private office to show her the areas where he was involved in saving Siberian tigers and polar bears from extinction. An earlier post, "North Pole Flag," also details Russia's continuing interest in the Arctic.

Spies Fail Lie Detector Tests?

How do the CIA, FBI and US Army explain the long periods Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, Jerry Chun Shing Lee and Peter Rafael Dzibinski Debbins spied for China and Russia without being detected? Mr. Ma was employed by the CIA for 22 years and the FBI for six. For nine years, Mr. Lee first worked for the CIA and then the FBI, and Mr Debbins spent his nine years in chemical and Special Forces units within the US Army. Each man provided highly classified national defense material to US enemies. Mr. Ma also compromised US human assets in China, and Mr. Debbins recommended fellow Green Berets who might cooperate with Russian intelligence. Periodic lie detector tests, identifying suspicious coincidences, "walking back the cat" investigations to discover those who had access to information about a failed operation, security clearance questionnaires and other procedures for uncovering spies exist. But Robert Hanssen, an FBI counterintelligence analyst, never had a polygraph test during the 15 years he spied for Moscow. Another spy revealed he had been able to convince a new lie detector operator results that indicated he was lying were inconclusive. What methods should prevent US spies from escaping detection before they are able to undermine US national security?

What Can Be Learned about North Korea: Defectors, COVID, Accidents

North Korea's Chairman, Kim Jong-un, surfaced on September 25, 2020, to send a letter to South Korean President Moon Jae-in's Blue House apologizing for the North Korean troops who killed an official from South Korea's Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries on Septemebr 22. North Korea later claimed the official crossed North Korea's maritime border south of the Yeonpyeong islands it controls in order to defect to the north. This explanation occurred shortly before reports began to claim Jo Song Gil, North Korea's acting ambassador to Italy, who disappeared with his wife in Rome in November, 2018, had been living in South Korea since July, 2019. A North Korean diplomat in London, Thae Jong ho, and his family had defected to South Korea in 2016. Originally, Chairman Kim expressed condolences that the incident involving the death of the South Korean official had occurred at a time when both countries were suffering from COVID-19. On October 3, after President Trump was found to have COVID-19, Chairman Kim also expressed his wish that the president would recover. Commercial satellite imaging has shown the Yongbyon area, where North Korea's Nuclear Scientific Research Center is located, suffered severe damage from typhoons in September, 2020. The breach of a dam caused the lake that provides a steady water level for cooling when reactors are operating, which they are not now, dried up. Elsewhere, flooding in the area damaged grain in the country's already suffering economy. Grain is now drying on every available surface. At the UN in September, 2020, North Korea announced it is satisfied with the strength of its nuclear deterrent and intends to concentrate on economic development. A party conference is planned for January, 2021, in order to develop a new 5-year economic plan. Sanctions imposed to block North Korea's nuclear and missile program remain in place, although they have not been very effective. As usual, reports direct from North Korea, where citizens are afraid to talk to reporters, were not forthcoming immediately after neighboring countries announded North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, was in a coma on August 25, 2020, and observers saw explosions across China's border at Changbai on August 3, 2020. Since the sister of Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, who was anticipated to assume interim North Korean national and international duties while her brother was in a coma, had not been seen in public since July 27, 2020, some suggested a power struggle for leadership might be in progress. This no longer seemed the case, when Kim Yo Jong was seen with her brother, Kim Jong Un, inspecting the flooded area in Yongbyon in September. The August explosion in North Korea occurred in the Tapsong neighborhood of Hyesan City on North Korea's eastern border with China. These explosions caused articles to reference a July, 2020, train fire in Sinuiju on North Korea's western border with China. Firefighters were unable to contain the fire, because extinguishers at the train station were empty. In the process of describing how the explosion began with a gasoline fire and spread to LPG storage cylinders, we learned that homes in Hyesan each rely on their own stored gasoline or LPG. Finally, besides reporting on North Korea from South Korean and official Chinese sources, initial reports of the explosion revealed there are Chinese activists who help those trying to escape from North Korea.

Sky-based Networks Aid Earth-bound Travel and National Security

For centuries, wise men and ship captains have relied on stars to guide their way. When China's Long March 3B Rocket launched a final satellite from the Xichang Satellite Center on June 23, 2021, the completed BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) became a new network in the artificial skies mentioned in an earlier post. Besides serving China, the BDS is expected to court customers along China's Belt and Road Initiative project throughout Asia and Africa. Earlier, the European Union had allowed China to use its Galileo network of navigational satellites even though China was not an EU member. Once China learned what it could about a satellite system, it went off on its own. A short time later, the UK announced, on July 3, 2020, it would join with Bharti Global, India's mobile network operator, to fund a $1 billion purchase of the bankrupt OneWeb startup that had invested $3.4 billion in its satellite project. With satellites manufactured in Florida, Arianespace had helped launch 74 satellites out of a planned 650 for OneWeb. As of November, 2020, the government of the UK and India's Bharti Global own OneWeb, including its 74 satellites already in space. A Russian Soyuz rocket is scheduled to launch another 36 onconnect nearly all of the Earth's land and sea surfaces. December 17, 2020. Bharti Global's 425 million customers in India demonstrate the commercial and operational expertise that company brings to OneWeb's ultimate connection with nearly all of the Earth's land and sea surfaces. Nowadays, satellite constellation networks represent more than aids for travel, navigation, port traffic, sea rescues and precision timing, they offer broadband internet communication across the world, and they are an essential national security asset.

What Would You Say, If You Had A Supermodel's Platform?

Top models from around the world had an opportunity to have their say in Vogue's April, 2020 issue. Kaia Gerber from the United States, who has over five million Instagram followers, noted, "When you have a big platform, it seems irresponsible not to use it for good."

     What models have to say on every subject lacks credibility, but in some areas they are experts. Liu Wen from China observed fashion is a subject that draws people from everywhere together for a creative cultural exchange. And all people should see themselves represented, said the UK's Fran Summers, who has seen a shift from what used to be one stereotype of a beautiful woman. Ugbad Abdi, the model who first wore an Islamic hijab on the cover of Vogue, agrees.

     Although models, like professional basketball players, are taller than average women and men, there is neither one type of Brazilian beauty, says Kerolyn Soares from Sao Paulo, nor one type of black beauty, adds Anok Yai, who was born in Egypt. At age 37, Taiwan's Gia Tang also counters the idea that all models must be younger. Jill Kortleve, a Surinamese-Dutch model with tatoos, who stopped trying to exist on one banana a day, now books runway appearances in her body's normal size. Paloma Elsesser from the United States, a curvy, larger model of color, claims "a whole new guard of image-makers" exists. Latinx model, Krim Hernandez from Mexico, hopes the growing acceptance of inclusive images can lead to a broader acceptance of diversity in general.

     Models also possess credibility to speak on subjects besides fashion and how the media represents women. Growing up in a refugee camp in Kenya and later in Australia, South Sudanese-born Adut Akech advocates for the rights of displaced refugees and the needs of those who suffered losses in Australia's bushfires. Speaking with a distinctive gap in her two front teeth reminiscent of model Lauren Hutton's pioneering look, Ms. Akech simply reports she is doing and saying what she knows best. What Adesuwa Aighewi knows best are authentic products from artisans in her West African, East Asian, and Southeast Asian heritage.  She knows kitenge textiles featuring traditional African patterns are made in China. Ros Georgiou, a model born in Greece, is using her backstage access at runway shows to learn photography and to become a director. From her base in Milan, Italy, Villoria Cerelli applauds the new respect and opportunity she sees being accorded young photographers, hair stylists and makeup artists.

     For Mariam de Vinzelle from France, modeling is a diversion, a hobby. Since she is currently an engineering student, in the future she expects to speak with authority outside the fashion field. India's Pooja Mor already speaks with authority on the Buddhist and Taoist principles of the Falun Gong spiritual practice that grounds people in peace and happiness.

      During Vogue's round-the-world fashion shoot, although all models wore some form of the universal fabric, denim, no one expressed the fashion industry's concern for sustainability: landfills bulging with discarded clothing, recycling and the global water shortage. The fact is, blue jean manufacturers recognize the need to reduce the 500 to 1800 gallons of water needed to grow, dye, and process cotton for one pair of jeans and often to use additional water to prewash or stonewash denim. Even though Demna Gvasalia is the creator director of the venerable fashion house, Balenciaga, the hardships he experienced as a refugee from the Georgia that was part of the Soviet Union influence his attention to sustainability and global sociopolitics. In the March, 2020, issue of Vogue, Mr. Gvasalia discussed his use of upcycled and repurposed denim, questioned how much value to place on material items, and suggested falling in love improves productivity.

     There always is a cause waiting for young people to attract attention to a cure on platforms that reach one friend, their family, a scout leader, teacher, coach, dance class....

   

North Korea Taps into the Power of Distraction

Magicians and medical professionals use distraction. Look over there, and while your attention is diverted, something unusual happens or a shot is administered. Distractions are useful, but, beware, they also can be dangerous. In a school lunchroom, one student calls attention to someone coming in the door; an accomplice steals a cookie or two.

     In international relations, countries often need to maintain focus on more than one problem. In my eBook, A Dangerous Mix of Washington Outsiders, I imagined an espionage plot occurring while the U.S. was celebrating the first budget surplus in 28 years, impeaching President Clinton, and preparing for the 2000 elections. My plot is imaginary, but North Korea's recent missile launches are real. Dealing with the coronavirus cannot be allowed to distract world attention from North Korea sending missiles into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone three times during the month of March, 2020. Because of COVID-19, the Olympic games, scheduled to be played in Tokyo this summer, already have been moved to July, 2021. Canceling them altogether may be necessary, it there is a danger athletes might be killed by a wayward North Korean missile.

     North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, who failed to see any progress on a nuclear deal with the U.S. in 2019, resumed missile testing shortly after 700 legislators met for the country's Supreme People's Assembly. The size of the meeting also indicates North Korea, which had imposed a national lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19, is no longer concerned about large congregations.

     What U.S. attention is focused on Korea is devoted to figuring out how to share the cost of military defense spending with South Korea and the virus-related cancellation of joint U.S.-South Korean military drills. Those preoccupations also avoid concern, not only about North Korea's missile tests, but also about the World War II reparation claims that undermine cooperation between U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan. The lack of Russian and Chinese sanctions needed to control North Korea's nuclear ambitions also is overlooked.

     At stake is more than a couple of missing cookies. 

   

Threats to Olympic Sites

Insurance companies feared financial losses if the coronavirus caused the cancellation of this summer's 2020 Olympic Games in Toyota. As it turned out, the games were rescheduled for July, 2021. Violence, including World War II, that marred the noble purpose of the games in the past, could again be a factor next year, if North Korea continues to launch missiles toward Japan.

     Environmental threats from pollution and climate change also have had an impact on the Olympics. Debris in the waters off Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, before the 2016 summer Olympics worried open-water swimmers and skippers in boating events. High winds delayed skiing events and kept spectators off the slopes at the 2018 winter games in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

     Despite efforts to switch away from fossil fuels and plant trees to control the sand and dirt blown south from the Gobi Desert, athletes at the 2022 winter Olympics in China could face a breathing, as well as a competitive, challenge at events in Yanqing and Chongli, north of Beijing. During winter, heating homes and factories increases pollution in an area that suffers year round. Smog is likely to obscure views from the 4-story tower built in Yanqing to give visitors to the Olympics a glimpse of the Great Wall of China.

     Since the fur from four goats is needed to respond to the fashion industry's demand for one cashmere sweater, grazing goats turned the Mongolian steppes north of China into a desert no longer capable of protecting Beijing from wind-blown sand. To stabilize top soil, the government removed up to 700,000 villagers in northern China from land designated for planting trees. However, at the same time climate change reduced rainfall in arid areas, many non-native trees planted in China required more water and worsened water shortages. An attempt to plant shrubs needing less water is underway. In any case, it is hard to know if China's new trees and shrubs will be ready to shield 2022's Olympic athletes from the Gobi Desert's blowing sand. According to Congbin Fu, the director of the Institute for Climate and Global Change Research at Nanjing University, growing forests is a long-term process that "can take several decades or even 100 years."

Africa: Land of Career Opportunities

African American aviation pioneer, John Robinson, who constructed his first airplane out of spare automobile parts in the 1930s, found opportunity in Africa when he went to the aid of embattled Emperor Haile Selassie in Ethiopia before World War II. Today Mr. Robinson is known as one of the founders of Africa's most reliable premier Ethiopian Airways.

     Like Haile Selassie, in 2017 Neema Mushi, founder of Licious Adventure in Tanzania, was eager  to make a U.S. connection. She was looking for U.S. companies willing to carry the African textiles and other items her shop sells to the tourists her company's guides lead up Mount Kilimanjaro and to the beaches of Zanzibar. Now, however, not U.S. companies but Chinese ones, such as Anningtex, Buwanas, Hitarget, and Sanne, fill Ms. Mushi's shelves with mass produced, Chinese-made "African" textiles, called kitenge. Locally-owned African textile producers in Nigeria and Ghana, unable to compete with lower-cost Chinese goods, have gone out of business.

     The point is: if you are an importer; photo journalist or documentary filmmaker looking for a story; someone interested in trying out a new teaching or low-cost home construction technique; a miner or an adventurer seeking opportunities of any kind, Africa welcomes you.

     Two essential ingredients help you get started: money and contacts. With a nest egg, car to sell, or Sugar Daddy, you can plunk down $1000-plus for an airplane ticket and head for Africa immediately. Although a crowdfunding appeal, saving from a job, or persuading a media outlet to fund your project, will delay your take off, keep an eye on the prize.i Also consider submitting a Scholar Registration to Birthright AFRICA at birthrightafrica.org. This new non-profit in New York City is the brainchild of Walla Elsheikh, an immigrant from Sudan who began his career in finance at Goldman Sachs. His vision is to send young African-Americans on free trips to Africa to explore and connect with their cultural roots. On these trips, young adults also have an unique opportunity to discover ways they could begin their careers in Africa.

      Economic officers in foreign Embassies and consulates should be able to provide helpful local contacts in Africa, but don't neglect seeking assistance from missionary communities. Religious orders in your home country can put you in touch with their superiors in African host countries. For example, in Namibia, Africa, China built a container terminal and nearby oil storage installation at Walvis Bay, and South Africa's De Beers Group extracted 1.4 million carats from the offshore coastal waters. I also saw Sister Patricia Crowley, at the St. Scholastica Monastery in Chicago, was about to leave for Windhoer, Namibia, to serve as spiritual director on a one year assignment at a Benedictine missionary community there. An appointment with Sister Patricia in Chicago could lead to a letter introducing your purpose and background to those who could help you in Namibia.

     Likewise, visiting communities of Dominican nuns in a home country could provide contacts with the nuns who teach girls to make a living by sewing and using a computer in Bukoba, Tanzania, and the nuns who teach farmers to plant hybrid tomato crops that withstand heat and insect infestations in Nairobi, Kenya.

     On their outposts in Lagos, Nigeria, and Nairobi, the Jesuit order can provide inspiration and information for those investigating Africa careers. While assigned to the Jesuit Refugee Service in East Africa, Father James Martin, author of The Jesuit Guide to (Almost) Everything, helped set up tailoring shops, several small restaurants, a bakery, a little chicken farm, and the Mikono Centre that sells African handicrafts. By following in the path of African-inspired Picasso and a Mozambican wood carver who sold a three-foot-tall ebony sculpture at the Mikono Centre, artists from around the world may find fulfillment working in Africa.

     In Hia, Ghana, Bishop Afoakwah would appreciate a visit from a journalist willing to investigate the complicated land ownership rights, deeds held by chiefs, and government's incomplete database of mining concessions. Although the bishop thought the church held a legal deed to land a chief donated for a clinic and nursing school, Chinese miners began digging "Mr. Kumar's" gold mine on the property.

     Ghana is not the only African country in need of land use planners, legal assistance, doctors, teachers and others willing to discover career opportunities in Africa.

   

   

What North Korea Can Learn from the Oscars

Censorship destroys creativity.

      At the Academy Awards ceremony in the United States on February 9, 2020, South Korea's film, Parasite, won Best Picture of 2019. Filmed in black and white with sub-titles U.S. movie audiences had to read as they watched the movie. Yet Parasite bested eight English-speaking films in color. The film also won Best Original Screenplay. Bong Joon Ho, who was one of the screenplay's writers, also won Best Director. Although the wife of North Korea's Kim Jong Un is a singer, she was never considered as one of the possible voices chosen to sing, in her native tongue, the nominated song from Frozen at the Academy Awards.

     Nor can China brag about any international film accolades. In 2016 China's wealthy Danan Wanda Group constructed an $8 billion complex to attract international movie-makers to the coastal city of  Qingdao. Despite offering generous financial incentives, the project is not a success. Censorship by China's State Administration of Press Publications, Radio, Film and Television proved to be incompatible with the creative process.

     South Korea offers North Korea a way to escape the Chinese film censorship trap. Missiles and nuclear weapons attract international attention, but so does a blockbuster film. North Korea is lucky to have a prize-winning movie-making community of educators available next door. Those trouble-making North Koreans locked away in the country's concentration camps may be just the creative talent that could net Kim Jong Un and his wife tickets to an Academy Awards celebration and positive international attention for North Korea.       

Can Democracy Be Exported?

Before accepting as an article of faith the glib notion that Russia, Iraq, and other countries with traditions of authoritarian regimes cannot change, consider the observations of Nabeel Khoury, a retired US foreign service officer with extensive experience in the Middle East. Interviewed by Thomas L. Friedman, on c-span's "Book TV" January 15, 2020, Dr. Khoury questioned this assumption. Basically, he said the freedoms in the First Amendment of the US Constitution have universal appeal.

     During President Trump's impeachment trial, Congressional representatives often mentioned the wisdom of the small group who collaborated on the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. In essence, Dr. Khoury recommends a transition to democracy requires similar components: a small cadre of smart influencers and a plan. I was reminded of the intellectuals who gathered at Kavarna Slavia, Prague's Art Deco cafe, to plot Czechoslovakia's "Velvet Revolution."

     That is not to say, democratic changes are free of bloody combat, When Hong Kong's democracy activists first protested China's attempt to void the 1997 Sino-British agreement designed to govern for fifty years after London handed its colony over to Chinese rule, many assumed Beijing quickly would crush resistance. That was eight months ago. In that time, clashes with police and injuries have occurred, but Hong Kong's determination seems to have helped strengthen the determination of nearby Taiwan, another island governed by China, to re-elect a pro-democracy government on January 11, 2020.

     Just as violence can be expected to accompany a transition to democracy, factions within democratic movements also are likely. Authoritarian governments fail to satisfy not only the employment opportunities sought by educated young people in the Middle East and elsewhere, but in Russia, for example, they can fail to accommodate the needs of pensioners who resist increasing the age when they can draw benefits. Some seek freedom from corrupt officials who rob national economies, and others emphasize the desire for personal freedom to express their opinions and to live and work in humane conditions. The earlier marches Alexei Navalny led in Russia sought democratic reform, but he found protests against corruption had more appeal.

     If teachers guided students through the process of writing a Classroom Constitution, their students would see for themselves how factions would emerge to complicate the process. Students would come to appreciate how difficult it is to define the powers and responsibilities Articles would assign to a teacher, students, and administrators, as well as to create mechanisms for resolving disputes.

    Democracy brings with it a battle of ideas, once waged in pamphlets; now in social media. The highly-educated citizens China depends on for technological military and commercial advances value more leisure and call for shorter hours and fewer work days. They also value internet access free of censorship and figure out how to use Western sites both for technological tips and as a means to escape government oversight. On the other hand, new rural arrivals in China's metropolitan areas seek to fulfill basic needs for education, health care, and housing. 

     In order to fashion a democratic structure agreeable to all, masterful leaders need to study political theory and constitutional compromises. The US founders did not share the same objectives. Some owned slaves and others were abolitionists. Some preferred a strong central government; others clung to states' rights. When a rash of countries achieved independence from colonial powers after World War II, Dr. Lorna Hahn envisioned a way global experts could help satisfy the needs of newly independent countries. For 20 years, she sponsored forums and personal contacts that brought together a variety of scholars, such as attorneys experienced in writing constitutions, and leaders from developing countries at an Association on Third World Affairs. 

     For more echoes of Dr. Khoury's belief in the persistent universal quest for freedom that democratic systems of government provide, check out the earlier posts: "Why Do They Love Us?" and "Don't Give Up On Us."

No Time To Be Stupid

China's leader, Mr. Xi Jinping, asserts every country's government is legitimate, even one like his that censors everything a person sees and says and uses facial recognition technology to monitor the activities of every citizen. There are numerous ramifications of acknowledging despotic governments that ignore human rights and theocratic governments that require all people to follow the same religious beliefs and practices deserve the same respect and fealty as governments founded on democratic principles.

     Take the example of neurotechnologies capable of inserting electrodes into a brain to temporarily reduce the time it takes to memorize multiplication tables, a football playbook, or the codes and plans of a military enemy. Invasion into a brain also has other effects. Blood leakage into a brain's compartments from such an insert eventually reduces normal cell activities, such as memory and thinking. The impact on one brain function also can "cross talk" to impact other brain functions, such as the moral ability to discern right from wrong.

     Some scientists devote themselves to technologies that enhance the individual, commercial, and military applications of human individuals, robots, and drones. Other humans use technology to binge-watch shows, socialize on smartphones, or order lipstick and mascara. Around the world, everyone has a stake in supporting governments devoted to: 1) promoting technologies that are good for society and 2) impeding the development and controlling the use of technologies that injure humans.

Foreign Policy Need Not Be "Foreign":

Every year the Foreign Policy Association identifies the areas of the world that need our attention and prepares information to help us understand and discuss these issues. The association has prepared materials on the following for 2020:

• Climate change
• India and Pakistan conflict
• Red Sea security
• Modern slavery and human trafficking 
• U.S. relations with the Northern Triangle of Central America (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador)
• China's Road to Latin America
• U.S. relations with the Philippines
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data

To find out how to obtain these materials and how to start a foreign policy discussion group, go to fpa.org/great_decisions.

Beijing Meets Its Match

Continuous protests begun in Hong Kong in early June, 2019, achieved results on September 4, 2019. The government withdrew a bill that would have required those charged with domestic crimes to be transferred to mainland China for trial. Nonetheless, Hong Kong's leader, Ms. Carrie Lam, failed to resign and protests could continue.

     When China's President Xi Jinping visited Hong Kong for the first time in July, 2017, he said attempts to challenge Beijing's sovereignty, security, and power were "impermissible." On June 30, 2017, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry had said Beijing no longer considered itself bound by the 1984 Sino-British treaty that ended the UK's rule and prepared Hong Kong to become a semi-autonomous region of China for 50 years.

     Under terms of a secret provisional agreement, on August 26, 2019, atheistic China allowed the Roman Catholic Pope, Francis I, to ordain Bishop Anthony Yao Shun of Jining in China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region and Bishop Stephen Xu Hongwei of Hanzhong in Shaanxi. Previously, Beijing claimed such appointments would be considered foreign interference with China's internal affairs.

Taking a Break

 I want to express what a joy it has been to touch base with blog visitors from 85 different countries and to take a moment to review topics covered in past entries.

     In my introductory post on July 17, 2012, I said I hoped to help kids feel comfortable with the globalization that would be part of their lives. Today I add my hope that human rights violations decrease in their lifetime, toleration for all religions grows, and AI, 3D printing, 6G networks, VR, the IofT, and other technological advances enhance rather than threaten their futures.

     I was surprised to see that my first post about China was not until Feb.2015. Since then, Beijing launched its One Belt One Road and Maritime Silk Road global expansion, increased its military hard power, and added soft power films and International Flower Festivals to its cuddly pandas.

     During the past seven years, the African continent also gained importance. One of the blog's single most popular posts, with 140 views, was "Games Children Play," which provided instructions for filling bags for students with samples of Africa's coffee, tea, chocolate, cotton, and other products. Both research in and distribution of remedies for malaria, AIDS, and other diseases now tackle their devastating impact on Africa's progress. Mobile phones already facilitate banking, information about markets, catching animal poachers, and street repairs. Exploitation and corruption are at least recognized, if not yet cured.

     Finally, I want to thank all the sources, from trendwatching.com to globalsistersreport.org, that have provided the information I was able to convey to you

Playgrounds Welcome March Basketball Madness

Now that he's an ex-President, Barack Obama welcomes his extra time to fill out March Madness brackets for the annual basketball tournament pitting 68 top U.S. college teams against each other. Former University of Pennsylvania stars welcome the chance to reminisce about years back when they were on an Ivy League basketball team that reached the Final Four. They remind each other how they were the tough recruits from the New York public leagues who recognized the teammate potential of a lanky lad from a Connecticut prep school.

     March Madness also brings players to welcoming neighborhood basketball courts. The short Shark Tank entrepreneur, Daymon John, reports how he, by being the one who brought the ball, always was welcome to play in pick-up games. Surprisingly, North Korea's short President, Kim Jong-un, is a basketball fan who probably would welcome an invitation to a March Madness game.

     There's even a semi-professional basketball team in Tibet, China. Willard "Bill" Johnson, a former MIT basketball coach and professional player in Iceland, Australia, and Cape Verde, coaches a team made up of nomad sheep and yak herders and Buddhist monks who were prepared to play in the Norlha Basketball Invitational in Gannan, part of China's Gansu province. Unfortunately, Beijing canceled the tournament, because local police voiced security concerns about controlling a large gathering of people during the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

     One of Johnson's players, 6-foot, one-inch Dugya Bum was a school drop out who didn't quit smoking until basketball changed his life. His home now displays a framed photo of LeBron James. Basketball also transformed the difficult lives of Norlha's nomad women who became interested in trying new things, like yoga and meeting together to chat, once they too had a team.

     The Olympic Creed claims "The most important thing about the Olympics is to take part." Around the world, in playgrounds and gyms everywhere, the most important thing may be getting to know each other by taking part in sports. 

The Sport of Gaming

Can gaming's growth now offer opportunity for content specialization? In February, 2019, tech and sports entrepreneurs invested $17.3 million to develop the sports content and global expansion of the European company, G2 Esports.

     As mentioned in the earlier post, "Looking for a Position as a Top Analyst or a Young Voter?," recruiters now visit gaming competitions to hire winners in what is becoming a $150 billion dollar international gaming phenomena. Companies recognize some youngsters grow up with a talent for gaming development and hire employees at age 16.

     Stadiums where spectators watch gamers and teams play "League of Legends", eat snack food, and purchase jerseys and miniature statues of professional, hall-of-fame players attract sponsors in South Korea, China, Russia, and Canada. Tournament prizes totaled $150 million in 2018.

     By 2019,  since influential gamers attracted millions of followers, some like Ninja (Tyler Blevins) and PewDiePie (Felix Kjellberg) also racked up funds from endorsements and merchandise. Ninja hawks a graphic novel and his famous headbands.

     China's Tencent company provided the "Honour of Kings" game played as a demonstration event at the 2018 Asian Games. Although the International Olympic Committee decided against including electronic sports at the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, they will be an official part of the 2020 Asian Games. 

   

   

An Enemy Is Nothing to Fear

An enemy is someone to study. During 27 years of captivity in South Africa, Nelson Mandela studied the Afrikaners, descendants of South Africa's Dutch settlers, who created the apartheid system that made blacks second class citizens in their own country. He learned their language, studied their leaders and made friends with their prison guards. South Africa no longer has an apartheid system.

     My old home town of Chicago has a lot of local problems, a high murder rate is one. But Chicago also is enrolling more high school students in International Baccalaureate (IB) programs. (There also are IB programs for younger students.) These programs enable students to look out at the world with confidence, not fear.

     Students who can trace the Yangtze River from the busy port at Shanghai to the lake district at Wuhan and westward to China's largest city, which IB students are apt to know is Chongqing, rather than Beijing, are not afraid to learn about China's economic and military expansion. They also know the Chinese Communist Party is struggling to block the exercise of constitutional guarantees, attendance at religious services, democracy protests in Hong Kong, tax evasion by its movie stars, Gobi Desert sand storms from adding to air pollution and climate change's rising seas from swamping its artificial islands.

     International Baccalaureate programs, begun in 1968, originally were developed for the children of diplomats, military officers, and business executives frequently transferred to different countries. By satisfying rigorous IB standards, students are prepared to satisfy entrance requirements at colleges and universities wherever they might live. To learn more about IB programs and to find schools that offer them, go to ibo.org.

(Also see the earlier post "Introduce Disadvantaged Kids to the World.") 

   

Winning Oscars and Making Money at the Movies

Oscar-nominated films highlight the international contributions of the movie industry's directors, actors, and technical experts. This year, on Sunday, Feb. 24, a film-maker from Mexico, Alfonso Cuaron, or Pawel Paiolikowski from Poland could win two Academy Awards, one for best director and the other for best foreign language film.

     As in the past, international filmmakers frequently are nominated in the categories: animated and live action shorts. These movies are not shown in many movie theatres, and that is not a loss this year, because, except for two films, they portray depressing themes not suitable for young audiences. Adults and children would enjoy the funny Animal Behavior, however. In this Canadian entry, a dog psychiatrist tries to cure a pig, praying mantis, bird, and other animals of their most annoying habits. A gorilla with anger management issues takes exception to the person in front of him in the "10 or Less" line who wants to count the five bananas in his one bunch separately. He reacts by tearing up her bag of frozen peas and says, "Now, you have a thousand."

     Children already may have seen the Oscar-nominated Bao, a Chinese word for dumpling, that Pixar screened before Incredibles 2. On her second try, Bao's director, Domee Shi, was hired by Pixar as an intern. She is now the first female director in its shorts department. At age two, Ms. Shi migrated with her family from Chongqing, China, to Toronto, Canada. Her father, a college professor of fine art and landscape painter, recognized her talent for drawing, and her mother's dumplings sparked the idea of using food as an entry into understanding another culture. Japanese anime films and manga comics and graphic novels also inspired Ms. Shi, as well as the Mexican theme of the animated feature, Coco, that won an Academy Award last year.

     China is among the growing number of countries joining Hollywood, India's Bollywood, and Nigeria's Nollywood in the film and music video industries. By 2019, however, authoritarian control by Chinese authorities was causing film investors to flee. On the other hand, filmmakers in Nigeria aided government efforts, when suspicious circumstances delayed a presidential election in Nigeria. A drone camera was deployed to record singing Nigerian film stars urging voters to remain cool in a video shown on social media. Off the east coast on the other side of Africa, the island of Mauritius is using the advantage of year round good weather to attract job-creating firm-makers.

     Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin of the Dalian Wanda Group had high hopes for the 400-acre, 30 sound stage, $8 billion Oriental Movie Metropolis he opened in the east coast port city of Qingdao three years ago. Although offering to pay film-makers 40% of their production costs, producers were wary of censoring by China's State Administration of Press Publications, Radio, Film and Television. Other setbacks included: the failure of China's big budget film tribute to Tibetan mythology, Asura; social media references to Chinese President Xi's resemblance to Disney's Winnie the Pooh; and the ill-advised joint U.S.-Chinese film, Great Wall, starring Matt Damon as a mercenary soldier fighting with a secret Chinese army defending the Great Wall of China from monsters.

     Recent films produced for China's domestic market are generating higher box office returns. Dying to Survive opened with a $200 million weekend by telling the story of Lu Yong, who took on the high Chinese prices of Western medicine by importing illegal cancer drugs from India. The Wandering Earth, a sci-fi thriller about the expanding sun's threat to Earth, trapped in Jupiter's gravitational pull, netted $440 million during the first ten days of China's New Year of the Pig. By downplaying its Warner Bros. connection, the U.S.-Chinese co-production, The Meg, a film about a deep sea diver who saved a submersible disabled by a prehistoric Megalodon shark, earned $528 million globally.