Introducing the Real Mexico

Mexico is more than revolutions, drug smugglers, and undocumented immigrants. The country's probable new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, founded the political party, Movement for National Regeneration (Morena), that expects to bring him to power in tomorrow's election on July 1, 2018. Victory over the earlier ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRD) and the National Action Party (PAN) would be much different from the bloody revolutios that once brought, for example, a Victoriano Huerta to his provisional presidency.

     Northern Mexico reaps prosperity from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Unskilled, cheap labor initially attracted US. factories south of the border, but these opportunities in Mexico helped create a new, educated cadre with up-to-date experience. Sister city mayors of Tijuana, Mexico, and San Diego, California, think in terms of a single urban region. A privately financed bridge enables travelers to walk back and forth between San Diego and the Tijuana Airport.

     As a presidential candidate, Lopez Obrador tapped into the feelings of southern Mexicans watching norther Mexicans thrive. He promised to pave roads through the south's mountainous Oaxaca state and to add oil refineries in the southern states of Tabasco and Campeche. In an effort to eliminate food imports, he proposes price guarantees for crops grown by southern farmers. Rising oil prices also expect to help Mexico recover from export revenue losses when prices collapsed in 2014. Yet, to gain electoral support, Mr. Lopez Obrador made a variety of expensive proposals, including a pension for the elderly and disabled, scholarships, and water system improvements. In one instance, Mr. Lopez Obrador is known for an extreme measure.  Residents in Tabasco, at his suggestion, did not pay their electric bills for two decades, thereby costing the company money and causing power to be disconnected periodically.

     From China, the new president is likely to accept an offer of loans to build a railway north of Guatemala to connect the states of Quintana Roo and Chiapas and to builld another road/rail connection through Tehuantepec to the Oaxaca and Veracruz states west of Mexico's southern isthmus. By working with China, Mexico would demonstrate how different international relationships are from 1823, when the Monroe Doctrine told Europe the United States considered any attempt to extend its influence in the Western Hemisphere a threat to its "peace and safety."

     Mexico's new leadership will have only one term to deal with two traditional problems. Drug gangs and the associated increase in murders and violence provide President Trump with justification to build a border wall. Yet, the US demand for cocaine and other illegal substances perpetuates the drug trade. Related turf wars among dealers cause violence and murders in the US and foreign countries, and the arrests of drug dealing criminals fill US prisons. In 2018, Mexico is on track to break the record for murders it set in 2017. With 22 homicides per 100,000 people, Mexico has one of the world's highest rates. The Tijuana arts council building on the site of a concrete-encased structure reminds those on the roof viewing California and those escaping across the border that the art gallery below them is in a tunnel that once carried drugs into the United States.

     Besides inheriting a traditional drug transit destination, Mr. Lopez Obrador also would inherit Mexico's reputation for corruption. Implementation of a National Anticorruption System (NAS) has been on hold pending the results of the presidential election. NAS requires:

• An independent national anticorruption prosecutor devoted to investigating and trying criminal cases,
• An autonomous Federal Administrative Court specializing in serious cases of bribery, vanishing public funds, benefits from campaign contributions, and other acts of corruption by administrative officials,
• Adoption of local anticorruption systems in each Mexican state, and
• A national computerized data platform capable of supporting NAS's objectives.

Facing an increased crackdown on corruption, companies doing business in Mexico are wise to finance serious compliance programs, and Mr. Lopez Obrador would be wise to make good on his presidential campaign promises to eliminate corruption and to abide by Mexico's rule of law.


     

Cut Off the Head and the Colombian Snake Dies?

 In fact, eliminating the head of a drug cartel can spawn a host of little drug organizations, Jack Devine wrote in his book, Good Hunting. What happened after Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, and Qaddafi were eliminated? What have those who watched the TV version of the successful hunt and death of Pablo Escobar, Colombia's notorious drug lord, witnessed after Colombia's June 17 election? The 2,000-member National Liberation Army (ELN), though smaller than FARC's once 18,000 guerrillas, is demonstrating the challenge separate dedicated cells can present.

During 50 years that resulted in 220,000 deaths, the Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of  (FARC) used drugs to finance efforts to overthrow the Colombian government. Coca cultivation for the cocaine trade continues to grow, reaching a new high in 2018 with a 17% increase over 2017. Security forces have failed to stop the violence occurring in former FARC areas where cocaine production continues on the Colombian border.

 President Juan Manuel Santos, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for the 2016 peace accord he negotiated with FARC, could not run for another term. Two potential presidential successors emerged from the May 27 primary this year:
     Ivan Duque, the conservative Democratic Central party candidate mentored by Alvaro Uribe, a     major critic of the Santos peace accord and Colombia's former conservative, authoritarian president, who is now accused of accepting a bribe (a charge he denies) from right wing paramilitary groups,
                                                                 ans
     Gustavo Petro, a pro-peace former guerrilla member and former mayor of Bogota who also           opposed President Santos.

Duque won with 45% of the vote and will take office as President on August 7. Petro may not be the only loser. When FARC controlled as much as 40% of the country, a diverse variety of species was untouched in this wide tropical area. Under Santos, scientists working on the "Colombia BIO" project began a comprehensive systematic survey in the former FARC territory with the idea of transforming biological assets into economic benefits, such as the eco-tourism Chile and Argentina plan to attract with their national park systems featuring biodiversity.  How important the new regime considers funding for "Colombia BIO" is unknown.

What is known is fragmented FARC and ELN guerrilla groups, as well as paramilitary forces, continue to fight for control of the coca fields still being cultivated to supply the demand for cocaine in the US and elsewhere. Infrastructure needed to switch to legal crops and approved funding for former FARC members to set up co-ops have not materialized 

ELN members live without uniforms in towns and villages as civilians who infiltrate political parties, local governments, progressive social movements, and universities. A 5-man central command, headed by Jaime Galvis, that uses encrypted computers to direct attacks has never engaged in serious peace talks.

Despite the problem of even getting ELN to a negotiating table, Duque's supporters continue to consider peace treaty terms with FARC too lenient. His congressional leader, Ernesto Macias, rejects the peace accord's provision that imposes no prison time on disarmed FARC leaders who agree to confess their crimes to a special tribunal based on the model South Africa used after apartheid. Ten non-voting members of FARC; including Sandra Ramirez, the lover of FARC's founder, Manuel Marulanda, now hold seats in Congress. Duque, who studied at Georgetown and worked for the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, D.C., won election on a vague  plan to foster entrepreneurship, talent, and knowledge that had more appeal to voters than Petro's idea about replacing oil, the country's major export, with a green economy based on agribusiness. Duque needs the cooperation of Macias to pass legislation to reform Colombia's pension system by raising the retirement age, to improve court efficiency, and to reduce corporate taxes.

     In September, 2018, a referendum on seven measures designed to stem corruption was defeated, when only a third of the voters needed to pass it went to the polls. The death of Jorge Enrique Pizano in his home, apparently from cyanide poisoning in November, 2018, finds Colombia involved in one of the Odebrecht bribery cases spilling over from Brazil. Partners, the Odebrecht construction firm and the Grupo Aval financial group owned by Colombia's Luis Carlos Sarmiento, won a $1.6 billion contract to build Ruta del Sol, a road connecting Bogota with the Caribbean beaches. A Grupo Aval auditor, the deceased Mr. Pizano , had discovered $30 million of the $1.6 billion contract was paid for what were listed as consultancies that could have been a cover for what were, at least in part, political bribes. Grupo Aval and Nestor Humberto Martinez, Grupo Aval's attorney, denied prior knowledge about $11 million in bribes Odebrecht admitted to the U.S. Department of Justice it paid to obtain the Ruta del Sol contract. Yet in early 2018, Mr. Pizano had given the Noticias Uno TV program recordings of his secret conversations with Mr. Martinez about the consultancy payments. Mr. Martinez, who is now Colombia's Attorney General, has recused himself from all cases, including Mr. Pizano's death, relating to the Ruta del Sol contract. Public pressure urges his resignation. 

Colombia has seen an influx of as many as 1.5 million immigrants fleeing dire political and economic conditions in neighboring Venezuela. Work permits, health benefits, and study opportunities have been provided for at least 442,000 as a return favor for the hospitality Venezuela offered those fleeing FARC's reign of terror. To cover Colombia's growing need for revenue, Duque considered expanding the value-added-tax to include staples, including some foods, that are now excluded, but Duque is likely to find his approval rating drop the way Santos' did to 14%, when he raised taxes. In fact, Duque's approval rating in November already is half the 54% it was a month after he took office.


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Forget Negative Ads; Win Elections with Satire

Kids and adults can write jokes that have negative consequences or cause social and political change. Emmerson Mnangagwa, "the crocodile" who took over when a military coup deposed Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwe's President last November, may have comedians, Carl Joshua Ncube and the group called Magamba Network, to thank for his election on July 30, 2018.

     Before voters go to the polls, the May 26 - June 1, 2018 issue of The Economist tells how the Magamba Network and Ncube and his white Zambabwean sidekick, Samm Monro, known as "Comrade Fatso," will ridicule the country's previous administration in "fun." Their jibes also are designed to prevent backsliding by those who continue to exercise power in the party that ruled with Mugabe. In addition, the laws that made mocking the president and restricting news reporting illegal are still on the books. Current opposition leaders claim they are now prevented from campaigning in some areas of the country and that their overseas Zambian supporters won't be allowed to vote in the July election.

     While Mnangagwa tours outside Zimbabwe spreading the word that his country is now "Open for Business," even for white-owned farms and companies, back home, comics count on widespread mobile phone usage to keep gags, parodies, and satire working for change.

Russia's Alternative to Putin

Does Russia have a viable alternative to Putin? The more than a thousand protesters, who were detained when they marched with Alexey Navalny in Moscow, and the nearly 100 other Russian cities on Sunday, March 26, 2017, think so.

     Unlike the Chinese leaders who, realizing personal gain and other appearances of corruption undermine public support, adopted the Supervision Law that places everyone in the country's public sector under anti-corruption supervision (Under the guise of searching for corruption, Chinese authorities, of course, also position themselves to uncover other prosecutable violations), Putin and the oligarchs he enabled to accumulate their wealth continue to present their soft underbelly for Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation to document on his blog. Someone's $15 million worth of gold bars even fell out of a cargo plane leaving Yakutsk, Russia, according to TIME magazine (April 2, 2018). A Chinese spokesperson said China is willing to lend a hand to other countries that need help fighting corruption. Neighboring Russia is yet to take up the offer.

     Moscow's cyberpropaganda concerns U.S. and European democracies, and Putin's adviser, Andrey Krutskikh, brags that Russia is "at the verge of having something in the information arena which will allow us to talk to the Americans as equals"(TIME magazine, May 29, 2017). But these so-called "triumphs" do nothing to prevent government corruption and a failing economy, based on falling oil prices, from motivating protests in Russian streets.

     While Vladimir Putin basked in his March 18, 2018 sham election victory, ordinary Russian citizens continued to see their disposable income and standard of living deteriorate. By 2018. senior citizens protested Putin's plan to raise the age when they could retire and claim pensions. Although Putin promises to make Russia a great power again, he, like little North Korea's leader, stakes Russia's claim to world respect for its spheres of influence on new nuclear weapons (In December, 2018, he showed a new missile reaching Florida.) rather than the thriving economies and nuclear weapons that support the powerful positions of the United States and China. Where are Russia's wind farms, medical advances, and hybrid seeds to end world hunger?

    Putin has problems: volatile oil revenues far below a once per barrel high near $150; failure to engineer relief from sanctions from the Trump administration; a younger generation getting its news from social media rather than official, state-owned radio and TV stations; corruption favoring oligarchs; a war dragging on in Syria; and a revolt by the Orthodox church in Ukraine. Just as China fears the competing influence of international religions and locks up Uighur Muslims in re-education camps and caused Buddhism's Dalai Lama to flee Tibet, Russia fears the independence of the Orthodox church in Ukraine, supported by Patriarch Bartholomen in Constantinople and Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko. Russia's President Putin, who considers the allegiance of the Russian Orthodox church, including in Ukraine, critical to his authority, threatened to punish those who worshiped in churches affiliated with Constantinople and raised concern that Russia would take over Orthodox cathedrals and monasteries not affiliated with Moscow. The West needs to be prepared to respond to any excuse Putin can use to further strengthen Russia's grip on Ukraine or former Soviet satellites.

     The Kremlin has employed various strategies to silence Navalny and prevent him from running for President against Putin. After he was charged with stealing timber from a state-run forestry in 2013, he was sentenced to five years in prison, despite a lack of evidence. In protest, 10,000 took to Moscow's streets and failed to leave. The next morning Navalny was released. Following his release he ran for Mayor of Moscow and won 27% of the vote to come in second to Putin's candidate in a six-candidate field.

     Later Alexey Navalny and his brother, Oleg, were charged with shipping company fraud. Again a conviction was rendered with no evidence. Oleg was sentenced to three and a half years in a penal colony, where he has been punished repeatedly for minor infractions and his requests for parole were refused twice. Alexey received a suspended three and a half year sentence and house arrest. Russia was using a traditional method of silencing one family member by imprisoning others. But Alexey cut the tracking bracelet off his ankle, announced what he had done on his blog, and started leaving his family's apartment at will. However, his fraud case is used to keep his name off the ballot in  presidential elections, and, for staging protest rallies, he served 30 days in jail in 2018 and was re-arrested again two minutes after his release.

     In the later blog, "29 Countries Influence 7 Billion People," see what the former leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, wrote about Vladimir Putin and democracy.