Alexei Navalny Arrested on Russian Return

Navalny reminded Russians who will take to the streets to protest his arrest on January 23, 2021, that they are demonstrating not just for him but for themselves. The strength of Navalny's anti-corruption movement derives from its nationalist identity rather than being a construct of the United States or another foreign intervention. As soon as Alexei Navalny returned to Russia on January 17, 2021, after a 5-month recouperation in Germany from Moscow-ordered nerve agent poisoning, he was arrested for violating the terms of a suspended sentence for a questionable offense. Russian President Putin is threatened by public support for Navalny's anti-corruption movement and the size of his YouTube audience. Just as the plane carrying Navalny from Germany was about to land in Moscow, it was diverted to another airport away from the group of supporters waiting to greet him. Back at Vnukovo airport in Moscow, police officers detained Novalny's supporters and associates. Also see earlier posts: "Putin's Private Siberian Project Excludes Alexei Navalny" and "Alexei Navalny's Sudden Siberian Illness."

Putin's Private Siberian Project Excludes Alexei Navalny

Two-dimensional maps often show Russia on the far right side and the United States all the way over on the left. This separation provides the false impression the countries are far apart. But as John McCain's vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, famously observed, she could see Russia from her kitchen window. Presumably, Russia's President Vladimir Putin can see the United Staes from a Siberian window. And lately, US military planes have intercepted Russian planes snooping from the skies over Alaska. Climate change turned Siberia, once identified with Russian prison camps in an inhospitable frozen wasteland, into what President Putin calls the East Sibrian Sea's Northern Sea Route "a matter of national pride." With increased seasonal passage through Arctic waters comes faster market access for oil and gas from Russia's Yamal Penninsula and a new military option. Beginning on September, 11, 2018, Russia, China and Mongolia participated in Vostok-2018, a massive military exercise in Siberia. By the middle of 2020, Vladimir Putin, who considered the collapse of the USSR the 20th century's geopolitical disaster, felt confident. Russia tamed the Chechnya separatists in 2000 and annexed Crimea in 2014. Possible domination of Georgia and Belarus was still in play. The US was about to walk away from an Open Skies Treaty, resisted by the Kremlin ever since one was designed to prevent surprise attacks after World War II. Refusing to authorize treaty-permtted flights over Russia's military exercises and staging areas for nuclear weapons aimed at Europe provoked the US to designate a final November, 2020 participation date. Russia already interfered with US elections in 2016 and was prepared to do so again in 2020. On July 1, 2020, voters approved a referendum allowing a Russian president to serve two consecutive 6-year terms after the next election, when the current term of President Putin, age 67, ends in 2024. At this propitious moment, Putin's political nemesis, Alexei Navalny, arrived in Siberia. Mr. Navalny's anti-corruption message had gained traction in Russia's urban areas, where his slick YouTube delivery system skirted state-owned media and inspired massive protests when Putin decided to return to the presidency in 2012. By 2020, Navalny was far outside Russia's major cities schooling opposition city council candidates who won two seats and ousted the majority held by Putin's United Russian party in the student town of Tomsk in Siberia's elections on Sunday, September 13, 2020. By winning one seat in Novosibirsk and uniting with three other independent candidates, the United Russian party also seemed likely to lose its majority there. Timing favored Mr. Navalny's opposition party, since the coronavirus exposed the effect of falling oil prices on a falling standard of living, while Putin's wealthy oligarchy buddies remained untouched. On the plane back to Moscow from Siberia, Mr. Navalny became seriously ill. The plane made an emergency landing in Omsk, Siberia, where Alexei spent two days in a coma before the Kremlin allowed a plane to fly him to Germany on August 22, 2020. There, and also later in laboratories in France and Sweden, doctors determined he was exposed to the nerve gas chemical weapon, Novichok, the same poison that nearly killed the former Russian spy, Sergei Skripal, in England. On Tuesday, September 8, 2020, a masked man threw a foul-smelling liquid into the offices of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation in Novosibirsk, Siberia. By Wednesday, September 9, German officials announced the attack on Navalny forced them to reconsider Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, which already is a source of controversy in Germany and Poland. Although Mr. Navalny came out of his coma on Monday, September 7, 2020, and could walk a short distance by September 14, German physicians remain uncertain about the extent of his long-term recovery. German doctors released Mr. Navalny from the hospital on September, 22, 2020. He will remain in Germany for rehabilitation but has expressed his intention to return to Russia, where court orders have frozen his bank accounts and, on August 27, 2020, seized his apartment to prevent it from being "sold, donated, or mortgaged." Knowing Mr. Navalny will be greeted with a rousing rally when he returns to Moscow, Putin certainly is planning to counter his reception. It is interesting to note how enthusiastic Vladimir Putin was about Siberia, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited him in 2010. He took her to a map in his dacha's private office to show her the areas where he was involved in saving Siberian tigers and polar bears from extinction. An earlier post, "North Pole Flag," also details Russia's continuing interest in the Arctic.

Can Democracy Be Exported?

Before accepting as an article of faith the glib notion that Russia, Iraq, and other countries with traditions of authoritarian regimes cannot change, consider the observations of Nabeel Khoury, a retired US foreign service officer with extensive experience in the Middle East. Interviewed by Thomas L. Friedman, on c-span's "Book TV" January 15, 2020, Dr. Khoury questioned this assumption. Basically, he said the freedoms in the First Amendment of the US Constitution have universal appeal.

     During President Trump's impeachment trial, Congressional representatives often mentioned the wisdom of the small group who collaborated on the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. In essence, Dr. Khoury recommends a transition to democracy requires similar components: a small cadre of smart influencers and a plan. I was reminded of the intellectuals who gathered at Kavarna Slavia, Prague's Art Deco cafe, to plot Czechoslovakia's "Velvet Revolution."

     That is not to say, democratic changes are free of bloody combat, When Hong Kong's democracy activists first protested China's attempt to void the 1997 Sino-British agreement designed to govern for fifty years after London handed its colony over to Chinese rule, many assumed Beijing quickly would crush resistance. That was eight months ago. In that time, clashes with police and injuries have occurred, but Hong Kong's determination seems to have helped strengthen the determination of nearby Taiwan, another island governed by China, to re-elect a pro-democracy government on January 11, 2020.

     Just as violence can be expected to accompany a transition to democracy, factions within democratic movements also are likely. Authoritarian governments fail to satisfy not only the employment opportunities sought by educated young people in the Middle East and elsewhere, but in Russia, for example, they can fail to accommodate the needs of pensioners who resist increasing the age when they can draw benefits. Some seek freedom from corrupt officials who rob national economies, and others emphasize the desire for personal freedom to express their opinions and to live and work in humane conditions. The earlier marches Alexei Navalny led in Russia sought democratic reform, but he found protests against corruption had more appeal.

     If teachers guided students through the process of writing a Classroom Constitution, their students would see for themselves how factions would emerge to complicate the process. Students would come to appreciate how difficult it is to define the powers and responsibilities Articles would assign to a teacher, students, and administrators, as well as to create mechanisms for resolving disputes.

    Democracy brings with it a battle of ideas, once waged in pamphlets; now in social media. The highly-educated citizens China depends on for technological military and commercial advances value more leisure and call for shorter hours and fewer work days. They also value internet access free of censorship and figure out how to use Western sites both for technological tips and as a means to escape government oversight. On the other hand, new rural arrivals in China's metropolitan areas seek to fulfill basic needs for education, health care, and housing. 

     In order to fashion a democratic structure agreeable to all, masterful leaders need to study political theory and constitutional compromises. The US founders did not share the same objectives. Some owned slaves and others were abolitionists. Some preferred a strong central government; others clung to states' rights. When a rash of countries achieved independence from colonial powers after World War II, Dr. Lorna Hahn envisioned a way global experts could help satisfy the needs of newly independent countries. For 20 years, she sponsored forums and personal contacts that brought together a variety of scholars, such as attorneys experienced in writing constitutions, and leaders from developing countries at an Association on Third World Affairs. 

     For more echoes of Dr. Khoury's belief in the persistent universal quest for freedom that democratic systems of government provide, check out the earlier posts: "Why Do They Love Us?" and "Don't Give Up On Us."

China Feels Winds of Change

Not only has the US President tired of China's theft of intellectual property and lopsided trade balance, but Malaysia's new 93-year-old prime minister, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, is fed up with loans for Beijing's worldwide Belt and Road Initiative. Labeling China's project "new colonialism," Dr. Mohamad traveled to Beijing to cancel the previous Malaysian government's agreement to finance a rail line and two pipelines for an inflated $20 billion (China may, however, have a way to regain these contracts, if Beijing turns over Jho Low, who was the mastermind of a financial scam in Malaysia). Sierra Leone's new president, Julius Maada Bio, also told China it canceled the previous administration's contract to build a new airport, since the existing one is underutilized.

     Despite heavy Chinese spending in support of Abdulla Yameen in the Maldives, the atolls that occupy a key position to monitor trade in the Indian Ocean, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih won a surprise victory in that country's September, 2018 presidential election.

     Chinese citizens also were none too happy in September, 2018, when they learned President Xi Jinping, at a meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, committed another $60 billion to 53 African countries after committing $60 billion in 2015. Censors quickly removed social media criticism that claimed loans would not be repaid and aid was needed for domestic projects.

     China's unabashed interest in Africa's mineral commodities and growing market is arousing dormant European competition. Following his trip to China to inquire about funding for infrastructure projects, President Buhari of Nigeria received visits by French President, Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and British prime minister, Theresa May. It was Mrs. May's first trip to former British colonies in five years.

     At home, Tiananmen Square did not end demonstrations in China in 1989. Labeled "picking quarrels and causing trouble," "public-order disturbances," strikes by workers in factories and service industries, or just plain incidents, the Communist Party still tries to tamp out what it considers threats to peace and security by arresting demonstrators and those who post social media information about the protests. Despite these government crack downs, protests continue. In 2016, for example, parents of dead children, whose only children were born during the era of China's one-child policy, took to the streets in Beijing. This year, parents protested a local government's decision to transfer children from nearby schools to distant ones. Whether land is seized by local officials, soldiers demand higher pensions, or a minority wants to practice religion, state controls continue to spark tensions.

     China fears large movements, such as members with loyalties to international  trade union organizations or religions (Muslim, Buddhist, Shinto, or Christian).  The government is wary of any large gathering. Security keeps visitors out of Hongya, the Dalai Lama's birthplace in March, when in 1959, a demonstration against Chinese rule in Tibet led to the Dalai Lama's exile and the dissolution of his government there. During the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, police canceled the Norlha Basketball Invitational tournament in China's Tibetan region. The Public Security Bureau feared the large crowd of spectators the tournament would attract in the Dalai Lama's former domain. (Also see the later posts, "Challenging Chinese New Year" and "Playgrounds Welcome March Basketball.")

Successful Revolutions Require Organization

Massive rallies and marches fail to result in change, unless they are supported by organizations. It takes political parties to win elections, military forces to stage a coup, pressure from organized religions, and labor unions to change corporations and institutions of learning.

     Individuals with ideas for reform can write books, but organizations need to put these ideas into operational form. When would-be reformers approach Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, for her endorsement, she asks if they can muster a group of at least one thousand. Crowdfunding on social media suggests one way to gain support for causes.

     Where are groups already assembled? On college campuses, war and South Africa's apartheid protesters gained traction. Members of Jewish temples, Muslim mosques, African-American and other Christian churches share common causes.

     In Prague, dissidents hung out at the Art Deco cafe, Kavarna Slavia, to plot the Velvet Revolution that ended communism in Czechoslovakia. The Cafe Gallery and Bassiani night clubs in Tbilisi, Georgia, now attract young people ready to break out of post-Soviet police and interior ministry restraints and to embrace liberalized Western culture. The clubs serve as a gathering space, not only for locals, but also for tourists, rappers, and DJs with European followings. Young Russians received social media news of a club protest that led demonstrators to the steps of Georgia's parliament.

Venezuela Shows Need to Beware of Government Actions during Crises

Due in part to conflict erupting during an ongoing economic crisis, the first baseball player from Venezuela to be inducted into Cooperstown's Hall of Fame was absent from the ceremony honoring past greats at this year's All Star Game. Luis Aparicio, the celebrated, base-stealing Major League shortstop who lives in Maracaibo, is just one of the Venezuelans who has been affected by the food and medicine shortages caused by the world's falling oil prices that used to finance the country's economy.

     Street sit-downs by citizens, barricades set on fire by masked young men, and public rosary-praying by members of religious orders have led Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro to:

1. Send Venezuela's National Guard troops to fire tear gas into protesters from highway overpasses,
2. Postpone regional elections, 
3. Support the Supreme Court's attempt to strip the National Assembly of its powers.

     In her new book, No Is Not Enough, Naomi Klein recounts case after case where governments have used crises to blame scapegoats and to impose measures they have been longing to enact. Fear and confusion enable governments to get away with actions that would be unthinkable in normal times. But whether its economic collapse, natural disasters, election fraud, war, or cyber attack, there's no clear choice between the powers a government needs to deal with a problem and those the government has been looking for an opportunity to grab.

     During wars, history shows the United States passed Alien and Sedition Laws to deport or imprison male subjects of enemy countries and to punish those who published anti-government material; suspended habeus corpus which requires persons to be lawfully charged with a crime before they are detained; and sent Japanese citizens to internment camps.

     Just as governments may be ready to cut funding for education and Social Security to fund a military buildup, to muzzle the press, or to increase surveillance during a crisis, the public needs to be ready to come together to support voting rights, to defend the independence of courts, to demand constitutional guarantees, and, most of all, with a fierce determination not to repeat mistakes of the past. Will citizens be up to the task of discerning which powers a government needs for the crisis at hand?

Foreign Experiences Teach Students Hard Lessons

Otto Warmbier's plight is a sad reminder that international travel subjects students to the laws of foreign countries. In North Korea, Warmbier was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor for, what the local government considered, illegally removing a propaganda poster. He was returned to the United States in a coma and died.

     No matter how sympathetic students are with the causes that bring protesters to the streets in Moscow, Cairo, or Beijing, they need to remember that by joining a march they risk testing the limited power of diplomacy to release them from arrest or detention. When local governments have strict drug laws and penalties for photographing military guards and installations, ignorance is no defense from local prosecution. The time to write an article, give a speech, or take any other action about international injustices and harsh penalties is when a student is safely home.

     Without offering international opportunities, colleges and universities realize they would fail to prepare students for their future careers. In response to increased study abroad, the U.S. State Department has a one-stop information destination: studentsabroad.state.gov. One of the most important programs offered is STEP, the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program. By enrolling with the nearest U.S. Embassy or Consulate in the country a student plans to visit, the Embassy/Consulate knows where to issue a warning to leave the country if a coup or civil war is imminent and where to send news of a family emergency.

     At the State Department's general site for international travel, travel.state.gov, students will find information about:

• passports and visas,
• worldwide alerts and travel warnings for particular countries
• what to do in all sorts of emergencies, including lost passports, arrests & detentions, medical problems, and natural disasters.

Parents and students alike are well advised to go to travel.state.gov to learn ahead of time: The State Department's Role in a Crisis.


   

Russia's Alternative to Putin

Does Russia have a viable alternative to Putin? The more than a thousand protesters, who were detained when they marched with Alexey Navalny in Moscow, and the nearly 100 other Russian cities on Sunday, March 26, 2017, think so.

     Unlike the Chinese leaders who, realizing personal gain and other appearances of corruption undermine public support, adopted the Supervision Law that places everyone in the country's public sector under anti-corruption supervision (Under the guise of searching for corruption, Chinese authorities, of course, also position themselves to uncover other prosecutable violations), Putin and the oligarchs he enabled to accumulate their wealth continue to present their soft underbelly for Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation to document on his blog. Someone's $15 million worth of gold bars even fell out of a cargo plane leaving Yakutsk, Russia, according to TIME magazine (April 2, 2018). A Chinese spokesperson said China is willing to lend a hand to other countries that need help fighting corruption. Neighboring Russia is yet to take up the offer.

     Moscow's cyberpropaganda concerns U.S. and European democracies, and Putin's adviser, Andrey Krutskikh, brags that Russia is "at the verge of having something in the information arena which will allow us to talk to the Americans as equals"(TIME magazine, May 29, 2017). But these so-called "triumphs" do nothing to prevent government corruption and a failing economy, based on falling oil prices, from motivating protests in Russian streets.

     While Vladimir Putin basked in his March 18, 2018 sham election victory, ordinary Russian citizens continued to see their disposable income and standard of living deteriorate. By 2018. senior citizens protested Putin's plan to raise the age when they could retire and claim pensions. Although Putin promises to make Russia a great power again, he, like little North Korea's leader, stakes Russia's claim to world respect for its spheres of influence on new nuclear weapons (In December, 2018, he showed a new missile reaching Florida.) rather than the thriving economies and nuclear weapons that support the powerful positions of the United States and China. Where are Russia's wind farms, medical advances, and hybrid seeds to end world hunger?

    Putin has problems: volatile oil revenues far below a once per barrel high near $150; failure to engineer relief from sanctions from the Trump administration; a younger generation getting its news from social media rather than official, state-owned radio and TV stations; corruption favoring oligarchs; a war dragging on in Syria; and a revolt by the Orthodox church in Ukraine. Just as China fears the competing influence of international religions and locks up Uighur Muslims in re-education camps and caused Buddhism's Dalai Lama to flee Tibet, Russia fears the independence of the Orthodox church in Ukraine, supported by Patriarch Bartholomen in Constantinople and Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko. Russia's President Putin, who considers the allegiance of the Russian Orthodox church, including in Ukraine, critical to his authority, threatened to punish those who worshiped in churches affiliated with Constantinople and raised concern that Russia would take over Orthodox cathedrals and monasteries not affiliated with Moscow. The West needs to be prepared to respond to any excuse Putin can use to further strengthen Russia's grip on Ukraine or former Soviet satellites.

     The Kremlin has employed various strategies to silence Navalny and prevent him from running for President against Putin. After he was charged with stealing timber from a state-run forestry in 2013, he was sentenced to five years in prison, despite a lack of evidence. In protest, 10,000 took to Moscow's streets and failed to leave. The next morning Navalny was released. Following his release he ran for Mayor of Moscow and won 27% of the vote to come in second to Putin's candidate in a six-candidate field.

     Later Alexey Navalny and his brother, Oleg, were charged with shipping company fraud. Again a conviction was rendered with no evidence. Oleg was sentenced to three and a half years in a penal colony, where he has been punished repeatedly for minor infractions and his requests for parole were refused twice. Alexey received a suspended three and a half year sentence and house arrest. Russia was using a traditional method of silencing one family member by imprisoning others. But Alexey cut the tracking bracelet off his ankle, announced what he had done on his blog, and started leaving his family's apartment at will. However, his fraud case is used to keep his name off the ballot in  presidential elections, and, for staging protest rallies, he served 30 days in jail in 2018 and was re-arrested again two minutes after his release.

     In the later blog, "29 Countries Influence 7 Billion People," see what the former leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, wrote about Vladimir Putin and democracy.