Oscar Nominations Enlighten the World

This year's Oscar nominations for live action short films provide a view of France, Denmark, Hungary, Spain, and Switzerland that is both particular to those countries and inspiring to countries throughout the world.

In Ennemis Interieurs (Enemies Within) and Silent Nights we see French concern for residents from Algeria who might be terrorists and a man from Ghana who finds in Denmark abuse from local and Arab neighbors rather than the income he expected to send to his family back in Africa. In both cases disillusioned men do things they never intended, and we wonder if their new countries could have acted differently to prevent these outcomes.

Sing from Hungary won the Oscar in this category on February 26, 2017. This film tells the story of a friendly elementary school girl with a heart and a new girl who is told by the chorus director to just mime the words to songs because she doesn't have a good voice. By convincing all the children in the chorus to mime the words to every song at a competition, the two clever girls undermine the director who they consider unfair. Children everywhere in the world could benefit from seeing how to treat new kids in their schools and how they can work together to right an injustice.          

Spain's Timecode gives hope to everyone who has ever had a boring job. After his shift as a security guard who watches the cameras that keep an eye on a garage parking lot, he uses the whole garage as a dance floor to practice his moves. The woman who takes over after him sees his performance and decides to do her own routine for the cameras. After the male security guard sees her dancing, they join up for a duet that the manager sees when he is introducing a new guard to the job. The film ends with the new employee telling the manager, "I don't know how to dance."

A woman's daily gesture of waving a Swiss flag at a passing TGV train before she rides her bicycle to her pastry shop leads to an exchange of messages and gifts of cheese between the woman and the train's engineer in  La Femme et le TGV. You never know where simple gestures might lead. 

Space Newcomers

Joining India's mission to Mars, that has been sending back data since September, 2014, are eight satellites, three built in Algeria, that India launched into different orbits on September 26, 2016.

     Nigeria has launched five satellites into orbit and plans to send an astronaut into space by 2030.

     From French Guiana on September 14, 2016, Peru launched a French-built satellite to monitor weather and internal security.

     Brazil is assembling its sixth satellite to be launched on a Chinese rocket by December, 2018.

(For earlier news about space activity, see the post, "Space Explorers.") 

   

Falling Commodity Prices Spur Diversification in Emerging Markets

Commodity exporting countries that have depended on the Chinese market have been hard hit by the slide in China's economy. Zambia, for example, relies on copper exports to China, which consumes 40% of the mineral's global output, for 70% of its foreign exchange earnings and 25 to 30% of its government revenue. Like Nigeria, which has depended on petroleum exports that are declining in value, Zambia sees a new need for economic diversification.

Check out countries heavily dependent on commodity exports:

• Bauxite: Indonesia, Jamaica, Brazil
• Chromite: South Africa, Zimbabwe, Albania
• Coal: Indonesia
• Cobalt: Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Copper: Chile, Kazakhstan, Zambia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru
• Iron Ore: Brazil
• Lithium: Argentina, Chile, Bolivia
• Manganese: South Africa, Gabon, Brazil, Ghana
• Molybenum: Romania, Chile
• Nickel: (Indonesia banned exports to China), New Caledonia, Madagascar
• Petroleum: Saudi Arabia, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Nigeria
• Platinum: South Africa
• Tin: Indonesia, Myanmar
• Tungsten: Myanmar, Bolivia
• Uranium: South Africa, Namibia, Niger, Kazakhstan
• Vanadium: South Africa
• Zinc: Peru, like Australia, has cut production and jobs 

Look Beyond Africa's Current Woes

Falling commodity prices and a terrorist attack in Tunisia haven't prevented the private equity Abraaj Group's institutional investors, pension funds, and development finance institutions from making a total $1.37 billion investment, mainly in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

Arif Naqvi, Abraaj's founder, sees middle class consumption doubling in the region between 2014 and 2024. Consequently, what the fund looks for is well-managed, mid-market businesses where the fund can influence strategy and growth in fields that benefit from the growing middle class. These fields include: healthcare, education, consumer goods and services, business services, materials, and logistics.

Remember when Lucy in the "Peanuts" cartoon said what she wanted as a gift was real estate. Grandparents might look beyond the latest toys and video games advertised on TV and give their grandchildren a stake in a fund with emerging market investments. It won't be a favorite gift now, but when the high costs of college and grad school come around, kids (and their parents) will be very grateful.

The Lure of Shale Oil Independence

With oil trading at over $70 a barrel, demand up, and questions about supply from Iran and elsewhere, interest in fracking has rebounded in September, 2018. Soft oil and gas prices in 2015 and 2016 had dampened enthusiasm for investments in shale oil. BHP Billiton, the Australian-based metals and energy company, took a $4.9 billion write-off in January, 2016, on its shale oil investment in the United States. In the short and medium term, BHP saw shale too expensive to compete with traditional oil and gas production.  BHP expected its shale investments to be profitable in the long run, however. As soon as crude edged toward $70 a barrel in early August, 2018, BHP sold its US shale holdings to BP for $10.5 billion.

     What if there is a shale oil deposit under your home? Fracking, which blasts oil and natural gas out of shale rock, has caused countries to ignore serious consequences. (See the earlier post, "North Pole Flag.")

      President Obama favored energy renewables over fracking. At the moment, wind and solar technologies need fossil fuel backups for windless, cloudy days and nighttime, but Bill Gates, who just announced his intention to invest a billion dollars in clean energy, said government investment in innovations research will lead to even more private investment in technologies that will overcome the need for fuels that contribute to greenhouse gases.

     While ignoring private property rights is just one of the problems associated with fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, protesters in England drew attention to the need to consider this fracking drawback by erecting a satiric sign outside the country home of British Prime Minister, David Cameron, this month. The sign apologized for the inconvenience caused by setting up fracking operations under his home without permission.

     With its economy dependent on income from oil and natural gas, Russia is said to be funding anti-fracking groups. While this may or may not be true, there are legitimate reasons for concern about the fracking process. To  release trapped oil and natural gas, at high pressure, companies pump fluid composed of 99% water and sand and 1% chemicals into dense rock formations thousands of feet below ground. Companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell, which has a contract with China's Sinopec Corp. to exploit shale gas deposits in the Sechuan Basin and Ordos, try to reassure people that the wells they drill are far below drinking water supplies and that they isolate water supplies from fracking fluids by inserting concrete and steel barriers into their wells. Considering the shortage of clean water in eight of the 20 countries with the largest shale gas resources, it does not seem wise to base the safety of water supplies on company assurances.

     Although Algeria, for example, is believed to have the world's third or fourth largest recoverable shale gas reserves, protesters are more concerned about potential damage to the delicate aquifer system that furnishes water for people, animals, and crops not only in Algeria, but also in Libya and Tunisia. Fear that Halliburton's $70 billion hydraulic fracking project would pollute ground water and disturb the environment set off a violent protest in Ain Salah, a rural Algerian town in the Sahara Desert. Early in 2015, demonstrations spread to at least three other towns and Algiers. Deep well drilling to increase the amount of water needed for fracking can have an impact on local water sources and a cumulative effect that causes water levels to drop in lakes farther away. Flowback of the water and chemicals used in fracking plus the radioactive materials picked up deep in the earth is stored in plastic-lined open pits at drilling sites. While some of this toxic stew is trucked away and treated to remove toxins, the rest is released into streams and rivers that pollute drinkable water.

    Since companies are not required to disclose what chemicals they are using, there is no way to test the effect they have underground. I am reminded of the birds on an island in the North Pacific Ocean who are dying because of eating debris from humans over 1,250 miles away. Although bottle caps, cigarette lighters, and razor blades thrown into the ocean disappear, they can do plenty of harm.

     The sand drilling companies blast into shale helps hold cracks open to let oil and natural gas flow to the wellhead. Mining this sand brings noise, truck and rail traffic, and fine silica dust pollution to the population in areas where often there are no nonmetallic mining laws to regulate the hours, trucking routes, and other aspects of sand mining operations. People living near (a half mile away or closer) a sand mine have developed asthma and needed to use an inhaler. They cannot open their windows and have to install air filtration systems in their homes. Since signing a contract with a sand mining company can make a landowner wealthy, individuals have an incentive to ignore the disappearing hills, lung damage, and other consequences that can come with sand mining. Product manufacturers and commodity producers, however, that are having shipping delay problems because they are competing for rail capacity with frac sand are beginning to complain.

    Also, sand mines can use between 420,000 and two million gallons of water a day. To remove impurities from the sand, the chemical, polyacrylamide, which has traces of a known carcinogen, can enter surface and ground water at a mine site from wastewater ponds.

     The Food and Water Watch organization, which began sponsoring a Global Frackdown three years ago, opposes UN efforts to include fracking in its Sustainable Energy for All Initiative. The many problems associated with fracking do not justify including the process in the same category as renewable wind and solar energy sources. The organization, Americans Against Fracking, which pulls together groups working to ban fracking helped New York ban the process after a two-year investigation concluded that fracking could not be done safely. A bill now pending in the U.S. Congress would ban fracking on public lands, where it already has begun in Pennsylvania's Allegheny National Forest, and Virginia has agreed to allow it in the George Washington National Forest.

     Finally, there is concern about the possibility that fracking can cause earthquakes, such as the small ones geologists discovered in Ohio in April, 2014. Clearly, there is a need for tough permit requirements, when a fault already exists near drilling operations.

     As more and more people around the world rely on industrial jobs and demand heat, air conditioning, and cars, care for the environment will come up against pressure to find new sources of oil and natural gas. What projects will students develop to help adults see the unseen effects of dangerous extraction methods?