What Happens After Wars?

 Wise decision making does not need data from another war. Human history already has enough data about the positive and negative results of wars to make additional surveys unnecessary. Marathon runners race 26 miles in the Olympics, because the Greeks defeated the Persians in 490 B.C. But no battle is responsible for Olympic figure skating.

     Clearly, wars have resulted in: disarmament, unemployed military personnel and weapon designers and manufacturers, collective security, land grabs and new borders, displaced populations, inflation, economic collapse, new financing for rebuilding, foreign aid, competing ideologies, independence and self determination for ethnic populations, release of prisoners, and medical advances. The question is: could positive outcomes from wars be achieved without bloodshed?

     Students attend Model UN meetings to discuss current world problems, and each year the Foreign Policy Association (fpa.org) prepares a Great Decisions Briefing Book and DVD to guide group discussions and provide topics for student essays. There also could be summits where students decide what wartime achievements could be gained without wars. (In 2019, the Great Decisions' discussion topics include: nuclear negotiations, cyberwarfare, U.S.-China trade and U.S.-Mexican relations, regional conflict in the Middle East, refugees/migration, European populism.)

     The challenge is to find out how similar subjects have been handled successfully after past wars. Has there ever been a way to incorporate a country's former rebel and military leaders into a productive government? Or could the Kurds who now live in Iraq, Turkey, and Syria break away peacefully and form their own country the way the Czech Republic (Czechia in English) and Slovakia did? Instead, as U.S. troops began pulling out of Syria, President Trump has called on Turkey's government, which is responsible for harsh treatment of its Kurds, to protect the Kurds the U.S. troops fought with in Syria, a questionable idea.

   

A New Start

As 2019 approaches, it's time for a new start. An African-American panelist discussing race relations in America observed the Civil Rights Movement offered a more promising starting point from which to consider future race relations than the era of slavery. Nelson Mandela emerged from apartheid and 28 years in prison in South Africa with the same idea. Basically, he asked, what is gained by doing the same thing to whites as they did to blacks, when blacks are in power?

     When blacks gained power in neighboring Zimbabwe, the government ignored Mandela's advice, seized white farms, plunged the country's economy into a rapid decline, and left the population dependent on food aid to avoid starvation.

     The point is, at the beginning of 2019, we are free to choose where we want to begin. There are some great starting points: the 10 Commandments, the U.S. Declaration of Independence's declaration that all men are created equal, and the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Beginning 2019 with this 70-year-old declaration in mind, countries could avoid pre-World War II conditions: genocide, refugee migrations, Middle East conflict, abortion, proliferation of weapons, human trafficking, squandering natural resources, and polluting the environment.

     Happy New Year!
   

Light Travels Faster than the Days before Christmas

I don't know if observations like this led to Einstein's quantum theory or his theory of relativity, but I do know that all the observations he made before he bothered to begin talking led to his later work.
At a presentation by James Costa, when he was discussing his new book, Darwin's Backyard; How Small Experiments Led to a Big Theory, which includes DIY experiments kids could do, a member of the audience asked him if he thought experiments came before theory or vice versa. Acknowledging, it was a bit like the chicken and the egg, he said he thought observation and curiosity probably came first.

This got me thinking about what has happened in the Middle East since the Arab Spring in 2011. On the nightly news, I well remember seeing a smiling Secretary of State Hillary Clinton surrounded by smiling Egyptian faces in Tahrir Square then. Just as vividly, I remember Mrs. Clinton responding, during her presidential campaign of 2016, to a Congressional committee blaming her for U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens' death in Benghazi, Libya. Curious about what changes took place between 2011 and 2016, I looked for answers in Steven A. Cook's book, False Dawn.

Members of the administration of George W. Bush initially saw the Arab uprisings in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia as confirmation of the wisdom of 2003's invasion, Operation Iraqi Freedom. Historical observation could have predicted the Middle East had not been waiting for a foreign intervention and occupation to bring democracy to the region. Even so, once protesters overthrew the "stable" authoritarian regimes U.S. policy traditionally supported, U.S. administrations continued to believe they should be involved in the democratization of the Middle East. If for no other reason, Washington continued to provide economic, political, diplomatic, and military support to countries allied with its U.S. interests there.

The trouble with trying to bring democracy to the Middle East is, as observation shows, the region has no Magna Carta tradition nor a political-philosophical underpinning of John Locke and Thomas Jefferson. What it does have is a legacy of pan-Arabism expansion, the Muslim religion, authoritarian systems supported by fear, and tribal fragmentation. Instead of democracy reaching the Middle East, maybe  observation could have told the world to expect terrorists and social media to push an Arab-Muslim agenda West?

Given the actual situation in the Middle East, how could a New Year's Resolution to use curiosity and new observations come up with ways to satisfy the peaceful desires of people, not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world? In what ways could travel, technologies, new roles of women as entrepreneurs and politicians, education, natural and man-made disasters, and medical advances foster peaceful changes?

Can't Find a Job or Career; Create One

Throughout the world, younger and younger entrepreneurs and performers are making use of websites, YouTube, and Kickstarter-like platforms to, yes, kickstart their own ventures. Based on Time magazine's report (Nov. 9, 2015) that only 26% of the global workforce has a good job that provides at least 30 hours of work for a weekly paycheck, young people need to look to themselves to create their futures. Even in the USA, according to Time's data, only 44% of the workforce has a good job. In China, the percentage is 28, and in Burkina Faso, it is 5%.

     Under these conditions, starting a business, not-for-profit organization, or any other type of career by yourself or with friends is an attractive alternative. A how-to book is here to help. Crazy is a Compliment: the Power of Zigging When Everyone Else Zags is written by Linda Rottenberg,         co-founder and chief executive officer of Endeavor, an international organization dedicated to helping the new, fast-growing businesses of entrepreneurs. She provides real life experiences from emerging countries in Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, as well as from developed markets in the United States and Europe. For example, Rottenberg tells the story of Wences Casares, who was born on a sheep farm in Argentina. While he was in high school, he started painting and selling T-shirts. Then, he downloaded all the unedited telephone numbers from his village, corrected them, and published and sold a directory that also carried paid advertising.

Here are a few of Rottenberg's helpful conclusions:

• Consider stability the friend of the status quo and chaos the friend of the entrepreneur who sees opportunities where others see obstacles.
• It's a common misperception that an entrepreneur has to start with personal wealth, an ivy league degree, and a Rolodex full of contacts. In reality, Rottenberg has found the opposite is true; they most often lack connections, an elite old school network, and a trust fund.
• When you first get an idea for a new venture, don't tell anyone about it. Family and friends will either say it sounds great because they love/like you, or they will discourage you. One way to get objective feedback is to ask for it on a crowdfunding site.
• Although some risk is necessary, just invest enough to create a minimum viable product or a relatively small adaptation, not a mind-blowing prototype or a multitude of different products. As Henry Ford said, "Nothing is particularly hard if you divide it into small jobs." Take incremental steps, get feedback, and adjust. You don't necessarily need a business plan which probably will change as soon as you start doing something.

     Rottenberg also has a section that alerts would-be entrepreneurs to the strengths and weaknesses their personalities bring to their new enterprises. She terms visionaries like Mark Zuckerbert, Dreamers; charismatic personalities like Oprah, Stars; those who can reenergize traditional businesses like Ikea founder, Ingvar Kamprad, Transformers; and strategic, analytical thinkers like Bill Gates, Rocketships. Which personality type of entrepreneur are you?

Know the Issues

When world leaders speak, it is a good opportunity to remind students that The Daily Show and Saturday Night Live's "Weekend Update" are not their only sources of world news.

     There are at least two ways for students to participate in structured discussions of foreign policy. Model UN conferences held in classrooms, schools, and regional, national, and international venues attract more than 400,000 middle school, high school, and college students annually. Conference participants, who act as country ambassadors to the United Nations, study and discuss global issues. The website, cyberschoolbus.un.org, provides information about Model UN sessions. The website also provides a list of UN publications that describe the UN, its declaration of human rights, environmental programs, and other topics for K-12 students.

     At fpa.org, the Foreign Policy Association's website, students and adults can find full details about a Headline Series and Great Decisions program. Discussions using the Headline Series are limited to a single geographic area or topic, such as nuclear weapons. On the other hand, a Great Decisions briefing book presents nonpartisan information about eight new foreign policy issues every year. In 2016, the discussion topics are: Shifting Alliances in the Middle East, The Rise of ISIS, The Future of Kurdistan, International Migration, Korean Choices, The UN after 2015, Climate Geopolitics, and Cuba and the US. Each topic includes a television episode and a quiz. Students are invited to suggest topics for future discussions.

     In World Peace and Other 4th Grade Achievements, John Hunter writes about how children have used a World Peace Game to solve world issues. And in his speech to the United Nations in 2012, President Obama quoted South Africa's Nelson Mandela and India's Gandhi. Reading, on their own, the writings of inspiring world leaders can broaden a student's perspective on global issues.