Fools Aren't the Only Ones Who Soon Part with Their Money

Money is part of our lives from morning to night and, if we are earning interest, even while we sleep, writes John Hope Bryant in his book, The Memo: Five Rules for Your Economic Liberation. All the things and services in our lives cost money, and we don't have any control over the prices charged for everything we need and use.

     But, you say, we do control what things and services we choose to buy. After examining human behavior, Nobel-prize-winning economist Richard H. Thaler challenges that idea. What Thaler has to say in Nudge, the book he co-authored with Cass R. Sunstein, expands on the financial literacy both he and Bryant see as a valuable foundation for happiness in every child, woman, and man in the world.

     Financial literacy, like literacy itself, can begin at an early age, when a child learns it's dumb to take two quarters for one dollar. Thaler also used a Halloween trick-or-treater example to show how the investment choices people are given can affect their decisions. If children were to visit two adjacent homes that both offered Three Musketeer and Milky Way candy bars on Halloween, each child might select a different bar at each home. In another situation, if these children could visit only one home that offered the same two different bars and were allowed to each select two bars, they might choose two of the kind they liked best. What would happen if investors were given a choice of putting their retirement money in a fund composed of all stocks and one composed of all, more conservative and less risky, bonds? Most would split their funds half and half, just like the children visiting two homes. Another group of investors could put their money in an all-stock fund and a "balanced" fund that was invested half in stocks and half in bonds. Although they split their money half and half, their retirement depended on the performance of 3/4 stocks, more like the result of the children who took two of the same kind of candy bars.

     Thaler cautions everyone about human failings. He cites a distinction between rapid, instinctive automatic thinking and reflective, rational thinking and presents a problem to demonstrate.
A bat and ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
     Cost of ball = x
     Cost of bat = $1.00 + x
     Cost of ball and bat = $1.10
     x + $1.00 + x = $1.10
                       2x = $1.10 - $1.00
                       2x = .10
                         x = .05 NOT .10

     In Nudge, Thaler suggests the world could design slight nudges that, like a friend, could help our automatic thoughts make better choices and avoid the bad ones. Students would see the fruit and yogurt before the cookies and ice cream in the school lunch line. Best choices would be the default options offered by manufacturers, insurers, sales people, mortgage brokers, and credit card companies. But Thaler knows our best interests are not everyone's objectives. Reflective, rational thinking really needs to come into play, when there are many options and/or humans have little experience, poor information, and delayed or infrequent feedback about mistakes or success. Firms have a great incentive to cater to irrational beliefs. Suggesting everyone is doing something, like paying for a warranty on a small appliance, can provide a kind of peer pressure. The financial aid staff at colleges and doctors, for example, may be receiving gifts to recommend certain private lenders and expensive new drugs.

      Humans tend to cling to the status quo, the monetary decisions they have made in the past, such as buying a new bathing suit every year even if they rarely go swimming. If we choose the TV show we want to watch on NBC at 7 pm, we'll be watching NBC shows until we go to bed. If our first vote for President was a Republican candidate, we may never change political parties. Thaler suggests, "Sometimes it's good to learn what people unlike us like....If you're a Democrat,...you might want to see what Republicans think; no party can possibly have a monopoly on wisdom." He also recommends diversifying investment portfolios. 

Commodity Crush Careers

Commodity traders keep an eye on prices like the following every day.

Per day prices

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Commodities            1/18                1/24               1/31                   2/1                   2/3

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Cotton                     72.3                                                                                        76.3

Corn                                                363.5

Coffee                    149.5                152.2             149.6                                       146.8

Cocoa                     2229                 2202              2091                                        2063

Rough rice               9.94                  9.98              9.54                9.53                   9.51

Soybeans                                                              33.83

Sugar                      20.95                20.55            20.49                                        21.3

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But commodity traders are not the only ones whose careers involve commodity prices. Whether we live in Toronto or Timbuktu, trading money for goods and bartering goods for goods are what we do all our lives. On the global level there are careers in shipping agricultural commodities that go into what we eat and the mineral commodities that go into what we use. Crude oil is the most traded commodity in the world and coffee is the second. 

The prices buyers are willing to sign a contract to pay for commodities roll across the bottom of the CNBC station every trading day. You also can find commodity prices on the internet. I like to check them occasionally to see if there is an up trend or down trend, like the above prices show for cocoa, or up and down volatility.

What each quoted price means is complex. The price quoted for coffee beans applies to 37,500 pounds and the price for sugar applies to 112,000 pounds. These are the amounts that fit in one overseas shipping container. Since a ship might carry 18,000 containers, you can figure how much a company would pay for one shipload of a given amount of pounds.

Commodity prices are also important to those who price consumer goods. In the case of coffee beans, there are the additional costs of roasting the beans, repackaging the 250 bags that carry 37,5000 pounds of coffee on ships into the smaller bags or cans a consumer wants, distributing the coffee to thousands of stores, and advertising a brand.

How to increase prices

When a crop is harvested in countries that produce agricultural commodities, such as coffee, farmers will be offered lower prices if a harvest is large and marketed at one time. If a harvest is smaller because of drought or disease or because it is stored and sold gradually, prices will increase. Countries also can increase coffee export revenue, if they develop roasting facilities. Consequently, there are potential careers in water and pest control, storage, and processing. Some of these same subjects are covered in the earlier posts, "I Love Coffee, I Love Tea" and "Become a Discriminating Chocolate Consumer.")

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Worldwide booms and recessions are a matter of concern to those whose careers in companies and countries depend on demand for the mineral commodities used in industrial production. Politicians in mineral-rich countries are tempted to take out loans in good times that voters will not want to repay with higher taxes in bad economic times. (The earlier post, "Falling Commodity Prices Spur Diversification in Emerging Markets," lists some of the counties affected by demand for certain mineral commodities.)

Commodities offer a vast field of career opportunities now and probably even more in the future as AI, robotics, and sensors are incorporated. For those interested in investing, the site, investopedia.com, covers the basics and more.