New Beginning for Zambia and Zimbabwe Falters

In the unfortunate country, where a protected lion named Cecil met his fate at the hands of a trophy hunter, voters braved intimidation to elect members of parliament and a new president on July 30, 2018. But violence began tearing up the country days after the election. Not only losing candidates and their supporters protested the less than free and fair election, but winners in the Zanu-PF party and the military also split into competing factions.

     A rise in fuel prices on January 12, 2019 again set off protests, sent soldiers into the streets to kill 8, and blocked internet access until January 16. At the same time, President Mnangagwa departed for Moscow, where he agreed to give the Russian company, Alrosa, access to Zimbabwe's diamond mines.

     After World War II, Great Britain grouped Zimbabwe (then Rhodesia), Zambia (then Northern Rhodesia), and Malawi (then Nyasaland) into the Central African Federation. London's plan made perfect sense economically, but not politically. Located within Northern Rhodesia, valuable exports from the Copper Belt, shared with the Congo's Katanga Province, already traveled south by rail through Rhodesia to ports in South Africa. Rhodesia, named for Cecil Rhodes, whose guns defeated Chief Lobengula of the Ndebele people who inspired the costumes for Black Panther, had a developed agricultural economy with farms capable of feeding the region and generating tobacco and chinchilla pelt exports. Yet to be mined rich deposits of gold and platinum still exist. Migrant workers from Nyasaland were used to working Rhodesia's farms. They would consult their lists of good and bad employers before agreeing where to work.

     The two most prosperous countries in the former federation, Zambia and Zimbabwe, struggle to get back on track. Zambia, one of the African countries that received debt forgiveness in 2005-2006 began spending freely just when copper prices tanked and a new regime increased the number of districts where it could reward leaders with graft. By 2018, Zambia defaulted on a Chinese loan repayment, and immediately Beijing was ready to begin talks to takeover ZESCO, Zambia's electric company, even though President Edgar Lungu claimed the Cabinet would have to approve such a measure. China already owns Zambia's national broadcaster, ZNBC.

     Black majorities in Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland broke away from white-ruled Rhodesia. Ian Smith, like South Africa's white leaders, clung to power, and, in 1965, he unilaterally declared Rhodesia's independence from Britain. Later, Zimbabwe also would leave the British Commonwealth.To wrest control from Smith, blacks, led by Robert Mugabe's Zanu party, launched a successful civil war in 1972. Mugabe would exercise dictatorial power in Zimbabwe from 1980 until a military coup led by his vice president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, ousted him in 2017.

     Mugabe failed to follow the advice of Nelson Mandela, South Africa's first black president after apartheid. (See Mandela's advice in the earlier post, "How to React When You've Been Wronged."). Doing unto Zimbabwe's white farmers what they had done to blacks, Mugabe's government seized the farms of white owners in 2000. The economic prosperity envisioned by Britain's plan for the Central African Federation disappeared, when whites quickly emigrated. Following the 2017 coup, Mnangagwa left Zimbabwe for a charm offensive designed to lure back white farmers who could feed the estimated 1.1 million to 2.5 million  people starving in his country.

     To avoid a runoff, a president in Zimbabwe needed to win over 50% of the vote. After a delay, 16 different polling stations reported exactly the same number of votes, and Mr. Mnangagwa won a slim 50.8% majority. His Zanu-PF's party candidates also won 145 of the 210 seats in the National Assembly. Rather than support a Zanu-PF leader who overthrew him, Robert Mugabe, who would die at age 95 on September 5, 2019, backed Nelson Chamisa from the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party, who received 44.3% of the vote, while the remaining votes were split among 21 presidential candidates. Six died, when the military quelled rioting in the capital, Harare, following the announcement of National Assembly votes. MDC voters, who are concentrated in Zimbabwe's cities, called the election unfair and a fraud. When the Constitutional Court rejected MDC's election challenge, members fled the country to escape violence.

     Most Zimbabweans live in rural areas where they depend on foreign food donations. By distributing food at rallies, the Zanu-PF military and traditional chiefs intimidate villagers to vote "the right way." Before the 2018 election, Catholic Church leaders attempted to counter fear, apathy, and violence used in past elections by recognizing the need to protect voters and by stressing a vote for the common good was a human right. Sister Mercy Shumbamhini took it upon herself to go to the streets to ask citizens what the common good meant to them. They answered: having enough to eat, health services, a job, a clean environment, dignity, good roads, and security. In other words, they wanted what citizens everywhere want.

     Zimbabwe entered a new election cycle starved for food, tourist and export dollars, and business investment to cover unpaid debts to the World Bank and African Development Bank. Initially, Mugabe's incompetent party loyalists, used to collecting bribes in their civil service positions, retained their jobs. But in an effort to demonstrate his determination to stabilize Zimbabwe's faltering economy and gain much needed IMF, British, and Chinese loans, President Mnangagwa replaced cronies with technocrats, including Ncube, his new finance minister.

      Funding still remains in doubt, since post-election violence caused lenders to back away from support for the new government. Inflation has soared. Everyone wants payment in US dollars instead of unbacked, government-printed zollars subject to devaluation. Goods, such as generators and building materials, and staples like sugar, maize, and gasoline, are in short supply as customers purchase everything they can before their money is worth even less.

      A 5G pilot project in rural Zimbabwe stands as a vestige of a once hopeful new beginning. Offering new hope, however, is the Friendship Bench organization founded by Zimbabwe psychiatrist, Dr. Dixon Chibanda. According to an article in TIME magazine (February 18-25, 2019), Dr. Chibanda's organization grew out of his advice to those with mental problems: Visit grandmothers. Friendship Bench trains grandmothers, who have time and a natural tendency to listen and guide, rather than tell people what to do, to use role playing and other behavior therapies. The medical journal, JAMA, published the positive benefits of the Friendship Bench approach.

     

Student Elections: Training for the Real Thing

Since votes in elections cause or hinder action, student elections offer a meaningful training ground for affecting change. Even massive demonstrations, such as the March for Our Lives of U.S. students demanding actions to eliminate gun violence, cannot have as great an impact as an elections where voters choose or defeat candidates, such as those funded by the National Rifle Association (NRA).

     Before student elections, urge student voters to discuss the elements of fair and winning elections.

Candidate selection: Should anyone be allowed to run? Should candidates need to get a certain number of signatures? Could committees select candidates? Should there be a primary election to narrow the choice of candidates? What affects a candidate's popularity? Research shows candidates can use status or likability models. Status comes from a person's visibility, dominance, and influence on a group. These candidates gain attention by bullying and disparaging voters and by exercising power over them with control of the media, a commanding voice, and even their height. Likability is related to treating people with respect, cooperating/compromising, and knowing how to help people feel good about themselves. A likable leader connects with people and involves everyone in creating group norms, harmony, and a solution everyone buys into.

Funding: What costs go into an election? Posters, flyers, giveaway items, ballots, voting booths, ballot boxes, travel expenses, communication, staff, including staff for accurate tabulation of ballots.  Who pays for each? Should there be a spending limit? Can candidates allowed to distribute candy or some other type of "bribe"?

Date of election and event scheduling: One day of voting or more? How soon after new students enter a school should an election be scheduled? Should those about to graduate vote for those who will attend next year? Select dates that do not conflict with other major events. When should elections be announced?

Length of campaign: Should campaigns have beginning and ending dates? or be open-ended?

Platform: What is most important to voters? Should voters be surveyed to identify main issues?
Can candidates get away with wild promises?  lies?

Campaign slogans: What to say? Negative or positive themes. How many words? Include candidate's name? Where to use slogan (posters, bumper stickers, yard signs, T-shirts, commercials)? I still remember this slogan a student used in a high school election campaign, "You will not be forgotten. Cast your vote for Kathy Hotten." Check out student election poster samples at
 postermywall.com/index.php/posters/search?s=student election.

Public events: Will each candidate have a campaign kickoff event? Will all candidates give a speech at an all school assembly? Will candidates visit each classroom? Will students be invited to submit questions a moderator could ask candidates at an assembly? How many events?

Dirty tricks:  What are some examples? How will hecklers by handled? Misplaced/stolen ballot boxes. Do you need security officers?

Voter eligibility: Need to develop voter lists. If those who check voter lists won't know everyone, how will voters identify themselves and be sure to only vote once? Print official ballots in a way they can't be copied (colored paper?)

If students have an opportunity to watch an election campaign in any country, they could write a short paper about their observations and make a prediction of whom they think will win.

Upcoming presidential elections in 2018

• Azerbaijan, April 11
• Montenegro, April 15
• Paraguay, April 22
• Venezuela, May 20
• Colombia, May 27
• Mexico, July 1
• Mali, July 29
• Bosnia and Herzegovina, October 7
• Brazil, October 7
• Afghanistan, October 20
• Madagascar, November 24
• Democratic Republic of the Congo, December 23

Long Supply Lines Foster Abuses

Regarding abuses related to the $88 billion palm oil industry, Rachel Barre, who is L'Oreal's sustainable sourcing manager, acknowledged her company is far removed from the plantation level. And one palm oil industry observer noted it is impossible to delink one company's supplies from the continued deforestation of the industry as a whole.

     Since, along with plantations, small farmers produce 40% of the world's palm oil, abuses at the source of this raw material are widespread. Polluting smoke from the fires used to clear palm oil plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia spreads far beyond local areas and deforestation robs the world of endangered wildlife.

     In lengthy supply lines, problems associated with land acquisition, working conditions, pay, pollution, and deforestation are found where plantations, logging, mines, and textile factories source the food and goods sold to consumers thousands of miles away. Indonesia represents a good example. President Joko Widodo presides over a country of 13,000 islands. He is winning public support for a construction boom in needed roads, railways, bridges, airports, and power plants that the previous government of Suharto failed to address. Yet, projects are hindered by laws and regulatory agencies associated with each project, skilled labor shortages, land acquisition in heavily populated areas, lack of private investment necessitating growing public debt, and lax worker safety requirements.

     Pressured by distant retailers to cut costs and speed up delivery, the clothing manufacturers in China, India, and Indonesia that work with viscose/rayon fibers become major polluters. On one hand, the silk alternative is heralded as a sustainable option, because it is made from the fast-growing, soft wood of beech, pine, and eucalyptus trees. But the process of turning wood pulp into viscose requires sodium hydroxide, sulfuric acid, and carbon disulphide, a chemical linked to heart disease, birth defects, mental health problems, and cancer. Air and wastewater exposed to these chemicals harm factory workers, local residents, and fish.

     What can be done?

1. Organizations, such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, Palm Oil Innovation Group, Forest Stewardship Council, Proforest, Fair Trade Federation, and Sustainable Apparel Coalition, assemble experts to monitor industry conditions, devise best practices, and develop certification programs. Some organizations create logos consumers can use to identify responsible producers.

2. When governments are approached to grant large scale land concessions, they are in a position to require plantation owners to obtain (without manipulation by offering jobs before the concession is granted) consent from local communities, to assure protection of traditional rights to land that is owned, occupied, or used to produce food needed by the local population, and to agree to penalties for violating stipulated working conditions and environmental protections.
     Olam International's palm oil operation in Gabon offers some insight. The company holds a government lease on land for 15 years. Although those who wanted to farm outside the concession could continue to do so, 95% of the local population took jobs with Olam. The company invests $1.6 million a month in community healthcare and development. Yet it took pressure from environmental groups to cause Olam to announce even a one year moratorium on deforestation.

3. Before they suffer bad publicity, companies at the end of supply chains need to realize consumers are becoming better informed about the dangers associated with certain products and industry practices. The need to end pressure on suppliers who cut corners to meet demands and to designate someone to root out untrustworthy intermediaries suppliers may hire to avoid responsibilities is likely to grow. Touting a palm-oil free product became a contested, competitive selling claim in a Belgian court. The supermarket chain, Delhaize, advertised its Choco spread was better for the planet and health than Ferrero's Nutella, a spread that contains palm oil, Although Ferrero successfully argued against Delhaize's claim, the case showed how some marketers have begun to recognize consumers are growing wiser about everything involved with the food they eat and the products they use.

4. With technical, financial, and other support from governments, private sources, and non-profit organizations, more small scale entrepreneurs need opportunities to enter supply chains.

5. To ensure their survival, critically endangered and endangered wildlife, such as gorillas, chimpanzees, bonobos/pygmy chimpanzees, saolas, and orangutan, often need the protection of "no-go zones" and wildlife corridors in concession territories. Palm oil plantations in Cameroon and the Republic of the Congo, for example, already have destroyed chimpanzee and gorilla habitats. Company and government wardens and scientists need to prevent poaching and to monitor animal health in land concessions.

Of course, abuses can be avoided by shortening or controlling supply lines. The missionary nuns who  grow and sell tomatoes to their local communities in Africa short circuit the supply chain (See the  earlier post, "Celebrate Uplifting Efforts to Promote Self Reliance in Africa."). The nonprofit organization, serrv (serrv.org), finds artisans and farmers in areas of great poverty in countries such as Ghana and South Africa, helps them with marketing suggestions to make their goods more attractive in developed countries, and sells these products through catalogs and the retail stores they own.  

New Year's Resolution for Dictators

President-elect, Adama Barrow, who ended the 22-year reign of Yahya Jammeh in The Gambia, said colonists handed over executive power peacefully, so we should be able to show our children (an even) better example.

Yahya Jammeh and Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had an opportunity to follow the model of Goodluck Jonathan in Nigeria, but instead they have clung to power like Mobuto Sese Seko and Robert Mugabe.

Ahead of Iran's scheduled May 19, 2017, election, Supreme Leader Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, who heads what has been called a "clerical dictatorship," began helping the radical opposition led by Ebrahim Raisi, by criticizing the lack of economic improvement current President Hassan Rouhani promised the country when the nuclear deal was ratified. Nonetheless Rouhani won in a landslide. The public continues to resent Iran's jailing of opposition leaders, banning of newspapers, and cancellation of concerts. Business leaders come to Iran looking for opportunities but leave when they consider the political climate.

     In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a "Muslim democrat," when he gained power in 2001, but as the winner of a constitutional referendum in 2017, he claimed authoritarian powers unknown in the years after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded a secular republic.

Conditions are similar in the Congo, where President Kabila's Republican Guards arrested opposition leader, Frank Diongo, and the popular opposition leader, Moise Katumbi, who owns a successful soccer club. Etienne Tshisekedi, opposition leader of the Congo's Union for Democracy and Social Progress party died at 83 in February, 2017. Despite being known as a country rich in minerals, poverty, inflation, a lack of jobs, corruption, and crime plague the economy. Social media is cut off. Although the Constitution bans presidents from seeking a third term, Kabila's second 5-year term as president ended December 19, 2016, without plans for a new election until possibly 2018.

In The Gambia, President Yahya Jammeh, a Muslim who came to power as an army lieutenant in 1994, at first accepted defeat in the country's December 5, 2016, election. He then decided to contest the results before his term expired January 19, 2017. When a coalition of West African countries threatened to use military force to oust him, Jammeh left Gambia on January 21, 2017.

Adama Barrow, the victor in The Gambia's December election delivered a Christmas message calling for "peace and tranquility." In contrast to Jammeh's condemnation of homosexuality and gay rights, Barrow promised to "protect the right of each Gambian to hold and practice the religion or creed of one's choice without any hindrance or discrimination." From the beginning of his presidency in 2011, Jammeh was criticized for his repression and intimidation of the opposition. Media criticism was met with death threats to and arrests of journalists. The editor of a Gambian newspaper, The Point, was murdered in 2004.

Under Barrow, a truth and reconciliation commission hopes to recover millions of dollars Jammeh is accused of stealing from The Gambia, recipient of $3 million a year in US aid. Barrow also plans to establish a team of experts to design a blueprint for The Gambia's poverty eradication and economic development. Two winners of a Student Inspiration Award at the University of Pennsylvania used their $25,000 prize money to travel to The Gambia to do research and conduct a feasibility study for a goat dairy farm that would improve community nutrition and generate revenue for a local hospital now under construction..

Peaceful transfers of power, what a great New Years Resolution

 for world leaders and the people they lead.

Diamond Flaws

President Obama will visit one kind of diamond, when he takes in a baseball game in Cuba this week.* And June brides have a many-faceted diamond on their ring fingers. For the independent miners paying the violent armed groups who control access to the rivers in the Central African Republic (CAR), the diamonds they find represent a treacherous way to scrape out a living.

     These miners are far removed from those who wear the diamonds and gold found in the CAR, Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Angola, and Mexico and the precious stones from Afghanistan and Myanmar (Burma) and from those who rely on the mobile phones, cars, computers, and other products that contain tungsten from Colombia and tantalum, tungsten, and cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Before these raw materials become part of finished products, they change hands often in secretive and poorly regulated supply chains that span the globe.

     The UN, OECD, US, and EU all are taking measures to pressure companies to ask their mineral suppliers more questions and to notice warning signs. Berne Declaration, a Swiss non-governmental organization (NGO), knew Togo produced little or no gold, yet Swiss companies thought they were buying gold that originated there. Instead, their gold was coming from Burkina Faso. True to its advertising, De Beers is assuring consumers "a diamond is forever" by launching a pilot program to buy diamond jewelry and loose diamonds for resale, thereby reducing the need to buy new diamonds from unknown sources.

     Not only is there growing concern about the human rights abuses associated with the dangers independent miners face, but conflict in the world's poorest countries relies in part on financing from selling licenses to miners, collecting tolls on transportation routes to the mines, taxes, and mineral sales. In Zimbabwe, even the national security forces and secret police supplement their government budgets and escape government oversight by engaging in the mineral trade.

     There are money and jobs enough in the mineral trade for both miners and manufacturers to benefit by behaving responsibly.

*See the earlier post, "Good News from Cuba," for background on President Obama's trip to Cuba.

Falling Commodity Prices Spur Diversification in Emerging Markets

Commodity exporting countries that have depended on the Chinese market have been hard hit by the slide in China's economy. Zambia, for example, relies on copper exports to China, which consumes 40% of the mineral's global output, for 70% of its foreign exchange earnings and 25 to 30% of its government revenue. Like Nigeria, which has depended on petroleum exports that are declining in value, Zambia sees a new need for economic diversification.

Check out countries heavily dependent on commodity exports:

• Bauxite: Indonesia, Jamaica, Brazil
• Chromite: South Africa, Zimbabwe, Albania
• Coal: Indonesia
• Cobalt: Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Copper: Chile, Kazakhstan, Zambia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru
• Iron Ore: Brazil
• Lithium: Argentina, Chile, Bolivia
• Manganese: South Africa, Gabon, Brazil, Ghana
• Molybenum: Romania, Chile
• Nickel: (Indonesia banned exports to China), New Caledonia, Madagascar
• Petroleum: Saudi Arabia, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Nigeria
• Platinum: South Africa
• Tin: Indonesia, Myanmar
• Tungsten: Myanmar, Bolivia
• Uranium: South Africa, Namibia, Niger, Kazakhstan
• Vanadium: South Africa
• Zinc: Peru, like Australia, has cut production and jobs