Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts

Saturday, December 12, 2020

Apply Warp-Speed Vaccine Process to Life

NASA put men on the moon in 1969 by: 1) putting the steps needed to accomplish this feat in order and 2) by assigning a number of teams to work on each step. When one team figured out how to accomplish step one, it could assume one of the teams working on step two was ready to move forward by applying its solution. Simplifying the task of developing a vaccine, there would be three steps: 1) develop a test vaccine, 2) prepare a pool of control and test subjects for the vaccine and 3) distribute the vaccine to the public. You can see how separate teams could be charged with the tasks of each step and, as soon as step one was complleted, another team was prepared to implement step two. As individuals, although we can't count on teams ready to work on various aspects of our lives, we can improve the way we live our lives by idehtifying the steps involved along the way. Children and adults can list the steps needed to get out of the house to school or work. For example, activities might include: get out of bed when alarm sounds, take a shower, exercise, get dressed, make bed, make breakfast, eat breakfast, make lunch, check email, read or listen to weather report and news, walk to bus or car. Once a list of activities is set, next, put them in order, paying secial attention to what can be done simultaneously. You might even discover activities that can be done the night before. Identifying steps that can be accomplished simultaneously is a way to be ready to accomplish step two as soon as step one is completed, even if there is no separate team ready to help you take on step two. Simply hanging clothes in the bathroom before taking a shower enables getting dressed as soon as exiting a shower, just as turning on a coffeemaker before showering speeds up the breakfast process. When students say they want to be president or a doctor, it is important to help them identify the steps needed to accomplish their objective. Helping students understand how a degree and experience working at a fast food restaurant or grocery store can pay off with good and legal professional positions in the future rather than dropping out of school to make short-term, fast money selling drugs and possibly landing in prison with no future. When a woman wants to have a career and raise a family, her planning also requires detailed plotting how to care for young children and how to maintain professional credentials at the same time. For example, she might find childcare/babysitters, enroll in graduate school, find a teaching position, subscribe to professional journals, write for a local publication, start a business. Because life is full of the unexpected does not mean forecasting is totally impossible. A general plan for any age, from birth to 100, always can leave room for delays and options, but identifying the steps needed to obtain an objective is the first step to getting there.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Get Real About Forecasting 2018's Happenings

At the start of 2018, there has been no shortage of predictions about what will happen this year. TIME magazine devoted its entire January 15 issue, guest edited by Bill Gates, to a future of positive developments.

I have seen claims that the best places to find a job are in Arizona: Chandler and Scottsdale. Brain power will be enhanced by supplements or meditation. Advertisers will be more interested in how much time we view their commercials, rather than in how many commercials we see. Companies will mine data to personalize the messages they send us. Besides those designing technological developments, more people will be involved in considering the consequences of these developments, such as automated warfare and gene editing.

All of these forecasts remind me of the professor who said the only way to make accurate predictions is to forecast often. His prediction is more accurate than ever in our fast changing world, where today's jobs can be gone tomorrow and where so-called stable governments can disappear in the next election or coup.

No doubt, a variety of resources provide frequent updates. I'm just giving an example of one: TrendWatching.com offers its Premium Service subscribers a 100-page plus "2018 Trend Report,"  but it also provides a free daily look at innovations from around the world, innovations that often are worth imitating immediately. Businesses are reminded, for example, that they have become Glass Boxes. Consumers and potential employees have multiple ways to find out about their culture, people, processes, and product ingredients, not just their stock's performances. Evolution is not finished.