Who Was Responsible for Pearl Harbor?

Because the FBI failed to share a German questionnaire with U.S. military leaders, Britain inadvertabtly provided a blueprint for Japan's December 7, 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. During World War II, Japan joined the Axis by signing a Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy on September 27, 1940. Less than two months later, outdated British airplanes took off from naval carriers and launched a successful night time bombing raid on Italy's well-fortified Mediterranean naval base at Taranto. According to Larry Loftis' account in his book, Into the Lion's Mouth, Japan repeatedly asked Germany to provide details of Britain's surprise Taranto attack. Berlin had different priorities: aerial bombing Britain into submission while pressure from Senator Arthur Vandenberg's isolationists kept the United States out of the war. Nonetheless, Japan's persistence paid off. In the German questionnaire a spy carried to the United States, Taranto morphed into Pearl Harbor. The airfields, airplane hangars, wharfs, submarine stations, ammunition dumps and oil supply depots Britain destroyed in Italy became the targets Tokyo wanted to identify in Hawaii. Posing as a wealthy playboy, Kusko Popov, said to be one of Ian Fleming's inspirations for the James Bond character, served as a double agent spying for both Germany and Britain. London knew what he was doing and helped furnish Germany with useless and false information. Hitler was not in on the charade. When Germany sent Popov to the U.S. to replace its inept Hawaiian spy, Loftis recounts how he came to New York in August, 1941, carrying the Japanese-inspired, German questionnaire requesting him to collect detailed information about Pearl Harbor. Along with an English translation of the questionnaire were telegrams ontaining photographically-reduced information embedded in microdots the size of periods. A period containing the German version of the Pearl Harbor questionnaire could be read under a microscope. Popov turned over the German questionnaire, English translation and telegrams with microdots to FBI representatives on August 19, 1941. London mistakenly believed the FBI would welcome counterespionage assistance from a trusted British spy like Popov and that helping William "Wild Bill" Donovan set up a new Office of Strategic Services (OSS), the forerunner of the Central Intelligence Agency, would reinforce the Anglo-American bond and help encourage President Franklin D. Roosevelt to provide the military assisatnce Britain urgently needed. At the FBI, although J. Edgar Hoover received an English translation of the Pearl Harbor questionnaire by August 19, 1941, on September 3, 1941, he only shared information about the microdots with the President's military secretary. Furthermore, he gave the impression Germany's new system for transmitting information by microdots was discovered during an FBI investigation. Although the FBI had pledged to counter Axis espionage by cooperating with miltiary intelligence, Hoover was not about to allow the new OSS to threaten his agency's investigative authority and budget. Loftis concludes, none of the eight, pre-1948 investigations of intelligence failutes prior to December 7, 1941, mentioned the FBI had received, ignored and failed to share the German questionnaire Dusko Popov delivered to the United States nearly four months before Japan's surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.

2021's Presidential Hot Topics

At tonight's presidential debate between US President Trump and former Vice President, Joe Biden, the candidates have their last chance to detail how they would meet the challenges the country will face in 2021 and beyond. What are those challenges? The Foreign Policy Association has released the following list of the global issues their groups will be discussing when they meet remotely next year. It would be interesting to see if you can check off any of these issues discussed at tonight's presidential debate. 1. The role of international organizations in a global pandemic. 2. Global supply chains and national security. 3. China and Africa. 4. Korean peninsula. 5. Persian Gulf security. 6. Brexit and the European Union. 7. The fight over the melting Arctic. 8. The end of globalization. The US presidential candidates touched on all of these topics, except the supply chain, which is complicated by moral as well as economic and political considerations: and Brexit and the EU, which is not of much interest to US voters. COVID-19 and China were discussed, but not in relation to international organizations or Africa. North Korea, with an economy crippled by sanctions and crop damage from unusually punishing typhoon rain, needs help, maybe from China, but possibly from selling weaponry to would-be nuclear states using hard-to trace cryptocurrency. The future of the oil industry discussion involved both the Persian Gulf and the effect of climate change melting in the Arctic. The future of globalization involves jobs, always a subject of US presidential debates. For information about how to engage in the Foreign Policy Association's discussion groups, go to fpa.org.

New Beginning for Zambia and Zimbabwe Falters

In the unfortunate country, where a protected lion named Cecil met his fate at the hands of a trophy hunter, voters braved intimidation to elect members of parliament and a new president on July 30, 2018. But violence began tearing up the country days after the election. Not only losing candidates and their supporters protested the less than free and fair election, but winners in the Zanu-PF party and the military also split into competing factions.

     A rise in fuel prices on January 12, 2019 again set off protests, sent soldiers into the streets to kill 8, and blocked internet access until January 16. At the same time, President Mnangagwa departed for Moscow, where he agreed to give the Russian company, Alrosa, access to Zimbabwe's diamond mines.

     After World War II, Great Britain grouped Zimbabwe (then Rhodesia), Zambia (then Northern Rhodesia), and Malawi (then Nyasaland) into the Central African Federation. London's plan made perfect sense economically, but not politically. Located within Northern Rhodesia, valuable exports from the Copper Belt, shared with the Congo's Katanga Province, already traveled south by rail through Rhodesia to ports in South Africa. Rhodesia, named for Cecil Rhodes, whose guns defeated Chief Lobengula of the Ndebele people who inspired the costumes for Black Panther, had a developed agricultural economy with farms capable of feeding the region and generating tobacco and chinchilla pelt exports. Yet to be mined rich deposits of gold and platinum still exist. Migrant workers from Nyasaland were used to working Rhodesia's farms. They would consult their lists of good and bad employers before agreeing where to work.

     The two most prosperous countries in the former federation, Zambia and Zimbabwe, struggle to get back on track. Zambia, one of the African countries that received debt forgiveness in 2005-2006 began spending freely just when copper prices tanked and a new regime increased the number of districts where it could reward leaders with graft. By 2018, Zambia defaulted on a Chinese loan repayment, and immediately Beijing was ready to begin talks to takeover ZESCO, Zambia's electric company, even though President Edgar Lungu claimed the Cabinet would have to approve such a measure. China already owns Zambia's national broadcaster, ZNBC.

     Black majorities in Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland broke away from white-ruled Rhodesia. Ian Smith, like South Africa's white leaders, clung to power, and, in 1965, he unilaterally declared Rhodesia's independence from Britain. Later, Zimbabwe also would leave the British Commonwealth.To wrest control from Smith, blacks, led by Robert Mugabe's Zanu party, launched a successful civil war in 1972. Mugabe would exercise dictatorial power in Zimbabwe from 1980 until a military coup led by his vice president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, ousted him in 2017.

     Mugabe failed to follow the advice of Nelson Mandela, South Africa's first black president after apartheid. (See Mandela's advice in the earlier post, "How to React When You've Been Wronged."). Doing unto Zimbabwe's white farmers what they had done to blacks, Mugabe's government seized the farms of white owners in 2000. The economic prosperity envisioned by Britain's plan for the Central African Federation disappeared, when whites quickly emigrated. Following the 2017 coup, Mnangagwa left Zimbabwe for a charm offensive designed to lure back white farmers who could feed the estimated 1.1 million to 2.5 million  people starving in his country.

     To avoid a runoff, a president in Zimbabwe needed to win over 50% of the vote. After a delay, 16 different polling stations reported exactly the same number of votes, and Mr. Mnangagwa won a slim 50.8% majority. His Zanu-PF's party candidates also won 145 of the 210 seats in the National Assembly. Rather than support a Zanu-PF leader who overthrew him, Robert Mugabe, who would die at age 95 on September 5, 2019, backed Nelson Chamisa from the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party, who received 44.3% of the vote, while the remaining votes were split among 21 presidential candidates. Six died, when the military quelled rioting in the capital, Harare, following the announcement of National Assembly votes. MDC voters, who are concentrated in Zimbabwe's cities, called the election unfair and a fraud. When the Constitutional Court rejected MDC's election challenge, members fled the country to escape violence.

     Most Zimbabweans live in rural areas where they depend on foreign food donations. By distributing food at rallies, the Zanu-PF military and traditional chiefs intimidate villagers to vote "the right way." Before the 2018 election, Catholic Church leaders attempted to counter fear, apathy, and violence used in past elections by recognizing the need to protect voters and by stressing a vote for the common good was a human right. Sister Mercy Shumbamhini took it upon herself to go to the streets to ask citizens what the common good meant to them. They answered: having enough to eat, health services, a job, a clean environment, dignity, good roads, and security. In other words, they wanted what citizens everywhere want.

     Zimbabwe entered a new election cycle starved for food, tourist and export dollars, and business investment to cover unpaid debts to the World Bank and African Development Bank. Initially, Mugabe's incompetent party loyalists, used to collecting bribes in their civil service positions, retained their jobs. But in an effort to demonstrate his determination to stabilize Zimbabwe's faltering economy and gain much needed IMF, British, and Chinese loans, President Mnangagwa replaced cronies with technocrats, including Ncube, his new finance minister.

      Funding still remains in doubt, since post-election violence caused lenders to back away from support for the new government. Inflation has soared. Everyone wants payment in US dollars instead of unbacked, government-printed zollars subject to devaluation. Goods, such as generators and building materials, and staples like sugar, maize, and gasoline, are in short supply as customers purchase everything they can before their money is worth even less.

      A 5G pilot project in rural Zimbabwe stands as a vestige of a once hopeful new beginning. Offering new hope, however, is the Friendship Bench organization founded by Zimbabwe psychiatrist, Dr. Dixon Chibanda. According to an article in TIME magazine (February 18-25, 2019), Dr. Chibanda's organization grew out of his advice to those with mental problems: Visit grandmothers. Friendship Bench trains grandmothers, who have time and a natural tendency to listen and guide, rather than tell people what to do, to use role playing and other behavior therapies. The medical journal, JAMA, published the positive benefits of the Friendship Bench approach.

     

Peaceful Matchmakers

Can the marriage of Meghan Markle from the United States and Prince Harry of Britain revive  matchmaking for peace? Perhaps their romance was inspired by the marriage between King Seretse Khama, Botswana's first president, and his British wife, Ruth Williams, the love story told in the film, "A United Kingdom." It is said, on Meghan's and Harry's trip to Botswana, they got to know each other, and rumors speculate the country is their honeymoon destination.

     In earlier centuries, monarchs adeptly used strategic marriages to achieve peace. In the 12th century, Henry II of England picked up French Aquitaine by marrying Eleanor, not by going to war. And Sicily's heiress, Constance, joined the Hohenstaufen dynasty's holdings by marrying a German Henry.

     By the 15th century, Henry VII, the first Tudor King of England, arranged his son Arthur's marriage to Catherine, the daughter of Spanish monarchs, Ferdinand and Isabella. His daughter Margaret was married to King James IV of Scotland, which led to a joint crown for Britain and Scotland in the 17th century.

     By 2020, China expects to have more well-educated women than better-educated men willing to marry them. Could these demographics offer an opportunity for new peaceful alliances?
   

     

Live A Large Life

While residents of the Southern Hemisphere are coming inside for the winter and those in the Northern one are about to go outdoors, both groups are entering periods conducive to thinking about the future. Whether reading by the fire or surrounded by the wonders of nature, students can find seasonal inspiration for life choices that plunge them into the whole wide world.

     For a little help in seeing beyond the here and now, Luke Jennings, a British journalist and avid fisherman, provides his brief book, Blood Knots. Beginning with his title that combines references both to family ties and a way to prepare fishing tackle, Jennings shows young people how to push beyond the ordinary to reach the personal joy of achieving expertise in any field.

     Jennings' own inspiration came from a father who bore scars from pulling fellow soldiers from a burning tank in World War II, and the free-spirited, falcon-owning Robert Nairac, who valued the precision of dry-fly casting that demanded the frustrating "hard right way." Even before meeting Nairac, however, Jennings wrote there was no one in his family who ever fished, "So I learnt from library books by Bernard Venables, Richard Walker, Peter Stone, and Fred Taylor.

     What can be learned from books is not limited to fishing. Even in summer, there are rainy days, when a trip to the library can stimulate an interest that leads to adventures in foreign countries the way fishing took Jennings to Guyana, Australia, Hong Kong, and South Africa.

     Books enable young people who lack financial means to experience the same new ideas and cultures others derive through travel. In Blood Knots, I learned, for example, fishing hooks come in different sizes, a #18 is smaller than a #12. Dry-fly casting for trout begins with making a fly using a delicate bit of silk and feather and requires, like kite flying, an open space where swinging a fishing line overhead and forward will not tangle it in an overhanging branch. No wonder, trout anglers don hip boots and wade into rivers.

     If students are lucky, reading will enhance their means of expression and chances of winning Scrabble by sending them to a giant dictionary to expand their vocabulary with new words, such as numinous, pellucid, ilex, ferrules, elegiac, jejune, and jinking, some of the words Jennings used in Blood Knots. Young people also will begin to find themselves observing and describing their experiences the way Jennings did in the following sentence: "Pigeons flew over us, cresting the roadside trees with a single wing-snap and gliding to their roosts."

     Once students recognize time as a fusion of past, present, and future, the way Jennings came to view it, a lifetime holds a world of opportunity.



   

Unemployment Breeds Poor Choices

Without a job, people realize how much their lives lack, not only money, but also structure and a community of friends and associates. From this perspective, preparing students to be entrepreneurs or to move into the careers of the future becomes a priority when traditional jobs are declining and the global population of young job seekers is increasing.

     Patrick Cook-Deegan, co-director and designer of Project Wayfinder (projectwayfinder.com), has been thinking about how to help high school students develop a sense of purpose that will motivate them to prepare for the future. Being told what to do and taking tests for four years fail to connect students to their work in the future. Asking students to consider what the world needs and what their interests and strengths are can lead to the conclusion that life requires a broad outline that accommodates twists and turns rather than a narrow path. There is a need to connect students with mentors from local industries so that they begin to see how their natural instincts to listen to music, play video games, build with LEGOs, study fashion magazines, or read detective stories apply to solutions for real world problems. There also is the need to ask students to think about how to resist being pressured into a career they know they will quit.

     In developed and less developed countries, resilient people can avoid becoming a target for opportunists, because they know what their goals are (they keep their eyes on the prize) even when they are young, old, fat, black, uneducated, poor, disabled, working at a fast food counter, or tending bar.

     During the 2008 crisis in the United States, families could not afford the mortgages on their homes and manufacturing jobs continued to disappear. The Governor of Wisconsin promised to return 250,000 jobs to the State. With his promise still unfulfilled in 2017, the Chinese firm, Foxconn, offered to bring 13,000 jobs to Wisconsin. In exchange, the State agreed to provide financial incentives totaling $3 billion worth of taxpayer revenue and to exempt the company from environmental laws and the need to gain approval to build or relocate power transmission lines.

     The story in Ghana is similar. Traditionally, non-citizens were prohibited from the practice, known as "galamsey," that allows small scale gold mining by licensed local residents using hand tools on their own land. With half the 15-24 year-old population unemployed, Ghana's farmers willing allowed Chinese miners to work their land with excavators and heavy duty dredging machines, to reduce export revenue by smuggling gold out of the country, to pollute rivers, and to encroach upon land farmed for cocoa. As the number of foreign gold miners increased so did trafficking in the cocaine and other narcotics miners use to help them work long hours in mud-soaked, dangerous conditions.

     In the 19th century, China itself was a victim of drug trafficking, when its society fell prey to an opium addition from British imports its inefficient. militarily weak government could not stop.

     Seeing how unemployment creates a climate for poor choices by individuals, States, and countries reinforces the need to prepare young people for the careers, global careers, that will employ them in the future.

(Additional information about gold mining in Ghana is covered in the earlier post, "Africans Learn to Play the Game".
 

Blind Trust in AI Is a Mistake

For better or worse, combining algorithms with images collected by drones, satellites, and video feeds from other monitors enhances aerial intelligence in a variety of fields.

     Overhead movie and TV shots already provide a different perspective, just as viewing the Earth or a rocket launch from a space craft or satellite does. These new perspectives offer advantages besides entertainment value and a chance to study the dwindling ice cap at the North Pole.

     Seen from above, data about landscapes has various applications. The famous Texas Gulf Sulphur Company case involving insider trading began with aerial geophysical surveys in eastern Canada. When pilots in planes scanning the ground saw the needles in their instruments going wild, they could pinpoint the possible location of electrically conductive sulphide deposits containing zinc and copper along with sulphur.

     When Argentina invaded Britain's Falkland Islands in April, 1982, it's been reported the only map the defenders possessed showed perfect picnic spots. Planes took to the air to locate the landing spot that enabled British troops to declare victory at Port Stanley in June, 1982.

     Nowadays, the aim is to write algorithms that look for certain activities among millions of images. A robber can program an algorithm to tell a drone's  camera to identify where delivery trucks leave packages. An algorithm can call attention to a large group of people and cars arriving at a North Korean missile testing site. Then, an analyst can figure out why, because, to date, artificial intelligence (AI) does not explain how and why it reaches a conclusion.

     Since artificial intelligence's algorithms operate in their own "black boxes," humans are unable to evaluate the process used to arrive at conclusions. Humans cannot replicate AI processes independently. And if an algorithm makes a mistake, AI provides no clues to the reasoning that went astray.

     In other words, robots without supervision can take actions based on conclusions dictated by faulty algorithms. An early attempt to treat patients based on a "machine model" provides a good example. Doctors treating pneumonia patients who also have asthma admit them to the hospital immediately, but the machine readout said to send them home. The "machine" saw pneumonia/asthma patients in the hospital recovered quickly and decided they had no reason to be admitted in the first place. The "machine" did not have the information that their rapid recovery occurred, because they were admitted to the hospital's intensive care unit.

     Google's top artificial intelligence expert, John Giannandrea, speaking at a conference on the relationship between humans and AI, emphasized the effect of bias in algorithms. Not only does it affect the news and ads social media allows us to see, but he also echoed the idea that AI bias can determine the kind of medical treatment a person receives and, based on AI's predictions about the likelihood of a convict committing future offenses, it can affect a judge's decision regarding parole.

     Joy Buolamwini's Algorithmic Justice League found facial-analysis software was prone to making mistakes recognizing the female gender, especially of darker-skinned women. AI is developed by and often tested primarily on light-skinned men, but recognition technology, for example, is promoted for hiring, policing, and military applications involving diverse populations. Since facial recognition screening fails to provide clear identifications of some populations, it also has the potential to be used to identify non-white suspects and to discriminate against hiring non-white employees.

     When humans know they are dealing with imperfect information, whether they are playing poker, treating cancer, choosing a stock, catching a criminal, or waging war, how can they have confidence in authorizing and repeating a "black box" solution that requires blind trust? Who would take moral and legal responsibility for a mistake. The human who authorized action based on AI, wrote the algorithm, or determined the data base the algorithm used to determine its conclusion? And then there is the question of the moral and legal responsibility for a robot that malfunctions while it is carrying out  the "right" conclusion.

     Research is trying to determine what elements are necessary to help AI reach the best conclusions. Statistics can't always be trusted. Numbers that show terrorists are Muslims or repeat criminals are African Americans do nothing to suggest how an individual Muslim or African American should be screened or treated.  AI research is further complicated by findings that also suggest the mind/intellect and will that control moral values and actions are separate from the physical brain that controls other human activities and diseases such as epilepsy and Parkinson's.

     Automated solutions require new safeguards: to defend against hacking that alters information, to eliminate bias,  to verify accuracy by checking multiple sources, and to determine accountability and responsibility for actions.

Muslim Perspective: Part 2 of a 3-Part Series

In a continuing effort to learn more about the Muslim perspective, the second part of a 3-part series follows:

After defeating Napoleon, England was not willing to stand by while massacres and atrocities by Turkish oppressors in the Ottoman Empire led to revolts that gave outside powers reason to intervene. France's Emperor Napoleon III and the Russian Tsar both vied to protect Christians living under Turkish rule. Tsar Nicholas I, who called the Ottoman Empire's Sultan the "sick man of the East," was intent on liberating fellow Slavs in Bulgaria and other Balkan areas that the Turks controlled. The Austro-Hungarian Empire, which also saw an opportunity to expand into the Balkans, annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1908. Britain had no interest in the Balkans, but London was determined to prevent Russia from interfering with its profitable spice trade in India and, eventually, its access to Middle Eastern oil. Knowing that revolutions in 1848 had weakened both Austria's and Hungary's ability to prevent Russian expansion toward Constantinople and the Dardanelle Straits, Britain was willing to prop up Turkey and to join France in what became known as the 1856 Crimean War.

     Although the Ottoman Empire survived the Crimean War, a little over 20 years later, Russia forced the Sultan to recognize the independence of his Balkan possessions in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro. The Ottoman Empire's North African territories were victims of the European scramble for colonies in the late 19th century. France claimed Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco and, by 1869, opened Egypt's Suez Canal.

     Britain, which viewed France as its major colonial rival in Africa, saw the canal as a vital link to India. When Egypt's Turkish ruler needed funds to pay interest on the European loans that had financed canal construction, England eagerly bought shares in the Suez Canal Company. As a result of Britain's financial interests, Egypt became a British Protectorate in 1882. Throughout half of the 20th century, Great Britain continued to maintain a strategic military base in the Suez Canal Zone.

     During World War I, Britain captured Palestine, Iraq, and Iran. It was in 1917 that Lord Balfour, Britain's foreign minister, first raised the possibility of carving an Israeli state, what he called "a small notch," out of Palestine. By making Palestine a British Mandate on September 11, 1932, the League of Nations took the first step to implement Lord Balfour's plan. After World War I, the UK also won League of Nations support in its dispute over the Mosul oil fields in northern Iraq, but England's position in the Middle East deteriorated following World War II. In 1951, Iran's government nationalized the joint Anglo-Iranian oil company on the Persian Gulf at Abadan.