Priority: Eliminate generating electricity from fossil fuels

Not only Disneyland and China design model cities for the future, schoolgirls and young boys also use cereal boxes, LEGOs, and every other sort of building toy to create their own visions of home. What the Visions and Pathways 2040 project at the University of Melbourne did, that was a bit different, was design a greener, cleaner city AND a path to get there from here.

A group of 250 experts from various disciplines collaborated to determine how to reach the year 2040 with cities that cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 80%. They realized they could work with many technologies, such as bladeless wind turbines, solar panels on skyscrapers, and roof and vertical gardens, that already exist. But future suburbs might look very different with less privacy because of clustered townhouses with solar roofs. At the same time, indiscriminate land clearing outside cities and for housing developments would be replaced by forest preservation and regeneration of shade trees used to capture and store carbon dioxide. Urban dwellers would get around through local forests by electric transport, bike trails, and walkways. A CSIRO-developed Australian Stocks and Flows Framework helped model these new cities and the path to them.

The Melbourne project also identified the direct and indirect emissions cities would need to reduce or eliminate. Transport, landfill waste, and buildings caused about 16% of direct carbon dioxide emissions in cities. While the energy used by the heavy industry and agricultural production needed to supply cities also caused indirect emissions, the need for electricity generated almost half of a city's indirect carbon footprint. That meant replacing the fossil fuel burned by power stations with clean technologies was a priority.

Experts saw the transition to ecocities initiated by: 1) city governments that used sanctions to discourage businesses and organizations from carbon-producing activities or 2) citizen movements that foster cooperatives and engage in cultural, political, and economic decisions. By visiting visionsandpathways.com/, you can get the entire Visions and Pathways 2040 report. The challenges it presents are something to think and talk about during the holidays and before making a New Year's Resolution to help your community create a positive climate change.

World Energy Attitude Shifts

According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2016 the global economy grew and carbon dioxide emissions from energy production did not. In fact, the IEA found worldwide carbon dioxide emissions have remained the same for three years.

Progress is uneven but promising. China reduced emissions 1% last year, and India just passed tougher auto emissions standards in March, 2017. Where lower priced alternatives to coal have encouraged countries to switch to natural gas, renewable power sources, and nuclear energy. carbon dioxide output has declined or stabilized. In every country, improved energy efficiency has helped the environment in terms of carbon dioxide reduction and less deforestation. In Malawi, for example, rural and urban consumers have been willing to consider replacing traditional three-stone fires with an investment in clay, metal, or thermoelectric stoves that burn charcoal more efficiently than charcoal and much more efficiently than wood.

The growing concern about climate change has stimulated the search for green energy alternatives. In Norway, the Ocean Sun company is working on solar farms that can float on the ocean and transmit power back to crowded urban areas. Others are looking into technology for floating wind turbines, for generating power from hydrogen, and for using the hydropower of waves, tides, and rivers.

 At its gold mines in Suriname and Burkina Faso, Toronto-based IAMGOLD is using solar energy to reduce the use of diesel oil that generates greenhouse gases. The company sees the hybrid diesel solar photovoltaic engine, built by the Finnish group Wartsila at its gold mine in Burkina Faso, not only as a way to make an environmental contribution to the world but also as a way to reduce energy costs, protect against fuel price volatility, and increase local employment.

Efforts to convert the power of Atlantic Ocean waves into energy in the Orkney Islands north of the Scottish mainland and at the Wave Hub facility in Cornwell off the far southwest coast of England have been less successful. Besides the prohibitive cost, tricky engineering problems and the need to develop new materials capable of withstanding storm stresses and corrosive salt water require solutions. A device needs to handle the variety of pounding storms and normal waves, up and down motions, and wave speeds. Navigation needs to avoid these devices. And biologists view the moving parts of underwater turbines as a threat to sea mammals, fish, and diving birds. Yet, the UK's European Marine Energy Centre in the Orkneys attracts tests by Wave-tricity's Ocean Wave Rover and Finland's Wello Oy Penguin. Australia's Carnegie company has been financing CETO's Wave Energy Technology which has placed giant buoys off the coast of Cornwell in an attempt to produce emission-free energy and desalinated freshwater.  

Space-Searching International Team Sees Results

Using NASA's Kepler Space Telescope, astronomers have found 150,000 stars with 4,706 planets casting a shadow, when they orbit past. The February 23, 2017, issue of Nature reported astronomer Michael Gillon at a Belgium university headed a team that used telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, South Africa, Morocco, Spain, and England to find the Trappist-1 solar system with a planet, Trappist-1e, that maintains a habitable temperature above freezing and below boiling as it orbits around its sun-like star.

     Light from stars is scattered and absorbed differently, if orbiting planets have an atmosphere with a chemical composition. Atmospheric gases, such as methane, oxygen, or carbon dioxide, signal the possibility of water and life. The Hubble Space Telescope has been able to tell what atmospheric gases from two of the Trappist-1 planets don't have, but the spectroscopes the James Webb Space Telescope will carry when it launches, possibly in October, 2018, will be capable of more atmospheric analysis.

Small-scale Successes

Small hydroelectric plants and oil from croton nuts supply villages in India with electricity and Kenyans with biofuel. These solutions are too small to attract major foreign investments. In marketing management terms, they would be considered "dogs" with a very little share of overall electricity and fuel markets and limited growth potential.

     Yet I always have respected "dogs." They are like every small scale business, such as a bed and breakfast, barber shop, or organic farm, that provides services/goods and generates enough income to support one or more families.

     Along India's rivers in the Himalayas, Vaishnavi Consultants and other private companies subsidized by the government are building hydroelectric plants that can use small amounts of water to light 100 homes 24 hours a day in remote villages. This clean power adds no pollution in India, the world's third largest sources of carbon dioxide emissions. And the plants provide employment for the day workers who build them and about 25 local people who run them. The government commits to buying the energy for the villages, and, by law, local councils receive a small percentage from the plants' profits.

     Despite the advantages of India's small hydroelectric plants, these projects are not problem free in a country suffering from drought and clean water shortages. Even though the government's bureaucratic process to obtain the necessary permits to built a hydroelectric plant can take two to five years, a lack of oversight and exemption from the government's environmental impact act require remedies. Too many plant sites along the same stream can compromise plant performance and unregulated deforestation by developers almost always violates environmental rules.

     Like India's small hydroelectric plants, biofuel from Kenya's croton trees produces energy with fewer carbon emissions than coal, oil, or gas. Further, without deforestation or replacing agricultural land needed to grow food crops, the Nanyuki-based Eco Fuels company presses oil from the nuts of the croton trees that grow wild in the Mount Kenya and Rift Valley regions. Farmers do not need to water or fertilize the trees that they can harvest for six months out of the year. Eco Fuels pays 5,000 farmers for the nuts on delivery, unlike coffee farmers who have to wait months for payment.

    The croton oil used in generators, water pumps, and tractor engines is cheaper than diesel oil and generates 78% less carbon dioxide emissions. The protein-rich seedcake paste left from pressing croton nuts is sold as poultry feed and husks are sold as organic fertilizer.

     Don't discount India's small scale hydroelectric plants or Kenya's croton nuts. For some, these "dogs" are families' best friends.