Beware the New Normal

In the US, a wealthy, powerful and privileged plutocracy has defined a new normal that fails normal people, according to an article by Anand Giridharadas in TIME magazine (December 2-9, 2019), His observations apply equally to the elite hyperwealthy who govern in many countries throughout the world. Those who Giridharadas calls plutes know how to mask their influence by using the following tactics real normal people need to recognize and reject.

They:

• Emphasize job creation, when they expect tax breaks where they locate a new business, contribute to climate change, or disregard environmental and worker safety laws. 
• Benefit from ongoing corruption involved in constructing a sports arena that provides a day of entertainment for fans.
• Offset massive returns from investments of questionable social value, such as production of sugary soda drinks, by making some do-good investments and philanthropic contributions.
• Learn to describe their fear of losing wealth to taxes as harmful to those who benefit from their philanthropy and research to develop new products and drugs.
• Win elections by posing as the ones who are providing the food supplied by humanitarian organizations.
• Prefer paying fines, even major ones, to making actual reforms of harmful and unfair practices.
• Hire public relations' experts to brand harmful and unfair practices with deceptive labels and descriptions that sound like public services.
• Blame poverty on the victims of government policies or people who just don't like to work.

Whatever a person's religion or lack of religion, the Christmas season offers a reminder that it takes a god to be a savior. The world is too complicated for a wealthy individual to govern alone; it takes an administration. Fair elections enable lucky voters to choose between a one-person administration dedicated to maintaining a wealthy elite or an administration with a president, cabinet, congress, and courts devoted to the rule of law and institutions that serve the public interest.

How to Make the Boring Interesting

I was reading a book a friend recommended that I found very boring, when I discovered a trick to help make something interesting. Give it a purpose. When I didn't find the women characters in the book interesting, I started reading to see if the males in their lives were.

While watching the third Democratic presidential debate, I pretended I was watching to find, not only the next leader of the free world, but also the best vice president, attorney general, and Cabinet secretaries.

The Congo Needs A Dec. 23 Miracle

Instead of a miracle, a suspicious fire destroyed voting materials and moved the December 23 election of a new president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to December 30. Provisional results of the delayed election showed the  surprise victory by Felix Tshisekedi, son of a deceased opposition leader popular in Kinshasa. Nonetheless, controversy surrounds his victory over Martin Fayulu, who was seen as a greater threat to former president Joseph Kabila's history of corruption and disregard for the rule of law. An NGO that fielded 40,000 election observers said their results showed former oil executive, Fayulu, had won, just as a pre-election survey also predicted. 

     Russia quickly recognized Tshisekedi as the Congo's new president while Martin Fayulu rejected the final election results as a deal engineered between Tshisekedi and Kabila. Many feared protests and violent repression would  frustrate the hoped for calm transition.

     The former Belgian Congo, nearly three times the size of Nigeria, has almost one million fewer people. On the surface, the 105,000 electronic voting tablets ordered from South Korea for 84,000 polling places created the appearance of a modern election process for the country's 40 million eligible voters. Concern that the tablets could be hacked prevented them from being hooked up for fast transmission of election results. Also, there was concern that the population, especially spread out beyond the Kinshasa capital, had little experience with technology, and unpaved roads and remote areas, only accessible by boats, motorbikes, or helicopters, prevented easy access to voting places.

     Voters also have to contend with 100 rebel groups that terrorize the country. From Beni south to Butembo on the eastern border with Uganda, for example, the machete wielding Allied Democratic Forces and Mai Mai militia, who prevent health workers from vaccinating people threatened by the spreading Ebola virus, are not likely to facilitate passage for voters. At the polls, voting also may be prevented by the lack of electricity and charged batteries needed to power voting tablets.

     Nothing about the Congo's history suggests a new president offers King Leopold II's former private colony relief from nearly 150 years of suffering that began with harvesting rubber under slavery conditions. Only a year into independence, its first president, Patrice Lumumba, was murdered in 1961. Next, General Joseph Mobutu changed the country's name to Zaire and used the Congo's uranium to become a Cold War player who amassed a private fortune with funds from East and West.

     With the flight of Tutsis escaping genocide by Hutus in neighboring Rwanda, fighting began spilling over into Zaire in 1994. Mobutu's opponent, General Laurent Kabila, seized the opportunity to recruit Tutsis and to lead rebels west toward Kinshasa. Mobutu fled into exile in 1997. Kabila seized control of the country, again named the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ruled as a dictator until a bodyguard assassinated him in 2001.

     Kabila's son, Joseph, took over the troubled country. In 2006, a new constitution limited a president's time in office to two, 5-year terms, and the UN oversaw a presidential election. In a runoff, Joseph Kabila, head of the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), defeated a former Congolese vice president and rebel leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba. Benba was arrested for war crimes committed by his troops during fighting after the election. Kabila failed to step down as president when his term ended in 2016.

     When the December 23, 2018 date finally was set for a new presidential election, Kabila's PPRD selected as its candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister and the party's permanent secretary. Shadary, who has no powerful military or other political base of his own, was viewed as Kabila's puppet. In June, 2018, Bemba's war crimes conviction was overturned. He returned to a hero's welcome in August only to be barred from running for president due to a second charge. Another potential presidential challenger, Moise Katumbi, the wealthy former governor of Katanga's southern cobalt and copper mining province, was sentenced for property fraud and also barred from running for election and from returning to the Congo from Belgium.

     Joseph Kabila is adept at eliminating his opposition. When the Catholic Church, which counts at least 40% of the Congo's population as members, began holding parades in support of December's election, police killed 18 marchers. Gaining popularity for any reason is a danger. After the Congo's Dr. Denis Mukwege won a Nobel peace prize in 2018, he narrowly escaped assassination.

     Observers, both inside and outside the Congo, suspected Kabila was counting on votes split among the weak slate of presidential candidates, the potential for polling machine irregularities, and protests by Bemba, Katumbi, and others to cause violence that would invalidate the election and leave him as president. The people of the Democratic Republic of the Congo deserve a better Christmas present: a president devoted to bringing them lasting peace and prosperity.

   

   

     

   

Looking for a Position as a Top Analyst or a Young Voter?

 In response to a question about how to reach college and other young voters, one strategist suggested getting involved with their interest in music. Getting involved with their interests in gaming and robot competitions could work also.

International scouts for top analysts already visit video games' competitions. Wonder how many were hired playing eSports at the Asian Games in Indonesia. Robot battles also might serve as prime recruiting venues.

     Gamers report having a controller in their hands improves their emotional well-being. Gaming stadiums, like South Korea's League of Legends (LOL) park, Russia's Spodek, and those in Canada and Chongqing, China, are taking advantage of the gaming phenomena that is becoming a $150 billion dollar industry. Knowing gamers dislike crumbs in their controllers, trendwatching.com reports Doritos now offers the snack in Towel Bags that provide a way to wipe off residue from the tasty treat.

     With or without Towel Bags, spectators can watch the action on gaming stations while eating the usual fare sold at sports arenas. The LOL park, developed by Riot Games, will have a cafe open 24 hours a day and a hall of fame selling jerseys and 3D printed miniatures of LOL pros. Mastercard has a three year deal to sponsor League of Legends World Champiionships. And Coutts, bankers to the Queen of England, is courting esports' millionaires. Tyler Blevins, known as "Ninja", published a graphic novel for his millions of gamer fans.

Successful Revolutions Require Organization

Massive rallies and marches fail to result in change, unless they are supported by organizations. It takes political parties to win elections, military forces to stage a coup, pressure from organized religions, and labor unions to change corporations and institutions of learning.

     Individuals with ideas for reform can write books, but organizations need to put these ideas into operational form. When would-be reformers approach Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, for her endorsement, she asks if they can muster a group of at least one thousand. Crowdfunding on social media suggests one way to gain support for causes.

     Where are groups already assembled? On college campuses, war and South Africa's apartheid protesters gained traction. Members of Jewish temples, Muslim mosques, African-American and other Christian churches share common causes.

     In Prague, dissidents hung out at the Art Deco cafe, Kavarna Slavia, to plot the Velvet Revolution that ended communism in Czechoslovakia. The Cafe Gallery and Bassiani night clubs in Tbilisi, Georgia, now attract young people ready to break out of post-Soviet police and interior ministry restraints and to embrace liberalized Western culture. The clubs serve as a gathering space, not only for locals, but also for tourists, rappers, and DJs with European followings. Young Russians received social media news of a club protest that led demonstrators to the steps of Georgia's parliament.

Student Elections: Training for the Real Thing

Since votes in elections cause or hinder action, student elections offer a meaningful training ground for affecting change. Even massive demonstrations, such as the March for Our Lives of U.S. students demanding actions to eliminate gun violence, cannot have as great an impact as an elections where voters choose or defeat candidates, such as those funded by the National Rifle Association (NRA).

     Before student elections, urge student voters to discuss the elements of fair and winning elections.

Candidate selection: Should anyone be allowed to run? Should candidates need to get a certain number of signatures? Could committees select candidates? Should there be a primary election to narrow the choice of candidates? What affects a candidate's popularity? Research shows candidates can use status or likability models. Status comes from a person's visibility, dominance, and influence on a group. These candidates gain attention by bullying and disparaging voters and by exercising power over them with control of the media, a commanding voice, and even their height. Likability is related to treating people with respect, cooperating/compromising, and knowing how to help people feel good about themselves. A likable leader connects with people and involves everyone in creating group norms, harmony, and a solution everyone buys into.

Funding: What costs go into an election? Posters, flyers, giveaway items, ballots, voting booths, ballot boxes, travel expenses, communication, staff, including staff for accurate tabulation of ballots.  Who pays for each? Should there be a spending limit? Can candidates allowed to distribute candy or some other type of "bribe"?

Date of election and event scheduling: One day of voting or more? How soon after new students enter a school should an election be scheduled? Should those about to graduate vote for those who will attend next year? Select dates that do not conflict with other major events. When should elections be announced?

Length of campaign: Should campaigns have beginning and ending dates? or be open-ended?

Platform: What is most important to voters? Should voters be surveyed to identify main issues?
Can candidates get away with wild promises?  lies?

Campaign slogans: What to say? Negative or positive themes. How many words? Include candidate's name? Where to use slogan (posters, bumper stickers, yard signs, T-shirts, commercials)? I still remember this slogan a student used in a high school election campaign, "You will not be forgotten. Cast your vote for Kathy Hotten." Check out student election poster samples at
 postermywall.com/index.php/posters/search?s=student election.

Public events: Will each candidate have a campaign kickoff event? Will all candidates give a speech at an all school assembly? Will candidates visit each classroom? Will students be invited to submit questions a moderator could ask candidates at an assembly? How many events?

Dirty tricks:  What are some examples? How will hecklers by handled? Misplaced/stolen ballot boxes. Do you need security officers?

Voter eligibility: Need to develop voter lists. If those who check voter lists won't know everyone, how will voters identify themselves and be sure to only vote once? Print official ballots in a way they can't be copied (colored paper?)

If students have an opportunity to watch an election campaign in any country, they could write a short paper about their observations and make a prediction of whom they think will win.

Upcoming presidential elections in 2018

• Azerbaijan, April 11
• Montenegro, April 15
• Paraguay, April 22
• Venezuela, May 20
• Colombia, May 27
• Mexico, July 1
• Mali, July 29
• Bosnia and Herzegovina, October 7
• Brazil, October 7
• Afghanistan, October 20
• Madagascar, November 24
• Democratic Republic of the Congo, December 23

Venezuela Shows Need to Beware of Government Actions during Crises

Due in part to conflict erupting during an ongoing economic crisis, the first baseball player from Venezuela to be inducted into Cooperstown's Hall of Fame was absent from the ceremony honoring past greats at this year's All Star Game. Luis Aparicio, the celebrated, base-stealing Major League shortstop who lives in Maracaibo, is just one of the Venezuelans who has been affected by the food and medicine shortages caused by the world's falling oil prices that used to finance the country's economy.

     Street sit-downs by citizens, barricades set on fire by masked young men, and public rosary-praying by members of religious orders have led Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro to:

1. Send Venezuela's National Guard troops to fire tear gas into protesters from highway overpasses,
2. Postpone regional elections, 
3. Support the Supreme Court's attempt to strip the National Assembly of its powers.

     In her new book, No Is Not Enough, Naomi Klein recounts case after case where governments have used crises to blame scapegoats and to impose measures they have been longing to enact. Fear and confusion enable governments to get away with actions that would be unthinkable in normal times. But whether its economic collapse, natural disasters, election fraud, war, or cyber attack, there's no clear choice between the powers a government needs to deal with a problem and those the government has been looking for an opportunity to grab.

     During wars, history shows the United States passed Alien and Sedition Laws to deport or imprison male subjects of enemy countries and to punish those who published anti-government material; suspended habeus corpus which requires persons to be lawfully charged with a crime before they are detained; and sent Japanese citizens to internment camps.

     Just as governments may be ready to cut funding for education and Social Security to fund a military buildup, to muzzle the press, or to increase surveillance during a crisis, the public needs to be ready to come together to support voting rights, to defend the independence of courts, to demand constitutional guarantees, and, most of all, with a fierce determination not to repeat mistakes of the past. Will citizens be up to the task of discerning which powers a government needs for the crisis at hand?

New Year's Resolution for Dictators

President-elect, Adama Barrow, who ended the 22-year reign of Yahya Jammeh in The Gambia, said colonists handed over executive power peacefully, so we should be able to show our children (an even) better example.

Yahya Jammeh and Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had an opportunity to follow the model of Goodluck Jonathan in Nigeria, but instead they have clung to power like Mobuto Sese Seko and Robert Mugabe.

Ahead of Iran's scheduled May 19, 2017, election, Supreme Leader Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, who heads what has been called a "clerical dictatorship," began helping the radical opposition led by Ebrahim Raisi, by criticizing the lack of economic improvement current President Hassan Rouhani promised the country when the nuclear deal was ratified. Nonetheless Rouhani won in a landslide. The public continues to resent Iran's jailing of opposition leaders, banning of newspapers, and cancellation of concerts. Business leaders come to Iran looking for opportunities but leave when they consider the political climate.

     In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a "Muslim democrat," when he gained power in 2001, but as the winner of a constitutional referendum in 2017, he claimed authoritarian powers unknown in the years after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded a secular republic.

Conditions are similar in the Congo, where President Kabila's Republican Guards arrested opposition leader, Frank Diongo, and the popular opposition leader, Moise Katumbi, who owns a successful soccer club. Etienne Tshisekedi, opposition leader of the Congo's Union for Democracy and Social Progress party died at 83 in February, 2017. Despite being known as a country rich in minerals, poverty, inflation, a lack of jobs, corruption, and crime plague the economy. Social media is cut off. Although the Constitution bans presidents from seeking a third term, Kabila's second 5-year term as president ended December 19, 2016, without plans for a new election until possibly 2018.

In The Gambia, President Yahya Jammeh, a Muslim who came to power as an army lieutenant in 1994, at first accepted defeat in the country's December 5, 2016, election. He then decided to contest the results before his term expired January 19, 2017. When a coalition of West African countries threatened to use military force to oust him, Jammeh left Gambia on January 21, 2017.

Adama Barrow, the victor in The Gambia's December election delivered a Christmas message calling for "peace and tranquility." In contrast to Jammeh's condemnation of homosexuality and gay rights, Barrow promised to "protect the right of each Gambian to hold and practice the religion or creed of one's choice without any hindrance or discrimination." From the beginning of his presidency in 2011, Jammeh was criticized for his repression and intimidation of the opposition. Media criticism was met with death threats to and arrests of journalists. The editor of a Gambian newspaper, The Point, was murdered in 2004.

Under Barrow, a truth and reconciliation commission hopes to recover millions of dollars Jammeh is accused of stealing from The Gambia, recipient of $3 million a year in US aid. Barrow also plans to establish a team of experts to design a blueprint for The Gambia's poverty eradication and economic development. Two winners of a Student Inspiration Award at the University of Pennsylvania used their $25,000 prize money to travel to The Gambia to do research and conduct a feasibility study for a goat dairy farm that would improve community nutrition and generate revenue for a local hospital now under construction..

Peaceful transfers of power, what a great New Years Resolution

 for world leaders and the people they lead.