China's One Belt, One Road: Pakistan's Cautionary Tale

Back in 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) section of China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) Initiative was expected to bring economic development and jobs to Pakistan and also provide substantial benefits to China. The new deep water port at Gwadar, Pakistan, on the Arabian Sea would enable China to transport oil from the Middle East up through Pakistan to western China rather than across the Indian Ocean and through the congested Malacca Straight between Indonesia and Malaysia to the South China Sea. By encircling India, the CPEC offered a way to balance or neutralize democratic India's influence in the region, but the CPEC also involved China in India's Kashmir border dispute with Pakistan high in the Himalaya Mountains. Shots fired on the border in Septemebr, 2020, violated an Indo-Chinese agreement. Pakistan found the terms of the CPEC less than transparent and a debt burden Beijing was unwilling to renegotiate. The Chinese support Pakistan expected for its border dispute with India failed to materialize. In fact, in September, 2017, China and India signed an anti-terrorist declaration that criticized Pakistan for shielding terrorist groups. The US even floats the notion that China might be an ally willing to help persuade Pakistan to pressure its Taliban friends to help stabilize neighboring Afghanistan. The bottom line is: Pakistan's deteriorating economy, made worse by the coronavirus, finds 18 million employees out of work. China, which expects repayment for the CPEC, has no need for Pakistan's textile exports. CPEC construction jobs failed to satisfy Pakistan's need for the education, technical training and scientific research necessary for modern employment, such as monitoring and correcting Pakistan's poor air quality. Finally, the CPEC involves atheistic China with a Muslim country, when China is trying to eliminate the Uighur Muslim culture in Kashgar, home of the Id Kah Mosque, and to control up to one million Uighurs in so-called re-education camps. At the same time, Pakistan's Hindu minority, already discriminated against in better economic times, is converting to Islam just to receive assistance from the government and charities.

Expand Family and Business Income Streams

Economic suffering from jobs lost to automation and the COVID-19 pandemic accelerate the need for multiple income streams from family members and businesses. The earlier post, "Rebirth of Self Worth," suggests ways children even can help generate income by adding lemonade and hot dog stands and entertainment to family yard sales. The following examples show how some businesses find new market segments eager to try their products.

     Hard to mow hilly parks overgrown with invasive buckthorn bushes and honeysuckle inspired the formation of the HaakHagen Goat Grazing farm run by a couple of friends in Wisconsin. Their 88 agile goats, rented out to private landowners and government land, also help preserve prairies by nibbling invasive species and shrubs that block the sun needed by shorter native plants. The goats are gentler on the land than heavy mowing machinery, what they leave behind eliminates the need for some fertilizer and adults and children find the goats fun to watch.

     Renting out RVs during the pandemic has become a new business catering to both vacationing families and virtual employees looking for office space while sheltering at home. When pleasure and business travelers return to the skies, they are likely to receive airline-branded Honeywell Safety Packs containing single-use gloves, hand wipes and face masks. Trendwatching.com reports Honeywell offers airline crews reusable packs of safety glasses and face masks with interchangeable filters.

     What is obvious from these three businesses is the way they each seized opportunities to serve multiple market segments. Clothing manufacturers now have an opportunity to produce double-duty items for home and business wear. Educational suppliers can think in terms of the home and school markets. Online retailers might gain multiple incomes from pop-up holiday shops, and more and more similar ideas will create new jobs and economic growth. 

   

Beware the New Normal

In the US, a wealthy, powerful and privileged plutocracy has defined a new normal that fails normal people, according to an article by Anand Giridharadas in TIME magazine (December 2-9, 2019), His observations apply equally to the elite hyperwealthy who govern in many countries throughout the world. Those who Giridharadas calls plutes know how to mask their influence by using the following tactics real normal people need to recognize and reject.

They:

• Emphasize job creation, when they expect tax breaks where they locate a new business, contribute to climate change, or disregard environmental and worker safety laws. 
• Benefit from ongoing corruption involved in constructing a sports arena that provides a day of entertainment for fans.
• Offset massive returns from investments of questionable social value, such as production of sugary soda drinks, by making some do-good investments and philanthropic contributions.
• Learn to describe their fear of losing wealth to taxes as harmful to those who benefit from their philanthropy and research to develop new products and drugs.
• Win elections by posing as the ones who are providing the food supplied by humanitarian organizations.
• Prefer paying fines, even major ones, to making actual reforms of harmful and unfair practices.
• Hire public relations' experts to brand harmful and unfair practices with deceptive labels and descriptions that sound like public services.
• Blame poverty on the victims of government policies or people who just don't like to work.

Whatever a person's religion or lack of religion, the Christmas season offers a reminder that it takes a god to be a savior. The world is too complicated for a wealthy individual to govern alone; it takes an administration. Fair elections enable lucky voters to choose between a one-person administration dedicated to maintaining a wealthy elite or an administration with a president, cabinet, congress, and courts devoted to the rule of law and institutions that serve the public interest.

Unmask Inscrutable Chinese Intentions

China has an uncanny ability to describe what the United States wants to hear while pursuing the future Beijing is determined to create.

     At a 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Obama the Pacific Ocean was "broad enough to accommodate the development of both China and the United States." A year later, China declared it had no intention of militarizing its artificial islands in the South China Sea. Today, China has radar installations, reinforced concrete bunkers, and missiles on three of its artificial islands and claims "indisputable sovereignty" in their adjacent waters.

     In 2017, the Taiwan-based Chinese company, Foxconn, arrived in Wisconsin offering to create 13,000 new jobs in a State, where then Republican Gov. Scott Walker had failed to deliver on a campaign promise to create 250,000. In return for the increase in employment and plant investment that Foxconn agreed to bring to Wisconsin, the State offered the company generous tax credits said to be anywhere from $3 billion to $4.5 billion.

     During the past two years, Foxconni 's Technology Group changed its original plan to manufacture TV liquid crystal display panel screens in Wisconsin. While holding to its contractual obligation to employ 13,000, Foxconn now claims three-quarters of the jobs in Wisconsin's 6G "technology hub" will be in research, development, and design, rather than in blue collar manufacturing jobs.

     In Manhattan, Mayor Bill de Blasio said any attempt to change the terms of the agreement that brought Amazon's second headquarters to the city would nullify the contract. How can Foxconn alter plans for its operation in Wisconsin without any consequences?

     Whether there are 9,750 employees with skills to handle the 6G tasks Foxconn now expects to perform in Wisconsin is doubtful. In 2018, Foxconn did not qualify to receive any tax incentives, because the company only created 178 of the 260 positions it agreed to fulfill in that period. Were these 178 positions filled by Wisconsinites?  Since an audit in December, 2018 found the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation has a policy of awarding tax credits for employees who do not work in Wisconsin, it seems possible Foxconn even could receive tax credits for 6G jobs performed by Foxconn employees in China.

     I do not pretend to know how a 6G (sixth generation) network works, but I doubt Gov. Tony Evers and the GOP legislature that approved the Foxconn contract do either.  I do know 6G networks are designed to facilitate the IoT
(Internet of Things). If home appliances and office electronics with display panels instantly transmit everything they see, an advanced ultra-high frequency 6G network is needed to instantly transmit an enormous amount of data. And memory chips are essential to this technology.

     By locating in the United States, Foxconn can purchase memory chips from U.S. companies, such as Qualcomm, and avoid the export ban that nearly put ZTE out of business in China, when Congress initially prohibited the exports it needed. (See the earlier post, "China's Domestic Economic Belt.")

     Chinese scientists suggest how lovely it would be to use 6G technology to share a holiday dinner with friends and relatives thousands of miles away. Benign 6G applications in driverless cars, aviation, and medicine do seem beneficial. But you only need to imagine paying China for devices that allow Beijing to look into every home and business in the United States to recognize problems and the need for government regulation.

     U.S. officials already indicate they consider the practices and equipment of China's telecom firms a national security threat. Huawei, which builds networks in 170 countries, is charged in the U.S. with flaunting sanctions forbidding exports of memory chips to Iran, stealing intellectual property, and improper banking disclosures. After Canada arrested Huawei's chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, Washington asked for her extradition to the United States. To date, no evidence reveals Huawei's smartphones or networks have been used for spying, but the fear that they, or their 6G successors, could be used for that purpose persists. As long as Huawei offers good service at a lower price than competitors, U.S., European, and other companies will not shy away from buying their products. In China, President Xi is determined to eliminate  dependence on, and influence related to, chips supplied by U.S. companies.

   

Globalization Requires Skepticism

Along with telling children to be kind to others, part of raising kids involves cautioning them to avoid being lured into a van to see or search for a puppy and to avoid being touched in areas covered by their swimsuits. James Bond's dictum to trust no one is a bit too much, but healthy skepticism about ulterior motives is a useful life lesson. If playmates tap them on their left shoulders, while others on the right steal their bags of chips, they get the message.

     Even adults can be duped. Wisconsin's Republican Governor, Scott Walker, and President Trump received splashy news coverage, when they announced the Chinese Foxconn company would bring new jobs to Wisconsin. The State soon learned its taxpayers were expected to contribute $3 billion to the project. The amount grew to a little over $4 billion which required borrowing from the State's transportation budget to build new roads to the plant. Foxconn's environmental plans and ideas about water usage from Lake Michigan required negotiation. The promised 1300 jobs were reduced to an initial 300, and, since the plant site is on the border with Illinois, there was no guarantee that all these jobs would go to employees from Wisconsin.

     The Foxconn deal began looking like an albatross Democrats could hang around Governor Walker's neck. So, the Chinese offered to bring more jobs to Wisconsin to help bail the Governor out from the unfulfilled promise he made to bring 250,000 jobs to Wisconsin during his first campaign in 2010. Foxconn announced additional innovation centers were in the works for Wisconsin in Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Eau Claire. According to Foxconn, these job-creating centers are designed to inspire local companies and entrepreneurs to create new solutions.

     Here's where skepticism comes in. Why would China seem eager to help a Republican Governor in a fly-over State not uppermost in many minds? The innovation centers and investments China already has in Silicon Valley provide some clues. With the U.S. preoccupied with Russian interference, Chinese tech companies associated with Beijing's government have been taking advantage of opportunities to pour venture capital billions into U.S. startups in fields, such as virtual reality, AI, financial software, cyber security, quantum computing, robotics, 3D printing, and biotechnology. Since the U.S. military does not purchase technologies from startups with foreign investors, Chinese investments can not only buy up technological advances from Wisconsin's startups, but they also prevent these innovations from improving U.S. defenses.

     Delayed skepticism about the technological advantages the Chinese government can gain from U.S. startup innovations and increased concern about the national security implications involved caused Congress to pass the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIREMA) to enhance the oversight provided by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
Already, China is thinking about how to get around the crack down by making a move to Canada a condition for a venture capital investment or by hiring a team of employees from an innovative startup, the way the Chinese online giant, Alibaba, does this in China.
     

How to React When You've Been Wronged

Colombia's new President, Ivan Duque, will come to office facing a population that suffered hundreds of thousands killed by rebels who now are allowed to hold public office under the terms of a 2016 peace accord. Instead, many of his wronged constituents want retribution for crimes against their families.

     In The Monarchy of Fear, Martha C. Nussbaum writes about Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and the valid anger he faced as a leader of once-enslaved African-Americas in the United States. She also sees anger growing among those whose standard of living is threatened by automation and outsourcing of jobs, while others thrive from globalization.

     When President Obama was asked to deliver the Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture in South Africa this year, he too reflected on the way globalization and technology can benefit the rich and powerful while facilitating inequality. But he reminded his audience about how Mandela responded: 1) to his over 20 years of captivity under an apartheid structure that defined the artificial domination of whites over blacks by studying the thinking of his enemies, and 2) to his election as President of South Africa by abiding by the constitutional limit of his presidential term and by not favoring any group.

     Obama acknowledged, IT IS HARD to engage with people who look different and hold different views from you. But you have to keep teaching that idea of engaging with different people to ourselves and our children, he said.

     Each of us has to hold hard, as Nelson Mandela did, even while he was in prison, to the firm belief that being a human entitles each of us to a human inheritance. All people are created equal and endowed by their creator with certain inalienable rights, Obama reminded his South African audience. What flows from that firm belief in the equality of rich and poor, woman and man, young and old, and every other human difference is Mandela's conclusion: "It's not justice if now you're on top, so I'm going to do the same thing that those folks were doing to me, and now I'm going to do it to you."

     Nussbaum expresses the same idea. Saying something is wrong and should never happen again is valuable, but deciding to fix it by making the doer suffer is not helpful. Put another way, an African-American, speaking on a panel at a forum, observed it is more productive to go forward with an attitude based on the Civil Rights movement than an attitude derived from slavery.

     Once you concentrate on your own value as a human being and that of all other humans and vow not to repeat past failures, there's hope for a better future.

   

   

   

Master the Gig Economy

Since the future of work is not what it was in the past, no one is likely to work for the same company 45 years and then retire with a pension. One way to guaranty a future income is to identify as many money-making options as possible, not only for your self, but for all family members. You've seen babies and dogs in commercials, right? In Rise and Grind, "Shark Tank" TV star, Daymond John, lists ways he made money as a kid by being the first out of the house to shovel snow for neighbors and by fixing and selling bikes and toys people threw away. Kid also hold their own garage sales in conjunction with lemonade stands these days.

     The "gig economy," as John Hope Bryant defines it in his new book, The Memo, "is a labor market characterized by short-term contracts or freelance work as opposed to permanent jobs." He adds, "Always be on the lookout for opportunities to create your own economy.... Every big business was once a small business."

Bryant gives some useful examples of short-term ways to make money:

• Drive for Uber or Lyft
• Rent your camper, powerboat, condo
• Deliver food
• Service computers, build websites
• Sell craft items on Etsy (I know a woman who went from scrapbooking for the family to using her skills to create the unique greeting cards she sells without a middleman at art fairs, holiday marts, and all summer at farmers' markets.)

I would add:

• Sell Avon, Amway, insurance, or other products at Tupperware-type parties, if you have a wide circle of relatives and friends
• Provide child care and pet care
• Become a personal trainer
• Form a "garage band" or write a stand-up comedy routine you can book at local clubs and parties
• Sell off unused and out-grown collections of dolls, LEGO sets, Civil War re-enactor garb, cookbooks, vinyl records, etc. on eBay or at a well-organized and advertised yard sale. (I know a women who made $700 by hanging clothes by size on racks and carefully pricing each item)
• Write and pitch freelance articles.
• Offer professional services, if you are an attorney, notary, CPA at tax time
• Tutor students in your best subjects

School yourself

Working in any type of job in a restaurant, retail store, warehouse, or phone bank, there are things to learn about hiring, firing, sales, promotion, taxes, cleaning, dealing with busy and slow periods, forms, handling complaints, etc. that you could use if you become an entrepreneur and/or if you'd like to sell services to these businesses. While one of my friends was working at the Department of Agriculture in Washington, DC, she saw companies having their labels rejected for a variety of reasons. She quit and went into business for herself advising food companies how to make the modifications they needed to meet government regulations.

     For any business financing you might need, check out crowdfunding sites, such as Kickstarter, GoFundMe, and Quirky. Also compare the interest and perks of various credit cards. (In his book, Bryant advises how to improve a credit score to get the lowest interest rate.)

     Study where you should move to find the best chance of success. Daymond John writes Vermont, Minnesota, Delaware, New Jersey, and Connecticut offer the best opportunities for working moms, according to WalletHub.

     Increase the skills you can offer by learning from YouTube video instructions and visiting the nonfiction section at the library. Remember how one of the women in the movie, Hidden Figures, used a library book to teach herself how to write a computer language. And I understand, when Harrison Ford was an unemployed actor, he taught himself carpentry from a library book.

     Learn all you can at a franchising show.

Get more out of college 

Don't just go to classes and make friends, unless the latter become your future business partners.

• Get experience being the travel manager for a sport, the band, the debate team. Such experience can lead to a gig as travel manager for a political campaign or rock band.
• Start as a DJ at the school's radio station before picking up gigs as a DJ at clubs
• Offer dance classes at sororities, like Maverick owner, Mark Cuban, did, when he was in college
• On an overseas semester, make contacts. You might find a company you want to work for after you graduate. (I know some students who went back to Africa to work for a travel adventure company where they lead hikes up Mt. Kilimanjaro and sun on the beach in Zanzibar.). Or, when you see a product that isn't sold in your home country, you could become an importer. Interested in movie making?  You might like to work for the film studio in Mauritius.
• Learn to build robots.
• Take a drawing class and create your own cartoon character before signing up for a comics class and sending samples to Marvel and The New Yorker
• Start combining subjects like biology and chemistry, medicine and religion, or economics and behavioral psychology like Richard Thaler did, when he just became a Nobel Prize winner.
• Scour departments for internships and ask professors if they know of any 
• Study literature to find English legends, German fairy tales, and Greek myths you can borrow for your own novels
• Write sketches and scenes for drama students and student reviews
• Study history to find inspiration for your own Hamilton or a Black Panther and warrior women who resemble the African warrior king, Shaka Zulu, and the female bodyguards of Muammar al-Qaddafi

Learn about operations and trends

Mingle with a purpose at rock concerts, motor car racing events, and football games. Shop with an eye to differences between discount stores, specialty boutiques, and pop up retailers at resorts and decide which is the best fit for the items you want to sell. Study the ways apartments are advertised and try your hand at real estate sales. Start to find opportunity everywhere you are.

     

   

   

Get Real About Forecasting 2018's Happenings

At the start of 2018, there has been no shortage of predictions about what will happen this year. TIME magazine devoted its entire January 15 issue, guest edited by Bill Gates, to a future of positive developments.

I have seen claims that the best places to find a job are in Arizona: Chandler and Scottsdale. Brain power will be enhanced by supplements or meditation. Advertisers will be more interested in how much time we view their commercials, rather than in how many commercials we see. Companies will mine data to personalize the messages they send us. Besides those designing technological developments, more people will be involved in considering the consequences of these developments, such as automated warfare and gene editing.

All of these forecasts remind me of the professor who said the only way to make accurate predictions is to forecast often. His prediction is more accurate than ever in our fast changing world, where today's jobs can be gone tomorrow and where so-called stable governments can disappear in the next election or coup.

No doubt, a variety of resources provide frequent updates. I'm just giving an example of one: TrendWatching.com offers its Premium Service subscribers a 100-page plus "2018 Trend Report,"  but it also provides a free daily look at innovations from around the world, innovations that often are worth imitating immediately. Businesses are reminded, for example, that they have become Glass Boxes. Consumers and potential employees have multiple ways to find out about their culture, people, processes, and product ingredients, not just their stock's performances. Evolution is not finished.

Stage Your Life

Lin-Manuel Miranda, born of poor immigrant parents from Puerto Rico, wrote and stars in the extremely successful Broadway musical, "Hamilton." On the other hand, a 28-year-old man who was turned down for a job in Tunisia committed suicide by electrocuting himself on a utility pole. Clearly, there are alternative ways to become the center of attention on stage and off.

     Suppose you want to get into a field that is very competitive and has few openings. First of all, it may be a good idea to keep your plan to yourself, since others will be ready to discourage you. Lin-Manuel Miranda's road to "Hamilton" began by reading Ron Chernow's biography of Alexander Hamilton. He saw that Hamilton in real life was very wordy. The rap music Miranda loved also was very dense with words, and it would be the perfect vehicle to tell Hamilton's story in a musical. Besides, he went to John Weidman, who had turned history into a musical called "Assassins," to ask for advice.

     This season we've all heard of Stephen Curry, the Golden State Warrior who is making basketball history with his extra long 3-point shots. At 6'3" and 185 lbs, in a game of giants, he decided he could stand out as a shooter. Want to begin imitating him, check out the website, "30 tips to help become a better shooter." First step, practice, practice, practice. For another route into a sports career, study the erudition of ESPN's "First Take" commentator, Stephen A. Smith, who does his research and can write.

     Spend all your free time playing video games? Learn how to develop one. Even former US Supreme Court Justice, Sandra Day O'Connor founded the iCivics games. Just about any interest can be turned into a video game, considering the wide variety on the market: physical activity in
"GoNoodle," immigration officer for a country in "Papers, Please," rocket building in "Kerbal Space Program," math-related challenges in "Twelve a Dozen," designing a game in "Kodu Game Lab." Check out the igda.org website of the International Game Developers Association to learn about the scholarships it provides and what else it does for a global membership network of game developers.  

     While you are moving toward your super job, even the most lowly job provides an income and offers a chance to look around, to see how business works, to learn how customers behave, to improve your skills, and to become more valuable to an employer by making your job more productive and efficient. On the job, you can meet people and learn whom you need to know to get into your chosen field. Which employees are rewarded with thousands of dollars and promotions at the end of the US television show, "Undercover Boss?"  Those who treat customers well, follow the rules, offer suggestions that will provide more efficient and better service, and appreciate being given an opportunity (like the ex-convict who was a fast learner and hard worker). Everything you can learn on a job is a valuable lesson for your future.

    Suppose no one will hire you, while you are preparing for your dream job. Suicide is not the only option. Crowdfunding sites might be able to attract investors for your project. Try setting up a page on kickstarter, indiegogo, fundable, fondly, InvestingZone, Growthdeck, or other crowdfunding sites that continue to appear. Chinese young people who migrate to urban areas to find work, like other young people who continue to live with their parents, know they can return to family farms, if they fail to find a job in a car or computer factory. Skilled handy men and women who live on farms can offer their services to professionals in urban areas. With a truck, haul away junk and things that can be recycled from businesses and residences. In a family, one with a job can pay the bills while another can take over the household, childcare, and financial management responsibilities.  In some countries, governments do the job of relatives by providing benefits while the unemployed have the job of, for example, finding their next acting jobs.

(For other ideas to help find the position you really want, check out earlier posts, "Can't Find a Job or Career, Create One" and "Star-struck Realities.")

   

Can't Find a Job or Career; Create One

Throughout the world, younger and younger entrepreneurs and performers are making use of websites, YouTube, and Kickstarter-like platforms to, yes, kickstart their own ventures. Based on Time magazine's report (Nov. 9, 2015) that only 26% of the global workforce has a good job that provides at least 30 hours of work for a weekly paycheck, young people need to look to themselves to create their futures. Even in the USA, according to Time's data, only 44% of the workforce has a good job. In China, the percentage is 28, and in Burkina Faso, it is 5%.

     Under these conditions, starting a business, not-for-profit organization, or any other type of career by yourself or with friends is an attractive alternative. A how-to book is here to help. Crazy is a Compliment: the Power of Zigging When Everyone Else Zags is written by Linda Rottenberg,         co-founder and chief executive officer of Endeavor, an international organization dedicated to helping the new, fast-growing businesses of entrepreneurs. She provides real life experiences from emerging countries in Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, as well as from developed markets in the United States and Europe. For example, Rottenberg tells the story of Wences Casares, who was born on a sheep farm in Argentina. While he was in high school, he started painting and selling T-shirts. Then, he downloaded all the unedited telephone numbers from his village, corrected them, and published and sold a directory that also carried paid advertising.

Here are a few of Rottenberg's helpful conclusions:

• Consider stability the friend of the status quo and chaos the friend of the entrepreneur who sees opportunities where others see obstacles.
• It's a common misperception that an entrepreneur has to start with personal wealth, an ivy league degree, and a Rolodex full of contacts. In reality, Rottenberg has found the opposite is true; they most often lack connections, an elite old school network, and a trust fund.
• When you first get an idea for a new venture, don't tell anyone about it. Family and friends will either say it sounds great because they love/like you, or they will discourage you. One way to get objective feedback is to ask for it on a crowdfunding site.
• Although some risk is necessary, just invest enough to create a minimum viable product or a relatively small adaptation, not a mind-blowing prototype or a multitude of different products. As Henry Ford said, "Nothing is particularly hard if you divide it into small jobs." Take incremental steps, get feedback, and adjust. You don't necessarily need a business plan which probably will change as soon as you start doing something.

     Rottenberg also has a section that alerts would-be entrepreneurs to the strengths and weaknesses their personalities bring to their new enterprises. She terms visionaries like Mark Zuckerbert, Dreamers; charismatic personalities like Oprah, Stars; those who can reenergize traditional businesses like Ikea founder, Ingvar Kamprad, Transformers; and strategic, analytical thinkers like Bill Gates, Rocketships. Which personality type of entrepreneur are you?