2021's Presidential Hot Topics

At tonight's presidential debate between US President Trump and former Vice President, Joe Biden, the candidates have their last chance to detail how they would meet the challenges the country will face in 2021 and beyond. What are those challenges? The Foreign Policy Association has released the following list of the global issues their groups will be discussing when they meet remotely next year. It would be interesting to see if you can check off any of these issues discussed at tonight's presidential debate. 1. The role of international organizations in a global pandemic. 2. Global supply chains and national security. 3. China and Africa. 4. Korean peninsula. 5. Persian Gulf security. 6. Brexit and the European Union. 7. The fight over the melting Arctic. 8. The end of globalization. The US presidential candidates touched on all of these topics, except the supply chain, which is complicated by moral as well as economic and political considerations: and Brexit and the EU, which is not of much interest to US voters. COVID-19 and China were discussed, but not in relation to international organizations or Africa. North Korea, with an economy crippled by sanctions and crop damage from unusually punishing typhoon rain, needs help, maybe from China, but possibly from selling weaponry to would-be nuclear states using hard-to trace cryptocurrency. The future of the oil industry discussion involved both the Persian Gulf and the effect of climate change melting in the Arctic. The future of globalization involves jobs, always a subject of US presidential debates. For information about how to engage in the Foreign Policy Association's discussion groups, go to fpa.org.

Putin's Private Siberian Project Excludes Alexei Navalny

Two-dimensional maps often show Russia on the far right side and the United States all the way over on the left. This separation provides the false impression the countries are far apart. But as John McCain's vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, famously observed, she could see Russia from her kitchen window. Presumably, Russia's President Vladimir Putin can see the United Staes from a Siberian window. And lately, US military planes have intercepted Russian planes snooping from the skies over Alaska. Climate change turned Siberia, once identified with Russian prison camps in an inhospitable frozen wasteland, into what President Putin calls the East Sibrian Sea's Northern Sea Route "a matter of national pride." With increased seasonal passage through Arctic waters comes faster market access for oil and gas from Russia's Yamal Penninsula and a new military option. Beginning on September, 11, 2018, Russia, China and Mongolia participated in Vostok-2018, a massive military exercise in Siberia. By the middle of 2020, Vladimir Putin, who considered the collapse of the USSR the 20th century's geopolitical disaster, felt confident. Russia tamed the Chechnya separatists in 2000 and annexed Crimea in 2014. Possible domination of Georgia and Belarus was still in play. The US was about to walk away from an Open Skies Treaty, resisted by the Kremlin ever since one was designed to prevent surprise attacks after World War II. Refusing to authorize treaty-permtted flights over Russia's military exercises and staging areas for nuclear weapons aimed at Europe provoked the US to designate a final November, 2020 participation date. Russia already interfered with US elections in 2016 and was prepared to do so again in 2020. On July 1, 2020, voters approved a referendum allowing a Russian president to serve two consecutive 6-year terms after the next election, when the current term of President Putin, age 67, ends in 2024. At this propitious moment, Putin's political nemesis, Alexei Navalny, arrived in Siberia. Mr. Navalny's anti-corruption message had gained traction in Russia's urban areas, where his slick YouTube delivery system skirted state-owned media and inspired massive protests when Putin decided to return to the presidency in 2012. By 2020, Navalny was far outside Russia's major cities schooling opposition city council candidates who won two seats and ousted the majority held by Putin's United Russian party in the student town of Tomsk in Siberia's elections on Sunday, September 13, 2020. By winning one seat in Novosibirsk and uniting with three other independent candidates, the United Russian party also seemed likely to lose its majority there. Timing favored Mr. Navalny's opposition party, since the coronavirus exposed the effect of falling oil prices on a falling standard of living, while Putin's wealthy oligarchy buddies remained untouched. On the plane back to Moscow from Siberia, Mr. Navalny became seriously ill. The plane made an emergency landing in Omsk, Siberia, where Alexei spent two days in a coma before the Kremlin allowed a plane to fly him to Germany on August 22, 2020. There, and also later in laboratories in France and Sweden, doctors determined he was exposed to the nerve gas chemical weapon, Novichok, the same poison that nearly killed the former Russian spy, Sergei Skripal, in England. On Tuesday, September 8, 2020, a masked man threw a foul-smelling liquid into the offices of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation in Novosibirsk, Siberia. By Wednesday, September 9, German officials announced the attack on Navalny forced them to reconsider Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, which already is a source of controversy in Germany and Poland. Although Mr. Navalny came out of his coma on Monday, September 7, 2020, and could walk a short distance by September 14, German physicians remain uncertain about the extent of his long-term recovery. German doctors released Mr. Navalny from the hospital on September, 22, 2020. He will remain in Germany for rehabilitation but has expressed his intention to return to Russia, where court orders have frozen his bank accounts and, on August 27, 2020, seized his apartment to prevent it from being "sold, donated, or mortgaged." Knowing Mr. Navalny will be greeted with a rousing rally when he returns to Moscow, Putin certainly is planning to counter his reception. It is interesting to note how enthusiastic Vladimir Putin was about Siberia, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited him in 2010. He took her to a map in his dacha's private office to show her the areas where he was involved in saving Siberian tigers and polar bears from extinction. An earlier post, "North Pole Flag," also details Russia's continuing interest in the Arctic.

Winter Is Not Only Coming; The Polar Vortex Arrived

A wall of ice and "winter is coming" are not just fictions from Game of Thrones. According to a climate scientist from the University of Wisconsin, polar bears are not the only ones who suffer from the global warming that reduces the size of ice bergs. Collapsing glaciers should raise concern, not just entertain, tourists to Alaska.

Once a glacier's ice wall cracks, it enables a swoosh of Arctic air to rush south. The polar vortex that crippled the midwestern United States last week can result. Frigid temperatures also cause frost quakes like the one experienced near Lake Michigan in Chicago.  When sections of underground water freeze, they can crash together with a loud bang and cause slight tremors similar to an earthquake. 

If you've ever tried to function when it is minus 20 degrees with a wind chill that makes it feel like minus 40 or 50 degrees, you will see how serious a glacier break can be. People freeze to death. Systems equipped to heat homes in Wisconsin only handle minus 16 degrees, and last week they did not heat homes well enough to prevent the need to wear gloves inside. Water mains break; fighting fires becomes even more hazardous; buses cannot run because diesel fuel turns to gel; car batteries don't start.

If we add the effect of frigid weather to that of burning heat caused by global warming, or if you want to call it climate change, the future of life on planet Earth looks bleaker and bleaker.   

   

Holiday Gift List for Modern Kids

Toy companies offer today's children a roster of robots almost from birth. Kids aged five and up can command  Botley the Coding Robot to go around objects and to master an obstacle course. The MindWare company (mindware.com) provides easy-to-follow instructions that enable eight-year-olds to assemble and program robots operated by batteries, solar, hydraulic, or chemical power. Some robots from MindWare use artificial intelligence and infrared sensors. One climbs smooth surfaces using a suction system.

     Rapidly advancing technology makes learning to read more important than ever. The best books to give young children are the ones adults enjoy reading to them over and over again. When my granddaughter was young, my favorite was Click, Clack, Moo Cows that Type by Doreen Cronin. Keith Bellows does more than provide motivation to read about the world. In 100 Places That Can Change Your Child's Live, he describes tantalizing destinations, lists places to eat and stay, and even suggests the most worthwhile souvenirs to bring home.

     A globe is the perfect gift companion to help children locate where they live and to plot a trip around the world. Globes also give kids a sense of distance and a sense of the correct size of continents. From  home, would it take longer to get to the Arctic or to Africa? At the equator, land masses on two-dimensional maps appear accurate in size, but distortion increases away from the North and South poles. Greenland begins to look as large as Africa even though it is thirteen times smaller.

     In a "Peanuts" comic strip, Lucy once broke into a conversation the other kids were having about what gifts they wanted to say she wanted real estate. While a deed to several acres of real estate may be out of the question, giving children government bonds would give them a stake in their countries' futures. If an older child requests a smartphone, couple it with an index card listing three stocks and their trading prices on a day in December. Show him or her a smartphone can be used to keep track of stock prices not only to engage in social chatter.

     Food commercials tempt kids to put down their smartphones and come to the table when there is something good to eat. Why not involve children in baking and cooking their own good eats? Gift them with recipes, pans, pots, and oven mitts to make their favorite cookies or pasta dishes. In the same vein, crafty adults might gift wrap lumber, a tool, and directions for making a picture frame or yarn, knitting needles, and directions for making a scarf.

     Some organizations have found ways to involve children in their causes by matching contributions with rewards. For example, a portion of the price of every gift purchased from the UNICEF Market (unicefmarket.org/catalog) goes to deliver food, vaccines, mosquito nets, and other lifesaving supplies to children around the world. Presents of UNICEF games, puzzles and art materials not only are fun, but they also are a way for children to aid kids suffering in crisis areas. In the World Wildlife Foundation's catalog (wwfcatalog.org), potential donors find a wide variety of gift ideas for kids. One of the most popular World Wildlife programs, symbolic animal adoptions, couples a donation with a child's gift of a soft plush version of an adopted animal, ranging from a familiar elephant to an exotic blue-footed booby.

     Finally, a $25 gift card from kiva.org introduces children to a form of venture capitalism. Using their card, they can choose the country, man or woman, and project they want to support. Computer updates inform them every time part of their loan is repaid. Holiday gifts can show modern kids it is both blessed to receive and to give.

China Stakes New Claim to Arctic

When warming from climate change uncovered portions of the ice sheet on Greenland, Chinese tourists arrived as did Chinese mining companies interested in the country's newly accessible deposits of rare earth minerals, said to be the world's tenth largest known deposit. In September, 2019, London's Rainbow mining company announced it was ready to expand rare earth production in Burundi to twenty times its current output in order to compete with China, already the world's major extractor of  the hazardous-to-mine rare earth elements. Rare earth elements have a wide variety of uses in hybrid cars, catalytic converters, wind turbines, aircraft engines, cell phones, film making, oil refining, x-rays, powerful magnets for MRI machines, control rods in nuclear reactors, and for TV and computer screens.

To date, Greenland's 56,000 citizens rely on fishing exports and an annual grant from Denmark. An independence movement lobbies to free Greenland from Denmark, and Greenland's Prime Minister Kim Kielsen sees potential ties with China as a way to eliminate the need for Denmark's help. (The earlier post, "Iceland Gives China the Cold Shoulder," describes China's earlier attempt to stake a claim in the Arctic.)

Denmark is not opposed to granting Greenland's independence. But it now does use Greenland as a way to claim Arctic land and the U.S. military base on Greenland to claim an exemption from paying its share of NATO funding. (In 2019, Norway's leader termed President Trump's attempt to purchase Greenland "ridiculous.")

China's Manifest Destiny East, West, North, and South

Mainland China is not about to let Hong Kong stand in the way of its "Manifest Destiny" to the East. Despite the terms of the 1984 Sino-British treaty that ended colonial rule and prepared Hong Kong to become a semi-autonomous region of China on July 1, 1997, the island is unlikely to remain unchanged for 50 years. In fact, free elections ended three years ago. On June 30, 2017, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry said the mainland is no longer bound by the 1984 treaty.

     On July 1, 2017, just before Hong Kong's annual march to commemorate the 1984 treaty, China's President Xi Jinping, on his first visit to the island, warned "Any attempt to endanger China's sovereignty and security, challenge the power of the central government...or use Hong Kong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against the mainland" is an "impermissible" way to cross a red line.

     Martin Lee,  who is known as Hong Kong's "father of democracy," observed money is all the Communist Party has. (Under Deng Xiaoping, China embraced striving for economic progress by the country and individuals.) It has no core values or principles of freedom, civil rights, or a rule of law.
He told the 60,000 or more pro-democracy protesters on July 1, "Even if our country will be the last in the entire world to reach that goal, we will still get there."

     Meanwhile, China will continue to pursue its eastward quest to dominate the South China Sea and maintain control over its so-called semi-autonomous regions: Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

     Activities involving India and Myanmar (Burma) also reveal China's interest in securing a strategic position in the West. Its Maritime Silk Road (road, bridge, and tunnel) project, estimated by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to cost at least $1.7 trillion per year through 2030, is designed to reconstruct the ancient Silk Road linking China to India. The hydroelectric dam China built on the Brahmaputra River gives Beijing control over the needed monsoon water that flows from Tibet through India and Bangladesh. And China's interest in securing access to the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar prevents Beijing from pressuring that country to severe its military ties to North Korea.

     As for China's quests in the North and South, see the posts, "China Stakes a New Arctic Claim," China's plans for its Polar Silk Road in "Santa Opens Arctic for Business,"  and "China Is Everywhere in Africa."

Russia Continues to Live in the Past

News of Russia's training for military operations and plans for oil drilling in the Arctic indicate Moscow continues to stake its future on aggression and wealthy oligarchs. Neither will stem volatile oil prices, which dropped to the $43-$44 a barrel range June 26-27, 2017, or unlock the sanctions, imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, that block the import of drilling and fracking equipment needed to exploit the Arctic's oil and gas.

Nor, it seems, is Russia positioning itself to take advantage of the new commercial Northwest Passage opportunities climate change brings to the Arctic Ocean, such as voyages of cruise ships like the Crystal Serenity that carried 1,700 passengers and crew from Alaska to New York in the summer of 2016.

To catch up on the race for the Arctic, see the earlier posts, "North Pole Flag" and "Iceland Gives China the Cold Shoulder."

Apply Now for Summer Opportunities

It's easy for students to miss out on summer opportunities, because deadlines are early in the year. My granddaughter has spent two summers in a science lab at the University of Wisconsin, because she attended an informational session, obtained teacher recommendations, and submitted the required application before February. Besides summer programs offered by colleges and universities, summer foreign travel/study tours, and summer acting/dance classes also have early deadlines.

     Girls ages 16 and 17 on June 1, 2017 have an excellent example of summer opportunities available to them, if they apply before January 31, 2017. The University of Alaska Fairbanks College of Natural Science and Mathematics and the International Arctic Research Center offer three FREE summer expeditions designed to combine scientific field studies with glaciologists and oceanographers, art, critical thinking, and mountaineering or kayaking.

• Girls on Ice Alaska explore an Alaskan glacier June 16-27, 2017. Program is open to girls 16 and 17 from Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, the Yukon, and California. 
• Girls on Ice Cascades explore Mount Baker, an ice-covered volcano in Washington State. Program is open to girls 16 and 17 in all countries.
• Girls in Icy Fjords explore Bear Glacier, the marine environment in a fjord near Seward, Alaska, and learn to kayak August 11-22, 2017. Program is open to girls 16 and 17 in all countries.

For more information and the application process, go to inspiringgirls.org. At inspiringgirls.org/alternative-opportunities, you also can sign up to be added to a mailing list that alerts girls to other programs besides Arctic expeditions.

Iceland Gives China the Cold Shoulder

Unlike Russia and the United States, China has no military or commercial presence in the Arctic. To date, Beijing's attempts to remedy the situation have failed. China's hope for a foothold in a European NATO member were dashed, when the Iceland sheep farm Huang Nubo, a former official in the Chinese Communist Party's Propaganda Department, tried to buy was sold to British shale gas fracking billionaire, Jim Ratcliffe, in December, 2016.

(If a student has a globe, this would be a good opportunity to see where a sheep farm in northeastern Iceland would be in relation to the Arctic Circle and to see which other countries are in or near Arctic waters.)

Trading on his relationship with Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson, his former roommate at Peking University, Huang first visited Iceland in 2010 to establish a China-Iceland Culture Fund to finance meetings of poets. Sveinbjornsson has said Huang was "not an idiot" and did not think Huang's offer to buy the sheep farm for $7 million in 2011 was a front for other than the stated eco-resort purpose.

In 2012 , the state-owned China Development Bank put up $100 million to back Huang's plan to build a luxury hotel and golf course in Grimsstadir, Iceland. In the 100 square mile sheep farm, where snow falls from September to May, Huang claimed that what he called his 100-room, high end, environmentally friendly resort was designed for wealthy Chinese tourists looking for clean air, peace, and quiet.

Since Huang's Zhongkun Group chose a location near oil reserves where China bid for a drilling license on Iceland's northeast coast and also planned to upgrade a landing strip to handle 10 aircraft, a suspicious interior minister rejected a request to exempt Huang from Iceland't laws restricting foreign land ownership. Huang countered with a proposal for a long-term lease arrangement which also was not approved.

 Ratcliffe will own two thirds of the Grimsstadir property; the Icelandic government and other minority investors will own the rest. Ratcliffe says his interest in Iceland is conservation, particularly for protecting area rivers that are important breeding grounds for Atlantic salmon. The Strengur angling club that leases rivers in Grimsstadir expressed pleasure having Ratcliffe as a partner they know as an avid salmon angler who has fished the area for years.

Beijing has made multiple approaches to Iceland. From its vantage point in the South China Sea, China is used to presiding over 30% of the world's ocean-going trade. Looking ahead to the prospect of climate change permitting more traffic through warming Arctic waters, China has expressed an interest in using Iceland as a shipping hub. China's embassy building in Reykjavik is the city's largest. The two countries negotiated a Free Trade Area accord. And, in an attempt to become an observer, China sent its Snow Dragon icebreaker for a stop at Iceland during an Arctic Council meeting of eight nations (Russia, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Canada, and the United States).

As opposed to China, Russia's oil and gas drilling prospects in the Arctic could improve. Rex Tillerson, currently Exxon Mobil's CEO and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's choice for Secretary of State, has close ties with Russia.

North Pole Flag

     Santa Claus has a flag now. Thanks to the "Flag for the Future" competition jointly sponsored by the Association of Girl Guides and Girl Scouts and Greenpeace's "Save the Arctic," the North Pole, which is surrounded by high seas that no country owns, has a new flag.

     British designer, Dame Vivienne Westwood, on March 17, 2013, declared the winner of the "Flag for the Future" competition a pennant-shaped flag designed by 13-year-old Sarah Bartrisyia from Malaysia. On a white background, Ms. Bartrisyia used a circle of seven multicolored doves around Arctic starflowers to symbolize peace, hope, and global community.

     The winning design will be reproduced on a titanium flag and stuck in the Arctic ice alongside a time capsule containing a Greenpeace petition signed by those who want to preserve the Arctic from overfishing and oil drilling. Drilling noise and vibrations also could have an impact on fish behavior, while an oil spill would be difficult to contain in ice-clogged waters. When a pipeline ruptured off Santa Barbara's California coast on May 19, 2015, the 105,000 gallon oil spill showed what can happen when drilling occurs anywhere. To dramatize the under-reported perils of drilling for oil in the Arctic, six Greenpeace volunteers climbed aboard Shell's gigantic oil rig, Polar Pioneer, in April, 2015 as it was en route through the Pacific Ocean to Alaska. June, 2015 saw Greenpeace volunteers in their kayaks blocking the Shell rig from leaving port in Seattle. Later, they hung from a bridge to dramatize the need to block the rig's progress to the Arctic. For more about the need to protect the Arctic and to sign a petition asking world leaders to ban oil drilling and industrial fishing in Arctic waters, go to savethearctic.org.

     In London, you can purchase a "Save the Arctic" T-shirt designed by Vivienne Westwood at her World's End Shop at 430 Kings Road. The cost is 35 British pounds.

      BP already operates in Alaska's offshore Arctic. Operating with Rosneft, the state-owned Russian energy company with the world's highest oil output, BP has a controlling interest in British-Russian TNK-BP and is set to launch a series of big projects in Russia's Arctic. As a result of Russia's actions in Ukraine in March and April, 2014, however, BP stockholders and Rosneft were concerned about the company's Russian investments until BP signed a major shale deal with Rosneft in May, 2014. In mid-2018, BP also would purchase the US shale assets of BHP for $10.5 billion.

     Concern about Rosneft's profits was justified in 2014, when the drop in oil prices and the value of the ruble caused fourth quarter losses. By August, 2018, however, a barrel of crude was selling in the mid $60s and Rosnett''s quarterly net profit reached $3.7 billion. When a BP oil spill sent 170 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the company withdrew its bid for an exploration license to drill around Danish-owned Greenland. In 2014, BP renewed its application and, along with Statoil and other firms, won an exploration license there.  A Chinese group is bidding for a license to drill for oil off of neighboring Iceland. Although the remote Chukchi Sea area of the Arctic experiences extreme weather conditions and lacks preparation to deal with an oil spill that would endanger wild life and indigenous communities, in 2008, the U.S. Department of the Interior sold oil and gas leases there.

     The 8-nation intergovernmental Arctic Council, that includes Russia, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Canada, and the United States, has failed to agree on regulations that would govern oil and gas exploration in the Arctic region. Relying on a 1953 law that allows U.S. presidents to take executive action to prevent leasing of unleased lands in the federally administered Outer Continental Shelf, President Obama, in December, 2016, placed an indefinite ban on oil and gas leases in the Alaskan Beaufort and Chukchi areas of U.S. Arctic waters. Canada took similar actions. Both counties plan to identify shipping lanes through their protected areas, where harsh conditions would hamper cleaning up oil spills.

      The Arctic region is believed to hold 30% of undiscovered gas deposits and 13% of undiscovered oil reserves. Ice melt in the area is opening a larger region for gas and oil exploration and, consequently, a larger area for border disputes and conflicting claims of sovereignty. By submarine, Russia planted a flag 2.5 miles beneath the North Pole in 2007, and according to TIME magazine (Aug. 17, 2015), the country submitted a formal claim to the United Nations for 463,000 square miles around the pole on Aug. 4, 2015. On April 30, 2017, NBC's Evening News showed Russian military men and armor training in the Arctic.  Canada and Denmark (based on its Greenland island territory) have staked claims to sovereignty on territory including the North Pole by arguing that the Lomonosov Ridge of the continental shelf extends under the pole from their countries. A U.N. panel is expected to decide the disputes.

     For information about other world flags, see my earlier blog post, "A Salute to Flags."