China's One Belt, One Road: Pakistan's Cautionary Tale

Back in 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) section of China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) Initiative was expected to bring economic development and jobs to Pakistan and also provide substantial benefits to China. The new deep water port at Gwadar, Pakistan, on the Arabian Sea would enable China to transport oil from the Middle East up through Pakistan to western China rather than across the Indian Ocean and through the congested Malacca Straight between Indonesia and Malaysia to the South China Sea. By encircling India, the CPEC offered a way to balance or neutralize democratic India's influence in the region, but the CPEC also involved China in India's Kashmir border dispute with Pakistan high in the Himalaya Mountains. Shots fired on the border in Septemebr, 2020, violated an Indo-Chinese agreement. Pakistan found the terms of the CPEC less than transparent and a debt burden Beijing was unwilling to renegotiate. The Chinese support Pakistan expected for its border dispute with India failed to materialize. In fact, in September, 2017, China and India signed an anti-terrorist declaration that criticized Pakistan for shielding terrorist groups. The US even floats the notion that China might be an ally willing to help persuade Pakistan to pressure its Taliban friends to help stabilize neighboring Afghanistan. The bottom line is: Pakistan's deteriorating economy, made worse by the coronavirus, finds 18 million employees out of work. China, which expects repayment for the CPEC, has no need for Pakistan's textile exports. CPEC construction jobs failed to satisfy Pakistan's need for the education, technical training and scientific research necessary for modern employment, such as monitoring and correcting Pakistan's poor air quality. Finally, the CPEC involves atheistic China with a Muslim country, when China is trying to eliminate the Uighur Muslim culture in Kashgar, home of the Id Kah Mosque, and to control up to one million Uighurs in so-called re-education camps. At the same time, Pakistan's Hindu minority, already discriminated against in better economic times, is converting to Islam just to receive assistance from the government and charities.

China-Mongolia and the Deaths of Race Horses in California

Many aspects of global life illustrate how connected the world is. As preposterous as a connection between China, Mongolia, and last year's deaths of 23 horses at California's Santa Anita racetrack  seems, it is a connection worthy of  investigation.

     On the books, China's Communist regime outlawed gambling when it took over in 1949. Efforts continue to purge online betting apps, and prison awaits those who challenge Chairman Xi's abhorrence of corruption. Nonetheless, local administrators of state-run lotteries manage to take their cuts, gamblers access online casino apps designed in Southeast Asia, illegal mah jong games hide from overhead drones in China's woods and mountains, and police even had to break up gambling at a cricket fighting tournament near Shanghai in August, 2019.

     Off shore, casinos dominate Macao, a former Portuguese island and now a Chinese Special Administrative Region. In 2017, New Zealand created a Jockey Club to attract Chinese  thoroughbred buyers and to cater to Chinese owners who want to train and race their horses in Australia and New Zealand. When Justify won the Kentucky Derby and the other two legs of the U.S. Triple Crown in 2018, owners from the China Horse Club just laughed after a reporter questioned how racing squared with China's ban on gambling.

     If there is a connection between China and the 23 race horses that died at Santa Anita, it runs through China's landlocked northern neighbor, Mongolia. The historic domain of Genghis Khan's horses and riders also is the current home of dusty courses where hundreds of children as young as five ride bareback in races to win a Russian-made car. When racing was legal in China, owners used to send their horses north to strengthen their bones by grazing in the nutrient-rich  pastures of Mongolia. Reporting on the fatal leg injury that caused the horse, Mongolian Groom, to be euthanized after the Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita in November, 2019, Billy Reed mentioned the need to reassess the calcium-building limestone content of the soil and water where many race horses graze in Kentucky.

     As a cause of last year's race horse deaths, in recent months the coronavirus is receiving more attention that the dietary value of Kentucky's pastures, Scientists suspected COVID-19 could pass between animals and humans after researchers discovered pig farmers died of coronavirus in Malaysia. Observers watched bats land on a tree and poop into a vat of pig slop. Tests found the bats carried COVID-19 and transmitted the disease to farmers who had contact with the pig slop.

     The coronavirus that affects humans and the equine enteric (gastrointestinal) coronavirus horses pass between each other are both among the large group of RNA messenger viruses. Since both forms of the virus in horses and humans lock onto cells using the same kind of spikes, transmission between  these species is highly probable. Lack of evidence showing horses and humans exchange COVID-19 at this time may be a function of a lack of testing fecal samples of thoroughbred race horses and the failure to test personnel at Mongolian Stable, who may have shown little or no initial symptoms of the virus.

     In August, 2019, the San Diego Tribune ran a photo showing Enebish Ganbat, a Mongolian who trains horses at Mongolian Stable, kissing Mongolian Groom's face. Such gestures, not unusual among those who love and care for horses, provide ample opportunity for humans and horses to transmit coronavirus to each other. Horses contract equine enteric coronavirus by contact with surfaces exposed to the manure of infected horses or by consuming some of their manure. Therefore,  to prevent contracting coronavirus from a horse, people need to wash their hands whenever they touch anything, such as a shovel or pitchfork, that may have been in contact with an infected horse's manure. Unless humans who have or may not yet show symptoms of COVID-19 wear masks, they may spread coronavirus to horses.

     Before racing resumes at Santa Anita this summer, last year's fate of Mongolian Groom is reason to test the nutrient value of Kentucky's pastures and to test for the presence of coronavirus in the horses that race there.

             

China Feels Winds of Change

Not only has the US President tired of China's theft of intellectual property and lopsided trade balance, but Malaysia's new 93-year-old prime minister, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, is fed up with loans for Beijing's worldwide Belt and Road Initiative. Labeling China's project "new colonialism," Dr. Mohamad traveled to Beijing to cancel the previous Malaysian government's agreement to finance a rail line and two pipelines for an inflated $20 billion (China may, however, have a way to regain these contracts, if Beijing turns over Jho Low, who was the mastermind of a financial scam in Malaysia). Sierra Leone's new president, Julius Maada Bio, also told China it canceled the previous administration's contract to build a new airport, since the existing one is underutilized.

     Despite heavy Chinese spending in support of Abdulla Yameen in the Maldives, the atolls that occupy a key position to monitor trade in the Indian Ocean, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih won a surprise victory in that country's September, 2018 presidential election.

     Chinese citizens also were none too happy in September, 2018, when they learned President Xi Jinping, at a meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, committed another $60 billion to 53 African countries after committing $60 billion in 2015. Censors quickly removed social media criticism that claimed loans would not be repaid and aid was needed for domestic projects.

     China's unabashed interest in Africa's mineral commodities and growing market is arousing dormant European competition. Following his trip to China to inquire about funding for infrastructure projects, President Buhari of Nigeria received visits by French President, Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and British prime minister, Theresa May. It was Mrs. May's first trip to former British colonies in five years.

     At home, Tiananmen Square did not end demonstrations in China in 1989. Labeled "picking quarrels and causing trouble," "public-order disturbances," strikes by workers in factories and service industries, or just plain incidents, the Communist Party still tries to tamp out what it considers threats to peace and security by arresting demonstrators and those who post social media information about the protests. Despite these government crack downs, protests continue. In 2016, for example, parents of dead children, whose only children were born during the era of China's one-child policy, took to the streets in Beijing. This year, parents protested a local government's decision to transfer children from nearby schools to distant ones. Whether land is seized by local officials, soldiers demand higher pensions, or a minority wants to practice religion, state controls continue to spark tensions.

     China fears large movements, such as members with loyalties to international  trade union organizations or religions (Muslim, Buddhist, Shinto, or Christian).  The government is wary of any large gathering. Security keeps visitors out of Hongya, the Dalai Lama's birthplace in March, when in 1959, a demonstration against Chinese rule in Tibet led to the Dalai Lama's exile and the dissolution of his government there. During the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, police canceled the Norlha Basketball Invitational tournament in China's Tibetan region. The Public Security Bureau feared the large crowd of spectators the tournament would attract in the Dalai Lama's former domain. (Also see the later posts, "Challenging Chinese New Year" and "Playgrounds Welcome March Basketball.")

China's Plan for World Domination

What developing country could resist participating in China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiatives to construct roads, railroads, bridges, and power plants that would enable a rural exodus to jobs in urban centers, employ the unemployed, stimulate manufacturing, and facilitate trade? What developed country could resist participating in the financial enterprise of investing in China's estimated $1 trillion to $8 trillion project?

     That's the good news. Students are challenged to activate their critical thinking to anticipate, and even suggest solutions for, the problems that have and will develop along these routes.

Finance: Traditionally, the international financial institutions charged with funding major projects include the World Bank, dominated by the United States; the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose president comes from Europe; and the Asian Development Bank headed by a president from Japan. Because the funding process of these institutions was considered too slow and the required plan preparation was too costly, a New Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and Silk Road Fund were established to pick up the pace.
      Since then, the Islamic Development Bank has agreed to jointly finance African projects with the AIIB, and Japanese, British, and US banks also are looking into ways to cooperate with China. Japan and the United States did not join the AIIB, because they suspected the bank would lack concern about labor, environmental sustainability, and requirements for democratic reform, since China considers all political systems equal and claims not to interfere with a recipient's sovereignty. As it has turned out, the AIIB is careful to abide by international norms, but the bank seems to retain its image by avoiding involvement with One Belt, One Road (OBOR) projects.
     After World War II, the Marshall Plan helped rebuild a Europe that had existed. China's One Belt, One Road plan attempts to build something that never existed before what exits is ready to use it. As a result, Chinese development projects and financing bury recipients, such as Angola and Zambia, in debt. Half the countries in sub-Sahara Africa now have public debt greater than half their GDPs. There is growing concern about the raw materials, state power utilities, and other compensation China might require in case of loan defaults. Sri Lanka already was asked to share intelligence about traffic passing through its now bankrupt and Chinese-seized port. Zambia's default on a Chinese loan repayment resulted in immediate discussions that could lead to seizure of Zambia's electric company, ZESCO. The following eight countries have been singled out as in danger of assuming too great a Chinese debt burden: Laos, Kyrgyzstan, the Maldives, Montenegro, Djibouti, Tajikistan, Mongolia, and Pakistan.
     Pakistan's new prime minister, Imran Khan, found out countries cannot escape hard financial realities. Fed up with "hand outs from the West," Pakistan hoped to avoid the scrutiny of loan requests submitted to the IMF. But even China, in the process of using Pakistan to gain access to the mineral riches in Afghanistan's mountains and to encircle India with its OBOR projects, balked at loaning funds to cover the $10 billion Pakistan needs for the next few month's fuel imports and foreign debt repayments. Saudi Arabia only offered to consider investing in the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the part of China's OBOR that includes a deep water port at Gwadar, Pakistan, and a major dam at Karot on the Pakistan-India-Chinese border. Now that the IMF is evaluating Pakistan's loan application, China also faces scrutiny of the secret terms of its CPEC contracts.
     Reminiscent of the way Britain achieved control over the Suez Canal, China is creating influence and economic dependency in a wide swath of territory. With complex partnerships, including with the developing countries themselves, and enormous amounts of money at risk, diverse financial instruments handle equity participation, public-private partnerships, insurance, loan guarantees, debt instruments, first-loss equity, challenge funds, grants, and project preparation support. In cases of shared risk, allocating amounts to partners is challenging. Reducing risks also requires staff to monitor project progress and maximize the speed of fixing mistakes. At any time, China can call in loans for non-payment.
   
Political conflict: Beijing's Maritime Silk Road includes the deep water port China is building at Gwadar, Pakistan, to gain access to the Arabian Sea and avoid shipping oil farther east through the congested Malacca Straight. From Gwadar, China plans a route north and east toward the Karot hydroelectric power plant on the Jhelum River southeast of Islamabad and into China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, China, which already uses facial recognition technology to track 2.5 million in its Xinjiang province, also would gain another way to control the restive Uighur Muslim minority that lives among the Chinese Han majority. Since China's President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he has pushed the idea that China's atheistic political system should be considered just as valid, especially for maintaining China's peace and security, as the governments of any other countries.
     Try as hard as it might, however, the Chinese Communist Party has been unable to squelch Muslim Uighurs, but also Christians and Taoists in Chengdu's panda-breeding city and Buddhists in Tibet (as well as democracy activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan). More than a million Uighurs are said to be confined in re-education camps. Increased surveillance using facial recognition, AI, and computer monitoring systems tries to catch violations. Rather than be shut out of a major market, even Google was poised to develop a "Dragonfly" search engine that would meet China's censorship requirements by excluding keywords, such as Tiananmen, until its employees refused to compromise their ethics in order to work on the project.
      A part of the Pakistan to China road also passes through Kashmir, the primarily Muslim site of a territorial dispute between the nuclear powers, Pakistan and Hindu India. For the first time in 30 years, the Kashmir flash point came under a major attack in February, 2019, when a suicide bomber from Pakistan killed 40 of India's security forces. To further complicate border tensions, Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, who is accused of directing the murder of journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, seemed to challenge China's influence in the area by visiting with a promise to invest in Pakistan and India.
     Thus far, India's military buildup, economic shortfalls in the region, and ethnic/religious conflict have prevented Beijing from  surrounding India. The two countries, India and China, already needed to resolve a 2017 border dispute by establishing a hotline between them. With the launch of its Arihant submarine in November, 2018, India enhanced its military capability in the area by adding sea-based, short-range nuclear missiles capable of reaching China and Pakistan to its air- and land-based missile systems.
     In the south, the Indian Ocean's strategic Maldive Islands ousted China's hand-picked president. Under former President Yameen, Chinese influence had started to replace the protection India provided after the Maldives and India achieved independence from Britain. Millions in low interest Chinese loans began funding construction of a bridge from the Maldive capital in Male to the main airport, as well as housing and a hospital that could support a naval base. Saudi Arabia also has showed interest in the Maldive atolls and constructed a major mosque there.
     Beijing's effort to eliminate the need to import oil through the congested Malacca Straight also moves China closer to India in the southeast. China plans to construct a road-rail-pipeline corridor through Myanmar, from its Shan state in the east to a port on the Bay of Bengal in the Rakhine state on the Bangladesh border. The Chinese conglomerate constructing the port is financing 70% of the project, but Myanmar is hard-pressed to fund its 30%, much less the rest of the country-wide project. Myanmar's Buddhist government and military face warring factions: the Muslim Rohingyas; the Arakan Army of Buddhist Rakhine that opposes the Burman-dominated Buddhist government; and the Northern Alliance Brotherhood, a coalition of insurgents from Kachin and Shan states. 
     In Central Asia, China runs into conflict with Russia, especially in resource-rich Kazakhstan, sometimes called the buckle of the new Silk Road.
     The South China Sea finds China challenged by the United States, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Brunei. Of course, there is a chance that rising waters on the overheated planet may swamp the atolls, small islands, and reefs China has militarized there, as well as in the Maldives in the Indian Ocean.
     Finally, any country's government can stall, kill, or seize a project on  China's land and sea routes. History recalls how France and England struggled to build and finance the Suez Canal only to have Gamal Nasser seize it in the spirit of anti-colonial nationalism. Three months into his new position, after defeating Chinese-backed Najib Razak, Malaysia's new, 93-year-old prime minister, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, termed Chinese loans Chinese "colonialism." He traveled to Beijing to cancel the previous government's $20 billion agreement to let China build a high speed railway and two oil pipelines. China may have a way to regain these contracts, however. Malaysia is eager to prosecute Jho Low, the Malaysian mastermind behind a plot that misappropriated funds raised by three bond offerings Goldman Sachs underwrote for a Malaysian wealth fund. China could offer to turn over Mr. Low in exchange for the resumption of the cancelled projects. To block a Chinese-financed upscale Malaysian housing project wealthy Chinese investors, but not most Malaysians, could afford, Dr. Mohamad said Malaysia would not grant visas for foreigners to live there. Anwar Ibrahim is expected to replace Mahathir Mohamad, when he resigns as prime minister.
     Sierra Leone's new president, Julius Maada Bio, canceled the previous administration's contract for the Chinese-financed Mamamah International Airport. As the country's aviation ministry observed, construction of a new airport would be uneconomical when the existing one is underutilized.
       China also experienced opposition, when Nepal referred a Chinese project to review by anti-corruption watchdogs. Feeling overextended, Pakistan shut down projects on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Beijing views as its access to the Arabian Sea. It seeks more lending from China instead of an IMF loan. Even at home, Chinese citizens are beginning to view potential defaults on loans, especially to Africa, as foreign aid better used to finance domestic needs.

Environment: Constructing roads, railroads, bridges, and power plants has a major impact on the environment. At the same time cutting trees to make way for roads, rails, and tunnels, and laying thousands of miles of concrete invite flooding by eliminating anchors for soil and ground to absorb rain, increased truck and car traffic and the added heat from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity from power plants will warm the planet and increase the need for trees to absorb greenhouse gases.
     Railroad projects in Kenya and seaport construction at Walvis Bay, Namibia, led locals to demand protection for wild life. China remains a major market for the ivory and rhino horn poachers obtain by killing Africa's elephants and rhino.
     Infrastructure projects also can be expected to encounter objections from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) with environmental, as well as religious, human rights, and other concerns.

Employment: With a population of 1.4 billion people, China is in a position to provide all the skilled and unskilled labor needed to design, engineer, construct, administer, staff, monitor, and maintain its OBOR and MSR projects. Should governments along these routes expect China to employ their countries' unemployed, China will see no need to pay desirable wages nor to establish exemplary working conditions. Experience in Africa shows China's railroad projects have generated protests over poor pay and treatment. African construction companies even have seen contracts to build government buildings go to Chinese firms instead of local ones. Also, African industries and shop owners that expected to benefit from Chinese-financed roads and rails have found themselves unable to compete with cheaper Chinese imports.
     What cannot be ignored is how the hundreds of migrant workers employed on China's widespread infrastructure projects could pose a major threat of disease transmission, especially of AIDS. Despite the attempt of Chinese managers to confine workers to monitored compounds, employees likely will be determined to find ways to meet local women.

     Looking at topographical  maps will give students an idea of the challenges of constructing routes through mountains, forests, and deserts and over rivers. (The earlier post, "All Aboard for China's African Railroads," describes problems of terrain, as well as financial and other problems, that can arise with projects in developing countries.) All in all, watching the progress along China's One Belt One Road and Maritime Silk Road will give students an interesting learning experience for years to come.

The Palm Oil Dilemma for Consumers

Before consumers buy products they are going to eat or drink, they are beginning to turn them around to check for the added sugars, genetically engineered ingredients, and high fructose corm syrup they want to avoid. The palm oil they find listed in snack foods, as well as in ice cream and other products, also is an ingredient in detergents and beauty products. Africans cook with palm oil, and a woman from Nigeria told me it could control high blood pressure. This widespread use results in a constant pressure to expand palm oil plantations and the following unintended consequences.

• Deforestation of rain forests means fewer carbon emissions can be absorbed to limit climate change.
• Deforestation destroys the tropical forest habitats of endangered species, such as orangutans, rhinos, tigers, and elephants in Sumatra, Indonesia. Plus, roads built into forests enable illegal logging and exporters to reach the rare birds that become part of the underground trade in exotic creatures. 
• Deforestation in parts of Indonesia helped cause floods, according to the World Bank.
• Fires used to clear Indonesian oil palm plantations in 2015 caused the smoke that resulted in respiratory problems in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
• Although corporations make commitments not to use palm oil from suppliers accused of illegal deforestation and from uncertified mills, they often only honor these commitments when an NGO or other groups uncovers a violation or local law enforcement acts.
• Labor is exploited; living and working conditions on plantations are bad. Migrant laborers from Bangladesh, for example, who work on the palm oil plantations in Malaysia often owe third party company recruiters debts they cannot pay. They find they are like prisoners working seven days a week after being forced to surrender their passports.
• Needed food production decreases when farmers switch to growing oil palm. Their debts rise as they purchase seed and fertilizer from the palm oil companies they supply.
• Expansion of palm oil plantations which encroach on village farm land and grazing pastures leads to conflict. 

Ravenous demand for palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, the countries that produce 80% of the world's supply, has not gone unnoticed in Brazil, where research shows almost half of the country's land area is suitable for growing oil palm. At the moment, most of Brazil's palm oil comes from the Amazon state of Para, where plantations employ about 20,000. As in Indonesia and Malaysia, an increase in palm oil production raises fears of illegal deforestation and endangering the biodiverse ecosystem. Rising land prices already have led to land ownership conflicts and even murder.

Relying on Indonesia's environmental laws, eco-warriors now identify illegal palm oil plantations on protected National Park land listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Spotters tell owners of illegal plantations to return the land to authorities or face prosecution. They then cut down each oil palm. In about five years, replanted seedlings begin to help forests recover unless sun burns out young plants or elephants trample them. Altogether, it can take 20 to 200 years for forests to reach their original growth.

Other palm oil players also are determined to combat the effect of deforestation on climate change and to protect endangered animals, birds, and plants. Besides groups, such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) that uses an oil palm symbol to identify "Certified Sustainable Palm Oil," the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), Greenpeace, the Rainforest Action Network, and Friends of the Earth, banks that finance palm oil plantation owners and investors in palm oil companies have begun to show greater concern about backing firms engaged in deforestation. When the Noble Group, owner of palm oil's Noble Plantations, prepared to issue a bond to finance clearing pristine rain forest in Papua, Indonesia, the HSBC bank involved in the bond issue asked RSPO to investigate charges that development on Noble's concession was about to violate RSPO standards. As a result, Noble's spokesperson announced work on Papua's plantations was on hold while sustainable analysis was pending. Other banks also have begun to require independent verification that palm oil borrowers comply with no deforestation, no peat, and no exploitation policies.

In the United States, the Ceres sustainability organization issued an "Engage the Chain" report to alert investors to the environmental and social threats posed by companies that rely on palm oil and other commodity suppliers.

Negatives associated with palm oil create a search for alternatives. But when the Ecover cleaning company produced a new laundry liquid using oil from genetically modified algae, customers refused to buy it. In the UAE, experiments show a species of alga that grows in fresh and salt water naturally produces the fatty palmitic acid found in palm oil. The University of Bath is experimenting with a yeast that has properties similar to palm oil that can grow in municipal, supermarket, or agricultural waste rather than on land. To date, however, substitutes, including rapeseed and coconut oil, cannot compete with less expensive palm oil that sells from $500 to $1,200 a ton, unless customers begin to recognize the non-price benefits of avoiding palm oil.

When consumers turn around a product and spot palm oil as an ingredient, what might they do?

(Also see the earlier post, "Long Supply Lines Foster Abuses").

Dump the Dump

You can feel superior to those who throw plastic bottles into the ocean, flip lithium batteries into the trash, and buy new shoes instead of having a cobbler replace worn heels. But a close look at recycling finds even this "solution" has problems awaiting solutions.

     Making it easier for soda consumers to recycle plastic bottles or providing batteries with electronic tags to help pull them out of the ordinary disposal process still sends these bottles and batteries to a waste plant. The problem of disposing of the heavy lithium-ion batteries that wear out in the growing fleet of electric cars is a major matter of concern to these auto makers as well.  Waste plants, such as the Integrated Waste Management Facility at Bukit Nanas in Malaysia, boast about converting waste to electricity, but they downplay the cancer and other toxic disease emissions these plants produce. And what about the average annual rate of 300 fires at waste and recycling plants in the United Kingdom?

     In a recycling industry where price to cost margins are small, there is little incentive to monitor air quality frequently, purchase sprinklers and other expensive fire prevention equipment, keep from stacking recycled materials too high and too close together, provide employees with protective gear, or penalize and shut down illegal waste sites.

     "Repair rather than replace" has a nice ring to it, but when it is less expensive to buy new shoes or a small appliance than to have old ones repaired or even find someone who can do the job, those options aren't considered.

     Knee jerk solutions aren't always solutions. Substituting degradable paper bags and packaging for plastic that requires fossil fuel to produce and years to disappear can deplete forests. Reducing the amount of gasoline cars use by adding 10% ethanol from corn requires more electricity and might mean some people go hungry.

     When I was having a chair reupholstered, I also asked the man I called to do the repairs how much it would cost to recover a sofa chewed by the cat. He told me, "$600." I said something like, "I've seen new sofas advertised for less." He asked how old my sofa was, and I guessed about 60 years. He told me I wouldn't find anything like its interior materials and construction on the market today and that he's recovered furniture for people who go to yard sales looking for old furniture they can buy cheap, because they know the insides of these old pieces are worth the cost of upholstering them.

     Every time we are walking to the trash to throw something out, maybe we should slow down and ask ourselves: what could I do with this, who could use this, why did I buy this in the first place?

   

What Does North Korea's Kim Jong-un Fear?

On February 13, 2017, Kim Jong-nam's assassination with a banned VX nerve agent in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where North Korean nationals have visa free travel, brought to light more information about both North Korea's so-called hermit kingdom and China.

Kim Jong-un, 33, who inherited leadership of North Korea after the death of his father, Kim Jong-Il, was not the first choice for succession. That honor was to go to Kim Jong-nam, 45, until bad publicity followed his 2001 arrest while using a fake passport to sneak into Japan, allegedly to visit Disneyland. New information in 2018 claimed Kim Jong Il and his other son, North Korea's current leader, Kim Jong-un, tried unsuccessfully to visit the West using fake names and Brazilian passports in the 1990s.

Although Kim Jong-nam was the illegitimate son of Kim Jong-Il and Sung Hae-rim, the South Korean-born actress murdered under suspicious circumstances in Moscow in 2002, he grew up with all the advantages of an heir and attended school in Europe, where he was susceptible to capitalist teachings and playboy womanizing. A bloody shootout with Kim Jong-nam's bodyguards failed to kill him in 2011, but it showed Kim Jong-un considered his half brother a threat to his position.

When Beijing became Jong-nam's protector, Kim Jong-un also seemed to have his suspicions about China, supposedly North Korea's closest ally. Back in December, 2013, Jong-un ordered the arrest and execution of his uncle and close adviser, Jang Song-thaek, who was considered North Korea's liaison representative with China.

 Despite reports that Kim Jong-nam was trying to defect to the EU, US, or South Korea, did Peking see Jong-nam as a possible hereditary backup in case China wanted to stage a North Korean takeover? At the time of his assassination in the Malaysian International Airport, Jong-nam was separated from his bodyguards, and he was en route to Macau, the "Las Vegas of Asia" and former Portuguese territory that became China's autonomous Special Administrative Region for at least 50 years beginning in 1999.

When Malaysian police began looking into possible North Korean embassy and airline personnel involvement in Jong-nam's assassination, North Korea prevented Malaysian citizens from returning home.

Future Career Opportunities

For youngsters around the world, where they will work or launch a business seems many years away. Yet, thinking about what factors a country needs to offer employees and employers can begin at any age. Forbes magazine (December 21, 2016) helped the process of identifying "Best Countries for Business" by ranking 139 countries on a composite of factors including: taxes, innovation, technology, regulations, corruption, property rights, investor protection, per capita income, and trade balance. Other factors to consider might be: infrastructure; political stability; threat of terrorism; human rights of men, women, and children; and health conditions.

     The Forbes ranking placed Sweden first and Chad last. At forbes.com/best-countries-for-business/list/, there is a brief evaluation of the business climate in each of the 139 counties listed. You can find out why a negative trade balance, regulations, government intervention in the housing and health insurance markets, budget deficits, and modest growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) positioned the United States 23rd among countries best for business.

     Looking for future opportunities, I paid special attention to the 26 countries with economic GDP growth of 5% of more. Admittedly, countries with less developed economies may be able to show the greatest growth compared to countries with more developed economies, such as the US with 2.6% growth. Nonetheless, growth is an important factor to consider.

Best for Business                                         GDP growth
     Ranking

     4                         Ireland                             26.3%
    130                       Ethiopia                           10.2%
    106                       Cote d' Ivoire                     8.5%
     85                       India                                  7.6%
    134                      Laos                                   7.6%
      97                      Dominican Republic            7.0%
    122                      Tanzania                             7.0%
    123                      Cambodia                           7.0%
     78                       Rwanda                              6.9%
    102                      China                                 6.9%
    133                     Dem. Republic of Congo      6.9%
    117                     Bangladesh                          6.8%
     98                      Vietnam                              6.7%
    113                     Mozambique                       6.6%
     81                      Senegal                               6.5%
     30                      Malta                                  6.2%
   109                      Mali                                   6.0%
   111                      Tajikistan                            6.0%
     89                      Philippines                         5.9%
    59                       Panama                              5.8%
  128                      Cameroon                           5.8%
  105                      Kenya                                 5.6%
    63                     Namibia                               5.3%
    94                     Bhutan                                 5.2%
    44                     Malaysia                              5.0%
  100                     Benin                                   5.0%

Of these 26 countries, almost half are in Africa. Youngsters might keep their eyes on what these countries do to remedy the problems identified in their Forbes descriptions, since African countries might offer the best opportunities in the future.

Let There Be Environmentally Friendly Light

An estimated 1.3 billion people live without electricity in the so-called off-grid world. Even in countries that are moving from low-income to middle-income status, such as India, Ghana, Pakistan, and Vietnam, Bill Gates has observed that there are pockets of poverty that have no electricity. Unless families can purchase an expensive and heavy lead storage battery that needs to be carried to and recharged at a shop all day, going outside after dark is dangerous, indoor kerosene lamps release toxic fumes, and children can barely read or do homework by candlelight.

     Around the world, individuals, non-profit organizations, and for-profit companies are working on solar solutions that provide electricity without increasing greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

     Thanks to startup funds from Pepsi, the Zayed Future Energy Prize, and other sources, Philippines-based Liter of Light is putting solar-powered lights in thousands of low-income homes in the Philippines, Colombia, Malaysia, and Mexico. Liter for Light is a project run by the non-governmental-organization, My Shelter Foundation, founded by social entrepreneur and actor IllacDiaz. While studying in the US at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Diaz discovered an invention by Brazilian mechanic, Alfredo Moser. Moser had used sunlight on water in a plastic bottle (including some bleach to prevent algae growth) to emit light from a ceiling "bulb" during the day. At night, light was emitted from a plastic water bottle holding LEDs wired to a little solar panel that had been exposed to sun for three to four hours during the day.

     M-Kopa Solar is the Kenya-based "pay-as-you-go" commercial energy supplier for 280,000 homes in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that lack electricity connections. Customers buy a $30 solar system that they operate with credits for use purchased in 50 cent increments. Of the $51 million
 M-Kopa Solar raised in 2010, London-based Generation Investment Management invested $19 million. Debt and other investments accounted for the rest.

     Solar Home System is a project developed by South Korean, Akas Kim, in order to install a rooftop solar panel that can light homes in Cambodia for four hours. Families combine their incomes to make an initial payment of $200 and another $350 in monthly installments.

     South Korea's 2007 Social Enterprise Promotion Act is worth studying by other countries. By providing work spaces, mentoring, and government and private funding from companies such as Samsung and Hyundai, the Act backs startups that have a social purpose.

(An earlier post, "Don't Study by the Fire," mentions a backpack that has a solar powered light.)

   

Australian Report Links Indonesian Pilots to Islamic Militants

A recent Australian report about Indonesian pilots with ISIS ties raises questions about a possible relationship to the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in March, 2014.
(See earlier post, "Who Needs International Expertise?")

     According to the Australian report, Ridwan Agustin was a proud Indonesian pilot who flew AirAsia flights to Hong Kong and Singapore prior to September, 2014. Thereafter, he changed his name to Ridwan Ahmad Indonesty and began expressing support for ISIS. AirAsia stated the company no longer employed Ridwan Agustin and his wife, Diah Suci Wulandari, a flight attendant, but refused to provide details of the flight routes they flew.

      By March, 2015, the Australian Federal Police reported Ridwan listed his location as Raqqa, Syria. Since 2012, an estimated 500 people have traveled from Indonesia to the Middle East, including Iraq and Syria, to join terrorist groups estimated to now total 800 ISIS radicals in Indonesia. A weekly report for March 3-10, 2015 from the National Counter Terrorism Center mentioned Malaysians and Indonesians had formed a joint weapons training unit, Majmu'ah al'Arkhabiliy, commanded by ISIS in Raqqa, Syria.

     Access to and knowledge of aviation security and safety makes radicalized pilots a serious threat. Some 300 pilots, flight attendants, flight instructors, radar and air traffic controllers, and ground crew from Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, Switzerland, Germany, France, the Middle East, UK, and USA exchange information on Instagram and Facebook.

     There are five known ISIS recruiting centers in Indonesia, one of which was responsible for killing 202 people in the 2002 Bali bombing. Another attack in Bali occurred in 2005. Reports are pending for a crash by AirAsia Airbus 320 en route to Singapore that killed 155 plus the crew in December, 2014 and for an Indonesian military airplane crash in July, 2015 that killed at least 135.

     An Indonesian military-trained pilot, Tommy Hendratno (also known as Tomi Aby Alfatih), who had known connections to Ridwan Agustin and who expressed concern for the plight of Muslims and support for ISIS, flew private charter and commercial flights to Bali, Malaysia, and Dubai for Premiair before he quit the company on June 1, 2015. He had attended three training sessions (the last one in February, 2015) in the US at Flight Safety International in St. Louis, Missouri.

   

   

Summer Project: Adopt a Country

Your country could be a big one, like China or Russia, that is always in the news or a small one, like Papua New Guinea, that you didn't know existed. Whatever country you choose, there are resources to help you explore your choice (See some suggested sources of country information in the earlier post, "See the World.") I took my own advice and decided to learn about Malaysia. Unfortunately, I only got as far as looking at a map and deciding Malaysia must have a complicated history, It shares the slim Malay Peninsula with three other countries: Burma (Myanmar), Thailand, and Singapore, and the nearby mountainous Borneo island with Brunei and Indonesia.

     Those who plan to put more effort in learning about a country can begin their project by buying a scrapbook or notebook and labeling pages with titles, such as "Maps," "Government leaders," "Sports," "Key industries," "Agricultural products," and so forth.

     On the first page, "Maps," include a map of your country and a world map with an arrow pointing to it and to your country. (For sources of maps and other information about maps, see the earlier blog post, "You Are Here.") When I had an Atlas out to look for Malaysia, I also decided to see where Iran's secret nuclear facilities probably were located. It was easy to spot the long swath of Zagros Mountains that run along Iran's western border. Eye-in-the-sky satellites could know where to look for activity indicating the construction of new facilities that violated its nuclear agreement with UN Security Council members and the EU.

     Your second page could be labeled, "Flag," Find a colored picture of your country's flag in a World Almanac at the library or elsewhere. Countries put a lot of thought into their flags, because they symbolize a country's important characteristics. Saudi Arabia's flag is almost all green, because the Muslim faith is important to its people and green is the color associated with Mohammed, founder of the Muslim religion. South Africa's flag is much more complicated than Saudi Arabia's. For example, it has red and black for the struggle its population had for freedom and gold for a source of its wealth. (More information about flags is in the earlier blog post, "A Salute to Flags.")

     On a page titled, "Population," list how many people live in your adopted country. How does the size of this population compare to the population of your home country? Is it two times larger or less than a tenth the size of your country? Also include pictures of your country's government leaders and its people. List names of people in your adopted country that may be very different from those of your classmates (Some sources of people and place pictures are listed in the earlier blog posts, "Picture the World" and "Getting to Know You.")

     A page for "Places" is a good one for photos of cities, especially the country's capital. Photos also will show mountains or flat land, snow or beaches, rivers and farms, how people live in cities, and what sports they play. If you know relatives or friends will be visiting your adopted country, remind them to send you postcards to include in your scrapbook.

     Not every country has the same animals that live where you do, so be sure to have a page labeled, "Animals." If you go to a zoo, see if you can find an animal whose native home is your adopted country. The zoo's brochure may have a photo of this animal that you can add to your scrapbook.

     Your interests may lead you to look into your country's music: folk songs and classical composers, current tunes and performers, various instruments.

     What products does your adopted country produce, minerals does it mine, and crops does it grow? Find photos.

     As a student, you will be interested in "Education."Do all children attend the same types of schools? What do they study at what ages? A new book, Playgrounds, shows what recess looks like in some countries (See the earlier blog post, "Recess Differs Around the World.")

     Subjects such as "Food," "Religion," and "Language" could all have separate pages. You may be lucky to find foreign money and stamps from your adopted country, an interesting book about your country, a souvenir from an Olympic or World Cup games held in your country, or a doll dressed in native garb. Recently, when the founder of my granddaughter's 4H club spoke at a meeting, she told how she had 80 dolls from the 80 countries she and her husband had visited.

     The best thing about filling a scrapbook or notebook with information about an adopted country is beginning to think about traveling there some day.

Idea Transfer

French artist, Junior Fritz Jacquet, used Japanese origami-like folds to create expressive faces out of toilet paper rolls, according to a report in thisiscolossal.com. Despite criticism, globalization presents the opportunity to discover something, like a new art form, in one country that can be duplicated in another by an artist or

a school's art teachers. (See similar ideas in the earlier blog post, "It Takes A World to Raise a Child.")

Globalization fosters what Baptiste Barbot, a researcher at Yale's Child Study Center, calls the "synergistic interaction" of factors that permit a person to spot associations, take risks, and entertain alternative thoughts. In short, globalization might be considered a creative shortcut that enables people around the world to think outside the box.The German company, ThyssenKrupp, for example, adapted the Japanese idea of propelling trains over tracks by magnets to propel multiple elevators up and down in magnet propelled, cable-free shafts.

By signing up for free at trendwatching.com, subscribers, without leaving home, can scan the world for ideas that can be used where they live. The following examples from recent trendwatching reports provide an idea of the valuable information this site provides:

• Seeing how consumers respond to tender loving care, a French cafe began giving polite patrons a discount
• Ready made, microwavable food is as popular in Malaysia as in Manhattan
• Indonesian temporary tatoos are printed in eco-friendly ink and last three to four days
• Japan's solar lanterns in a variety of designs can light up the darkness where there is no electricity, such as on a camping trip
• Korea's Samsung NX Mini camera and a metal clamp that holds a mobile phone are innovations that facilitate group selfies, called "wefies" or "massfies"
• In Romania, people could submit a photo of racist graffiti on a building and Unilever would send a team that used its Cif brand of cleaning products to remove it
• By using an app to rate the temperature in a building or on a public vehicle, occupants and passengers can create an aggregate measure that enables CrowdComfort to adjust the thermostat to please the majority
• In Singapore, customers can set a smartphone app for a McDonald's Surprise Alarm that gives them a special deal every time their alarm goes off
•  A Brazilian publisher prints stories and poems in the pockets of jeans sold by FreeSurf
• No matter where someone is in Mexico, he or she can receive a government warning of an earthquake on a small Alerta Sismica Grillo, crowdfunded by the Fondeadora platform
• In India, The Good Road campaign developed a smart helmet with sensors that tell your motorcycle to start. Take off your helmet and your motorcycle's engine turns off.
• Plastic Coca-Cola bottles in Vietnam reduce pollution, because they come with 16 different caps that convert empties into new uses, such as squirt guns, pencil sharpeners, and soap dispensers.

Teachers also have an opportunity to go to the site, ePals.com, to find a classroom somewhere in the world that would like to participate in a group project that could create something neither classroom would have created working alone.

Map Gazing

Before the internet, classrooms often had a set of encyclopedias. One of my fifth grade classmates decided he would read all 15 volumes of the Britannica Jr. that our room had. He started at the end. Not only did the last volume cover subjects that began with "WXYZ," but it also contained an atlas. He started looking at maps and never got any further.

     I was reminded of how interesting he found maps, when I read about a new book, Mapping It Out. One of the maps included in this book is a map of Africa that I used to hang in my classroom. To illustrate the size of Africa, this map fits China, the United States, Europe, India, and Japan inside the continent. This kind of presentation is very useful, since transferring a global world to a flat page distorts the size of countries north and south of the equator (See the earlier post, "You Are Here.").

     Having an Atlas, or a shower curtain with a map printed on it, is especially helpful when countries, islands, cities, mountains, and bodies of water are in the news. Hearing that Narendra Modi from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) became India's Prime Minister sent me to an Atlas, when I heard he was born in Ahmedabad, a coastal city in the western Indian state of Gujarat, south of Pakistan. As host to some World Cup soccer games in 2014, the city of Recife shifted our focus from the Amazon in the west to Brazil's eastern tip on the Atlantic Ocean. When hearing that Stephen Hung ordered $20 million dollars worth of Rolls Royces (30 cars) to transport visitors staying at his Louis XIII resort in Macau, the question arose: Where is Macau? Unfortunately, invasions, such as Russia's into Ukraine, and disasters, such as the downing of Malaysian Flight MH17 and the disappearance of Malaysian Flight 370 and the finding of its wreckage on the island of Reunion (See the earlier post, "Who Needs International Expertise?"), cause us to visit the border of Ukraine and Russia and to contemplate the vastness of the Indian Ocean.

     Children can look at maps to pick out shapes (See the earlier post, "How the World Shapes Up."), to find where people practice different religions (See the earlier post, "Respect the Faith."), to have an international scavenger hunt (See the earlier post, "Games Children Play."), and to study currents, mountain elevations, count time zones, and plan where they want to visit and work (See the earlier posts, "See the World" and "What Do You Want to Be?"). Also, check out Maps4Kids.com, which has a wide variety of activities associated with maps.
 

Who Needs International Expertise?

Public health and the hunt for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which disappeared March 8, 2014, (and the later search for Air Asia Flight 8501, which crashed into the Java Sea on December 28, 2014) demonstrate how global problems require cooperation of experts in a wide variety of disciplines.

     Not only does disease involve those versed in the biological complexity of the causes, cures, and prevention of a multi-country Ebola, flu, or Zika virus epidemics, but it also requires precautions by those involved in all aspects of transportation. Urban design and environmental science also can have an impact on how diseases are transmitted throughout the world.


      In the case of Flight 370's disappearance, lack of coordination between countries confused the search effort for at least three days when 12 countries were flying nearly 40 planes and navigating as many ships in an area east and west of Malaysia. When military and civilian personnel began sharing speculations and data about radar soundings, satellite photos, and debris sightings, the search area shifted to 1500 miles off the west coast of Australia and then an area to the northeast that was closer to Australia and in a less turbulent spot in the Indian Ocean.

Even with 26 countries involved in the search, as of September, 2014, there was still no trace of the downed plane. It was not until July, 2015 that the first wreckage from Malaysia Flight 370 turned up on the French territory of Reunion Island, off the east coast of Africa east of Madagascar. Another possible piece of the lost plane was found between Madagascar and Mozambique in March, 2016. (Debris from the tsunami that hit Japan in 2011 continued to reach Alaska four years later in 2015.) Since Madagascar is far west of the area near Australia, where the plane was thought to go down, weather and ocean current experts will help pin point where the plane might have run out of fuel. Even before the plane has been located, underwater experts have joined the mission to map the mountainous ocean floor. Despite this massive international search, after nearly three years the airplane had not been found and the search was discontinued on January 17, 2017.

The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 also has led to trials of new ways to track aircraft flying over ocean expanses. In a report submitted to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a test of the global satellite communication system developed by UK firm, Inmarsat, showed it was possible for aircraft flying over oceanic airspace to report position, speed, altitude, and direction every 14 minutes at a minimal or neutral cost.

The number of people and variety of disciplines required to solve a crisis brought on by disease or a plane crash illustrates how tasks involving international cooperation are not limited to diplomats. To see how many kinds of research can involve an international effort, check out the later post, "Calling All Space Sleuths."

Introduction

Globalization came as a shock to the U.S. generation that won World War II and even to the Baby Boomers who followed. The current generation is different. International elements surround today's children from birth. Their first toys have tags showing that they were made in China, Thailand, or Malaysia. As youngsters, they may have attended Montessori schools that use methods developed by an Italian doctor or, under the influence of Japanese musician, Shinichi Suzuki, been gently nurtured to play an instrument. Long before leaving for junior years abroad, students expect to share classrooms and playgrounds with children whose heritages are Mexican, Nigerian, and Korean. Young people are growing up without a competitive edge in a world where democracy is not a shared goal. Their families work for multinational firms, complain about jobs outsourced to foreign companies, vacation where exchange rates provide the best value, or travel only as far as the price of Middle Eastern oil permits.

     National boundaries fail to shield today's children from the rest of the world's languages, religions, and drug traffickiing. Back in 1939, when isolationists were determined to keep the United States out of World War II, Senator Arthur Vandenberg thanked God for the protection of "two insulating oceans." Nowadays, neither the Atlantic nor the Pacific prevents global communication and terrorism from bringing the wide world home. When one billion people are international travelers every year, oceans no longer insulate anyone from tuberculosis or mosquito-borne diseases like the Zika virus. Neither can lines on a map limit where today's young people will work, the cultures they will share, nor the problems they will solve.

     Globalization requires an international, interconnected perspective. Children who have lived outside the country where they were born already may possess the cosmopolitan savvy to feel comfortable wherever they are plopped down in the world. But stay-at-home kids need not cede to their well traveled cohorts the feeling of being comfortable with foreign cultures, knowledge of world geography, the will to deal with environmental challenges, or decisions about war and peace. Teachers and parents now have access to resources at home and on the Internet that enable them to help young people acquire both a taste for what the world has to offer and confidence that they can contribute something to the world.

     My granddaughter's interest in Italy began with mythology. She knows everything about chimeras. These three-part lion, goat, and serpent creatures terrorized Asia Minor until a hero riding on Pegasus killed one. When my granddaughter learned there was a bronze chimera statue in Florence, that city became her dream destination. Although she has yet to travel outside the United States, she took me directly to a book store's language section and showed me the Italian workbook and interactive CD-ROM she wanted for her birthday. Mythology, art, and language combined to widen my granddaughter's view of the world. In a similar way, young athletes might develop their international perspective after watching the Olympics in London this summer. For other children, a foreign coin, a "Made in Bangladesh" clothing label, or a musical rainstick could stimulate interest in their world. This global awareness is what my blog is designed to foster.