Showing posts with label North Korea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Korea. Show all posts
Friday, August 7, 2020
What Can Be Learned about North Korea: Defectors, COVID, Accidents
North Korea's Chairman, Kim Jong-un, surfaced on September 25, 2020, to send a letter to South Korean President Moon Jae-in's Blue House apologizing for the North Korean troops who killed an official from South Korea's Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries on Septemebr 22. North Korea later claimed the official crossed North Korea's maritime border south of the Yeonpyeong islands it controls in order to defect to the north. This explanation occurred shortly before reports began to claim Jo Song Gil, North Korea's acting ambassador to Italy, who disappeared with his wife in Rome in November, 2018, had been living in South Korea since July, 2019. A North Korean diplomat in London, Thae Jong ho, and his family had defected to South Korea in 2016.
Originally, Chairman Kim expressed condolences that the incident involving the death of the South Korean official had occurred at a time when both countries were suffering from COVID-19. On October 3, after President Trump was found to have COVID-19, Chairman Kim also expressed his wish that the president would recover.
Commercial satellite imaging has shown the Yongbyon area, where North Korea's Nuclear Scientific Research Center is located, suffered severe damage from typhoons in September, 2020. The breach of a dam caused the lake that provides a steady water level for cooling when reactors are operating, which they are not now, dried up. Elsewhere, flooding in the area damaged grain in the country's already suffering economy. Grain is now drying on every available surface.
At the UN in September, 2020, North Korea announced it is satisfied with the strength of its nuclear deterrent and intends to concentrate on economic development. A party conference is planned for January, 2021, in order to develop a new 5-year economic plan. Sanctions imposed to block North Korea's nuclear and missile program remain in place, although they have not been very effective.
As usual, reports direct from North Korea, where citizens are afraid to talk to reporters, were not forthcoming immediately after neighboring countries announded North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, was in a coma on August 25, 2020, and observers saw explosions across China's border at Changbai on August 3, 2020.
Since the sister of Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, who was anticipated to assume interim North Korean national and international duties while her brother was in a coma, had not been seen in public since July 27, 2020, some suggested a power struggle for leadership might be in progress. This no longer seemed the case, when Kim Yo Jong was seen with her brother, Kim Jong Un, inspecting the flooded area in Yongbyon in September.
The August explosion in North Korea occurred in the Tapsong neighborhood of Hyesan City on North Korea's eastern border with China. These explosions caused articles to reference a July, 2020, train fire in Sinuiju on North Korea's western border with China. Firefighters were unable to contain the fire, because extinguishers at the train station were empty.
In the process of describing how the explosion began with a gasoline fire and spread to LPG storage cylinders, we learned that homes in Hyesan each rely on their own stored gasoline or LPG.
Finally, besides reporting on North Korea from South Korean and official Chinese sources, initial reports of the explosion revealed there are Chinese activists who help those trying to escape from North Korea.
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Punishment for Human Rights' Abuses
Like two aspirins for those whose heads ache, because they feel powerless to do anything about unspeakable human rights' violations, the concept of Magnitsky laws is a cure. These laws impact the individuals and organizations responsible for inhuman abuses, who often seem to escape prosecution, to accummulate fortunes by leveraging their high-level contacts and to laundeer and stash their wealth in safe havens throughout the world.
Countries, including the US, UK, Canada, the Baltics and members of the European Union, enact a version of the Magnitsky law to freeze accounts of those responsible for human rights' abuses, thereby preventing them from financing their anticipated luxurious lifestyles.
While the laudible aim of Magnitsky laws and fate of Sergei Magnitsky are well known, some details are disputed. Mr. Magnitsky, a 37-year-old tax expert, sometimes represented as an attorney, worked for Bill Browder's London-based Hermitage Capital Management investment firm. When Browder's Russian investments in state-owned corporations, especially Gazprom, prospered, he appears to have involved Magnitsky in a scheme to limit his tax liability by claiming a discount for employing disabled workers firms did not employ.
In connection with an investigation two Moscow police officers made into Broder's alleged $230 million tax fraud case, Magnitsky ended up in a Russian prison, where a doctor discovered he needed pancreatic surgery he never received. Magnitsky died in prison on November 16, 2009. Mr. Browder effectively tells the story that the two police officers who initiated the tax fraud investigation were responsible for Magnitsky's death.
In any case, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) maintains a list of Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) sanctioned under various laws, including the Global Magnitsky Act of 2012. On Friday, August 7, 2020, the OFAC list added 11 Hong Kong officials for undermining autonomy guarantees and restricting freedom of expression or assembly.
In mid-July, 2020, the UK's Global Human Rights Sanctions Regulations imposed asset freezes and travel bans on:
- 25 Russian officials implicated in Magnitsky's death
- 20 senion Saudi intelligence officials allegedly involved in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi
- 2 Myanmar generals connected to ethnic Rohingya autrocities
- 2 North Korean organizations that run the concentration camps for political prisoners
The UK's sanctions regulations provide review provisions.
Saturday, March 21, 2020
North Korea Taps into the Power of Distraction
Magicians and medical professionals use distraction. Look over there, and while your attention is diverted, something unusual happens or a shot is administered. Distractions are useful, but, beware, they also can be dangerous. In a school lunchroom, one student calls attention to someone coming in the door; an accomplice steals a cookie or two.
In international relations, countries often need to maintain focus on more than one problem. In my eBook, A Dangerous Mix of Washington Outsiders, I imagined an espionage plot occurring while the U.S. was celebrating the first budget surplus in 28 years, impeaching President Clinton, and preparing for the 2000 elections. My plot is imaginary, but North Korea's recent missile launches are real. Dealing with the coronavirus cannot be allowed to distract world attention from North Korea sending missiles into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone three times during the month of March, 2020. Because of COVID-19, the Olympic games, scheduled to be played in Tokyo this summer, already have been moved to July, 2021. Canceling them altogether may be necessary, it there is a danger athletes might be killed by a wayward North Korean missile.
North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, who failed to see any progress on a nuclear deal with the U.S. in 2019, resumed missile testing shortly after 700 legislators met for the country's Supreme People's Assembly. The size of the meeting also indicates North Korea, which had imposed a national lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19, is no longer concerned about large congregations.
What U.S. attention is focused on Korea is devoted to figuring out how to share the cost of military defense spending with South Korea and the virus-related cancellation of joint U.S.-South Korean military drills. Those preoccupations also avoid concern, not only about North Korea's missile tests, but also about the World War II reparation claims that undermine cooperation between U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan. The lack of Russian and Chinese sanctions needed to control North Korea's nuclear ambitions also is overlooked.
At stake is more than a couple of missing cookies.
In international relations, countries often need to maintain focus on more than one problem. In my eBook, A Dangerous Mix of Washington Outsiders, I imagined an espionage plot occurring while the U.S. was celebrating the first budget surplus in 28 years, impeaching President Clinton, and preparing for the 2000 elections. My plot is imaginary, but North Korea's recent missile launches are real. Dealing with the coronavirus cannot be allowed to distract world attention from North Korea sending missiles into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone three times during the month of March, 2020. Because of COVID-19, the Olympic games, scheduled to be played in Tokyo this summer, already have been moved to July, 2021. Canceling them altogether may be necessary, it there is a danger athletes might be killed by a wayward North Korean missile.
North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, who failed to see any progress on a nuclear deal with the U.S. in 2019, resumed missile testing shortly after 700 legislators met for the country's Supreme People's Assembly. The size of the meeting also indicates North Korea, which had imposed a national lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19, is no longer concerned about large congregations.
What U.S. attention is focused on Korea is devoted to figuring out how to share the cost of military defense spending with South Korea and the virus-related cancellation of joint U.S.-South Korean military drills. Those preoccupations also avoid concern, not only about North Korea's missile tests, but also about the World War II reparation claims that undermine cooperation between U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan. The lack of Russian and Chinese sanctions needed to control North Korea's nuclear ambitions also is overlooked.
At stake is more than a couple of missing cookies.
Sunday, March 8, 2020
Threats to Olympic Sites
Insurance companies feared financial losses if the coronavirus caused the cancellation of this summer's 2020 Olympic Games in Toyota. As it turned out, the games were rescheduled for July, 2021. Violence, including World War II, that marred the noble purpose of the games in the past, could again be a factor next year, if North Korea continues to launch missiles toward Japan.
Environmental threats from pollution and climate change also have had an impact on the Olympics. Debris in the waters off Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, before the 2016 summer Olympics worried open-water swimmers and skippers in boating events. High winds delayed skiing events and kept spectators off the slopes at the 2018 winter games in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Despite efforts to switch away from fossil fuels and plant trees to control the sand and dirt blown south from the Gobi Desert, athletes at the 2022 winter Olympics in China could face a breathing, as well as a competitive, challenge at events in Yanqing and Chongli, north of Beijing. During winter, heating homes and factories increases pollution in an area that suffers year round. Smog is likely to obscure views from the 4-story tower built in Yanqing to give visitors to the Olympics a glimpse of the Great Wall of China.
Since the fur from four goats is needed to respond to the fashion industry's demand for one cashmere sweater, grazing goats turned the Mongolian steppes north of China into a desert no longer capable of protecting Beijing from wind-blown sand. To stabilize top soil, the government removed up to 700,000 villagers in northern China from land designated for planting trees. However, at the same time climate change reduced rainfall in arid areas, many non-native trees planted in China required more water and worsened water shortages. An attempt to plant shrubs needing less water is underway. In any case, it is hard to know if China's new trees and shrubs will be ready to shield 2022's Olympic athletes from the Gobi Desert's blowing sand. According to Congbin Fu, the director of the Institute for Climate and Global Change Research at Nanjing University, growing forests is a long-term process that "can take several decades or even 100 years."
Environmental threats from pollution and climate change also have had an impact on the Olympics. Debris in the waters off Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, before the 2016 summer Olympics worried open-water swimmers and skippers in boating events. High winds delayed skiing events and kept spectators off the slopes at the 2018 winter games in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Despite efforts to switch away from fossil fuels and plant trees to control the sand and dirt blown south from the Gobi Desert, athletes at the 2022 winter Olympics in China could face a breathing, as well as a competitive, challenge at events in Yanqing and Chongli, north of Beijing. During winter, heating homes and factories increases pollution in an area that suffers year round. Smog is likely to obscure views from the 4-story tower built in Yanqing to give visitors to the Olympics a glimpse of the Great Wall of China.
Since the fur from four goats is needed to respond to the fashion industry's demand for one cashmere sweater, grazing goats turned the Mongolian steppes north of China into a desert no longer capable of protecting Beijing from wind-blown sand. To stabilize top soil, the government removed up to 700,000 villagers in northern China from land designated for planting trees. However, at the same time climate change reduced rainfall in arid areas, many non-native trees planted in China required more water and worsened water shortages. An attempt to plant shrubs needing less water is underway. In any case, it is hard to know if China's new trees and shrubs will be ready to shield 2022's Olympic athletes from the Gobi Desert's blowing sand. According to Congbin Fu, the director of the Institute for Climate and Global Change Research at Nanjing University, growing forests is a long-term process that "can take several decades or even 100 years."
Monday, February 10, 2020
What North Korea Can Learn from the Oscars
Censorship destroys creativity.
At the Academy Awards ceremony in the United States on February 9, 2020, South Korea's film, Parasite, won Best Picture of 2019. Filmed in black and white with sub-titles U.S. movie audiences had to read as they watched the movie. Yet Parasite bested eight English-speaking films in color. The film also won Best Original Screenplay. Bong Joon Ho, who was one of the screenplay's writers, also won Best Director. Although the wife of North Korea's Kim Jong Un is a singer, she was never considered as one of the possible voices chosen to sing, in her native tongue, the nominated song from Frozen at the Academy Awards.
Nor can China brag about any international film accolades. In 2016 China's wealthy Danan Wanda Group constructed an $8 billion complex to attract international movie-makers to the coastal city of Qingdao. Despite offering generous financial incentives, the project is not a success. Censorship by China's State Administration of Press Publications, Radio, Film and Television proved to be incompatible with the creative process.
South Korea offers North Korea a way to escape the Chinese film censorship trap. Missiles and nuclear weapons attract international attention, but so does a blockbuster film. North Korea is lucky to have a prize-winning movie-making community of educators available next door. Those trouble-making North Koreans locked away in the country's concentration camps may be just the creative talent that could net Kim Jong Un and his wife tickets to an Academy Awards celebration and positive international attention for North Korea.
At the Academy Awards ceremony in the United States on February 9, 2020, South Korea's film, Parasite, won Best Picture of 2019. Filmed in black and white with sub-titles U.S. movie audiences had to read as they watched the movie. Yet Parasite bested eight English-speaking films in color. The film also won Best Original Screenplay. Bong Joon Ho, who was one of the screenplay's writers, also won Best Director. Although the wife of North Korea's Kim Jong Un is a singer, she was never considered as one of the possible voices chosen to sing, in her native tongue, the nominated song from Frozen at the Academy Awards.
Nor can China brag about any international film accolades. In 2016 China's wealthy Danan Wanda Group constructed an $8 billion complex to attract international movie-makers to the coastal city of Qingdao. Despite offering generous financial incentives, the project is not a success. Censorship by China's State Administration of Press Publications, Radio, Film and Television proved to be incompatible with the creative process.
South Korea offers North Korea a way to escape the Chinese film censorship trap. Missiles and nuclear weapons attract international attention, but so does a blockbuster film. North Korea is lucky to have a prize-winning movie-making community of educators available next door. Those trouble-making North Koreans locked away in the country's concentration camps may be just the creative talent that could net Kim Jong Un and his wife tickets to an Academy Awards celebration and positive international attention for North Korea.
Friday, March 15, 2019
Playgrounds Welcome March Basketball Madness
Now that he's an ex-President, Barack Obama welcomes his extra time to fill out March Madness brackets for the annual basketball tournament pitting 68 top U.S. college teams against each other. Former University of Pennsylvania stars welcome the chance to reminisce about years back when they were on an Ivy League basketball team that reached the Final Four. They remind each other how they were the tough recruits from the New York public leagues who recognized the teammate potential of a lanky lad from a Connecticut prep school.
March Madness also brings players to welcoming neighborhood basketball courts. The short Shark Tank entrepreneur, Daymon John, reports how he, by being the one who brought the ball, always was welcome to play in pick-up games. Surprisingly, North Korea's short President, Kim Jong-un, is a basketball fan who probably would welcome an invitation to a March Madness game.
There's even a semi-professional basketball team in Tibet, China. Willard "Bill" Johnson, a former MIT basketball coach and professional player in Iceland, Australia, and Cape Verde, coaches a team made up of nomad sheep and yak herders and Buddhist monks who were prepared to play in the Norlha Basketball Invitational in Gannan, part of China's Gansu province. Unfortunately, Beijing canceled the tournament, because local police voiced security concerns about controlling a large gathering of people during the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
One of Johnson's players, 6-foot, one-inch Dugya Bum was a school drop out who didn't quit smoking until basketball changed his life. His home now displays a framed photo of LeBron James. Basketball also transformed the difficult lives of Norlha's nomad women who became interested in trying new things, like yoga and meeting together to chat, once they too had a team.
The Olympic Creed claims "The most important thing about the Olympics is to take part." Around the world, in playgrounds and gyms everywhere, the most important thing may be getting to know each other by taking part in sports.
March Madness also brings players to welcoming neighborhood basketball courts. The short Shark Tank entrepreneur, Daymon John, reports how he, by being the one who brought the ball, always was welcome to play in pick-up games. Surprisingly, North Korea's short President, Kim Jong-un, is a basketball fan who probably would welcome an invitation to a March Madness game.
There's even a semi-professional basketball team in Tibet, China. Willard "Bill" Johnson, a former MIT basketball coach and professional player in Iceland, Australia, and Cape Verde, coaches a team made up of nomad sheep and yak herders and Buddhist monks who were prepared to play in the Norlha Basketball Invitational in Gannan, part of China's Gansu province. Unfortunately, Beijing canceled the tournament, because local police voiced security concerns about controlling a large gathering of people during the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
One of Johnson's players, 6-foot, one-inch Dugya Bum was a school drop out who didn't quit smoking until basketball changed his life. His home now displays a framed photo of LeBron James. Basketball also transformed the difficult lives of Norlha's nomad women who became interested in trying new things, like yoga and meeting together to chat, once they too had a team.
The Olympic Creed claims "The most important thing about the Olympics is to take part." Around the world, in playgrounds and gyms everywhere, the most important thing may be getting to know each other by taking part in sports.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
2018-2019 Struggle for Human Rights
No struggle for human rights around the world is ever complete. The record that I began in the earlier post, "Hope for the Future," needs to be updated with some positive and negative developments.
Archbishop Oscar Romero, who was murdered by a military death squad in 1980 because he spoke out for unions and poor peasant groups against the grip of prosperous coffee growers and capitalism in El Salvador, was declared a saint of the Catholic Church in 2018.
Vietnam released and exiled "Mother Mushroom," Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, who had been jailed for writing about the country's corruption and pollution.
Boko Haram continues to kill and kidnap innocent victims in Nigeria and the Cameroon.
North Korea has re-education camps for thousands, and China also holds Muslim Uighurs in camps because their religion is said to undermine peace and security. In March, 2019, Kazakhstan would demonstrate an effort to maintain good relations with its Chinese neighbor by arresting Serikzhan Bilash for supporting Uighurs detained in Xinjiang's camps.
Russia tried unsuccessfully to poison a spy in the UK in 2018, and it continues to hold political prisoners, such as Oleg Sentsov and Oleg and Alexei Navalny. In February, 2019, Russia would arrest Michael Calvey, a U.S financier, which is reminiscent of the expulsion of Browder, whose tax expert, sometimes called his lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, died in a Russian prison.
For criticizing the regime of King Salman and his son, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the Saudi Arabian journalist and US resident, Jamal Khashoggi, was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Turkey in October, 2018, but in the same month, a Turkish court released a US pastor, Andrew Brunson, who had been in prison there on false terrorism charges for two years.
Archbishop Oscar Romero, who was murdered by a military death squad in 1980 because he spoke out for unions and poor peasant groups against the grip of prosperous coffee growers and capitalism in El Salvador, was declared a saint of the Catholic Church in 2018.
Vietnam released and exiled "Mother Mushroom," Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, who had been jailed for writing about the country's corruption and pollution.
Boko Haram continues to kill and kidnap innocent victims in Nigeria and the Cameroon.
North Korea has re-education camps for thousands, and China also holds Muslim Uighurs in camps because their religion is said to undermine peace and security. In March, 2019, Kazakhstan would demonstrate an effort to maintain good relations with its Chinese neighbor by arresting Serikzhan Bilash for supporting Uighurs detained in Xinjiang's camps.
Russia tried unsuccessfully to poison a spy in the UK in 2018, and it continues to hold political prisoners, such as Oleg Sentsov and Oleg and Alexei Navalny. In February, 2019, Russia would arrest Michael Calvey, a U.S financier, which is reminiscent of the expulsion of Browder, whose tax expert, sometimes called his lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, died in a Russian prison.
For criticizing the regime of King Salman and his son, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the Saudi Arabian journalist and US resident, Jamal Khashoggi, was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Turkey in October, 2018, but in the same month, a Turkish court released a US pastor, Andrew Brunson, who had been in prison there on false terrorism charges for two years.
Saturday, July 14, 2018
Freedom: Love It, Don't Leave It
A big balloon provided an unwelcoming greeting to President Trump in the UK, and comics mocked the politically-ambitions wife of a former Zimbabwe President. Such actions are reminders of the civil liberties others all over the world do not enjoy.
North Korea and China deprive religious and free-thinking citizens in re-education camps. Beijing released Liu Xia, the widow of deceased Nobel peace poetry laureate, Liu Xiaobo, from house arrest on July 10, 2018. She was allowed to leave for exile in Germany, possibly to court good relations with a U.S. ally President Trump recently offended at a NATO summit. But back in Beijing, Chinese authorities stand ready to arrest Liu's younger brother, Liu Hui, if Liu Xia makes any statements China considers objectionable.
Beijing was concerned when Edward Leung, a Hong Kong proponent of independence from China, received 15% of the vote for a seat in the former British island's Legislative Council. Shortly after Leung received this minor vote of confidence, he was involved in what turned into a riot in 2016. Two years later, on June 11, 2018, he received a six-year sentence for his involvement in the uprising.
Charged with subversion, China sentenced Qin Yongmin, to a 13-year prison term on July 11, 2018. He also had been jailed earlier for his pro-democracy demands. Along with political prisoners, China continues to detain lawyers and other activists who dare to use Chinese laws to prevent abuses of power by government officials.
In Russia, Oleg Navalny still languishes in a penal colony for his association with the anti-corruption rallies of his brother, Alexei, who himself was re-arrested in September, 2018 two minutes after serving a 30-day jail sentence. Ukrainian film director, Oleg Sentsov, is starving on a hunger strike while serving a 20-year sentence in Siberia. His crime, objecting to Vladimir Putin's 2014 annexation of Crimea, an action for which Russia is being sanctioned.
North Korea and China deprive religious and free-thinking citizens in re-education camps. Beijing released Liu Xia, the widow of deceased Nobel peace poetry laureate, Liu Xiaobo, from house arrest on July 10, 2018. She was allowed to leave for exile in Germany, possibly to court good relations with a U.S. ally President Trump recently offended at a NATO summit. But back in Beijing, Chinese authorities stand ready to arrest Liu's younger brother, Liu Hui, if Liu Xia makes any statements China considers objectionable.
Beijing was concerned when Edward Leung, a Hong Kong proponent of independence from China, received 15% of the vote for a seat in the former British island's Legislative Council. Shortly after Leung received this minor vote of confidence, he was involved in what turned into a riot in 2016. Two years later, on June 11, 2018, he received a six-year sentence for his involvement in the uprising.
Charged with subversion, China sentenced Qin Yongmin, to a 13-year prison term on July 11, 2018. He also had been jailed earlier for his pro-democracy demands. Along with political prisoners, China continues to detain lawyers and other activists who dare to use Chinese laws to prevent abuses of power by government officials.
In Russia, Oleg Navalny still languishes in a penal colony for his association with the anti-corruption rallies of his brother, Alexei, who himself was re-arrested in September, 2018 two minutes after serving a 30-day jail sentence. Ukrainian film director, Oleg Sentsov, is starving on a hunger strike while serving a 20-year sentence in Siberia. His crime, objecting to Vladimir Putin's 2014 annexation of Crimea, an action for which Russia is being sanctioned.
Wednesday, June 6, 2018
China's Domestic Economic Belt
Less well known on the world stage than China's land and sea "One Belt, One Road" and "Maritime Silk Road" is China's Domestic Economic Belt along the Yangtze River from densely-populated and heavily-polluted Shanghai, west to the lake region around Wuhan (where COVID-19 originated), and still farther southwest to Chongqing, population over 30 million, larger than Shanghai and Beijing (home to OneSpace, China's solid-fueled commercial spacecraft industry, specializing in launching small satellites) and Chengdu, where police just raided an underground church about to commemorate the June, 1989 democracy demonstration in Tiananmen Square. (This is an opportunity for students to trace the Yangtze River on a map of China.)
Attention to ecology along this Yangtze River route is a priority in China. It entails:
Attention to ecology along this Yangtze River route is a priority in China. It entails:
- Closing polluting chemical plants
- Restoration of lakes and wetlands
- Sewage treatment
- Regulating the fishing industry
- Developing clean air technology (See earlier post,"How to Meet the Clean Air Challenge.")
- Integrating non-polluting energy sources into the existing power grid'
- Building new eco-friendly communities (See earlier post, "Priority: Eliminate generating electricity from fossil fuels.")
A new project in China's far western reaches demonstrates Beijing's focus on developing non-polluting energy sources. Where the Yangtze is known as the Jinsha Jiang River, the new Lawa hydroelectric dam will generate two billion watts of power, the same energy supplied by the U.S. Hoover Dam, on the border between Sichuan and the Tibetan Plateau.
Development along the Yangtze also indicates China's interest in technological progress. Economic assistance is going to the Donghu New Technology Development Zone east of Wuhan. The zone houses the FiberHome Technology Group, an optic fiber communications center, and the Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. Producing memory chips for China's semiconductor industry has become a personal priority of President Xi Jinping.
The U.S. Commerce Department's April, 2018 7-year ban on sales of chips to ZTE, the high-tech firm in China's integrated circuit and Smartphone industry, exposed dependence on exports from Qualcomm in California. Once again the consequences of cheating played a part. False statements and missing export records showed ZTE violated a 2017 settlement by illegally using U.S. chips in telecommunications equipment shipped to Iran and North Korea. Although ZTE had settled the 2017 case by paying a $1.2 billion penalty and promising disciplinary actions against 39 employees involved in illegal conduct, ZTE took no personnel measures. To restore Qualcomm's sales to ZTE, the company agreed to install a new management team and to let the U.S. staff a compliance unit that would report to the U.S. Commerce Department for the next ten years. At first the US Congress still rejected the plan, until President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a separate agreement.
Violations of the original ZTE technology agreement and other cases of Chinese infringement on intellectual property rights concern the U.S. about China's interest in stealing chip research, development, and manufacturing know-how, not only how work in these areas is progressing at the zone in Donghu. With nearly 350,000 Chinese students in the United States, universities are warned to lock their labs, and legal interns from China are being kept away from sensitive antitrust cases. (See the post concerning Foxconn's intended facility in Wisconsin in the later post, "Unmask Inscrutable Chinese Intentions.")
Sunday, June 3, 2018
Back to the Fashion Future
Want to wear the latest fashion? Head to Pyongyang or Tbilisi.
Back in 1970, when composer Lenny Bernstein hosted an Upper East Side New York City gathering of guests invited from high society and the leather-clad Black Panther U.S. revolutionaries, recently deceased author, Tom Wolfe, termed the unconventional party mix, RADICAL CHIC. "Radical Chic" could resurface with a new application to the back-to-the-future fashionistas strutting streets in Pyongyang and the former Soviet Republic of Georgia.
The couple who skated for North Korea in the Winter Olympics wore outfits indistinguishable from those worn by contestants from other countries. At home in Pyongyang, women who enjoy the perks of close association with Kim Jong Un's government also find tailors with pre-communist roots who are willing to stitch up unique designs, sometimes from customer sketches, unlike the dark, loose fitting clothes available for the masses. Rather than local fabrics, the fashion savvy even look for clothes made from Chinese and, occasionally, Western textiles.
Over in Tbilisi, the latest fashion is a downscale look. Georgians discovered Demna Gvasalia, a local designer who made good when he escaped and set up a fashion house, Vetements, in Zurich, Switzerland. Other local designers followed his lead, but stayed at home. Just as North Korea's communist style clothing is boring, before the collapse of the Soviet Union and the local "fashion" industry in Georgia, the dominant look also was dull and drab. The current trend may not be drab, but it is basic, jeans, T-shirts, tote bags, and the like, at couture prices.
What makes Georgia's everyday items worth the price is their rare origin from a place only jet setters have the funds and time to visit. For the same reason, North Korea's new headlines might motivate the fashion oneupsmanship that attracts wealthy tourists who have been everywhere else in the world.
Back in 1970, when composer Lenny Bernstein hosted an Upper East Side New York City gathering of guests invited from high society and the leather-clad Black Panther U.S. revolutionaries, recently deceased author, Tom Wolfe, termed the unconventional party mix, RADICAL CHIC. "Radical Chic" could resurface with a new application to the back-to-the-future fashionistas strutting streets in Pyongyang and the former Soviet Republic of Georgia.
The couple who skated for North Korea in the Winter Olympics wore outfits indistinguishable from those worn by contestants from other countries. At home in Pyongyang, women who enjoy the perks of close association with Kim Jong Un's government also find tailors with pre-communist roots who are willing to stitch up unique designs, sometimes from customer sketches, unlike the dark, loose fitting clothes available for the masses. Rather than local fabrics, the fashion savvy even look for clothes made from Chinese and, occasionally, Western textiles.
Over in Tbilisi, the latest fashion is a downscale look. Georgians discovered Demna Gvasalia, a local designer who made good when he escaped and set up a fashion house, Vetements, in Zurich, Switzerland. Other local designers followed his lead, but stayed at home. Just as North Korea's communist style clothing is boring, before the collapse of the Soviet Union and the local "fashion" industry in Georgia, the dominant look also was dull and drab. The current trend may not be drab, but it is basic, jeans, T-shirts, tote bags, and the like, at couture prices.
What makes Georgia's everyday items worth the price is their rare origin from a place only jet setters have the funds and time to visit. For the same reason, North Korea's new headlines might motivate the fashion oneupsmanship that attracts wealthy tourists who have been everywhere else in the world.
Monday, March 5, 2018
China Stretches a Napoleon-Style Belt
Emperor Xi Jinping gained open-ended power, when China's Communist Party scrapped his two, five-year term limit in February, 2018. He already had launched an ambitious One Belt, One Road (OBOR) Initiative to connect China to Europe and a Maritime Silk Road (MSR) that will join China to Africa. The Silk Road term, not coined until the 19th century by a German, is well suited to the OBOR and MSR initiatives which mimic the ancient variety of land and sea routes that carried silk and other goods, as well as ideas, between Asia, Europe, and Africa. Many have observed, however, that besides a means to facilitate trade, China's port projects could serve as a way to establish worldwide influence and naval bases for China's expanding navy.
In pinyin, the form of Chinese characters described in Roman letters, the One Belt, One Road Initiative is called yidaiyilu. The worldwide use of English and the U.S. dollar rankles China. Beijing's Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies claims globalization is now causing many words, such as xiongmao, the pinyin word for giant panda, to be recognized outside of China.
Ever since Romans built the Appian Way, leaders have recognized how transportation binds an empire together. Yet, China's infrastructure projects will test the tight control Beijing now maintains over its citizens' telecommunication and face-to-face contacts with the outside world. Like the Chinese employees who built the railroad in Kenya, those building the new container terminal and nearby oil storage installation at Walvis Bay in Germany's former African territory of Namibia, are sealed off from the local community. They live in a closely monitored compound of barracks imprisoned by a wall topped by electrified barb wire.
Stretching thousands of miles from Beijing, work on the OBOR and MSR cannot help but require ongoing contacts with local government officials, financial institutions, suppliers, laborers, religions, and academics in the countries the roads pass. Already, the China Democratic League, one of China's eight non-communist parties, submitted a proposal to the advisory body, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, suggesting cultural exchanges along the routes are as important as trade.
Singapore-based Broadcom's failed hostile bid for the San Diego company, Qualcomm, might, however, signal China's determination to maintain control over vast areas by using high-speed optic fiber communications and Smartphone communication and data exchange. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) cited national security issues to block Broadcom from access to Qualcomm's wireless chips and 5G (fifth generation) high-speed mobile network technology and standards. In April, 2018, the U.S. Commerce Department placed a 7-year ban (now lifted) on sales of chips, all from Qualcomm, to China's ZTE, because the company violated a 2017 agreement not to send telecommunications equipment containing Qualcomm chips to Iran and North Korea. In Australia, (and later in the UK and Sweden) China's Huawei telecom companies remain banned from 5G networks. Before its US-blocked acquisition of Qualcomm, Broadcom transferred its headquarters from Singapore to San Jose, California, and later purchased Manhattan-based CA Technologies, a chipmaker in the infrastructure software field. In July, 2018, China would block Qualcomm's acquisition of China's NXP semiconductor company.
Noticeably missing from China's One Belt, One Road initiative was any reference to North Korea. But that was before members of the women's hockey players in North and South Korea agreed to play together in the 2018 winter Olympics; and U.S. President Trump accepted Kim's invitation to meet on June 12, 2018 in Singapore. Suddenly, on March 25, 2018, North Korea's dark green train carried Kim to China for a strategy session prior to the upcoming US-North Korean meeting, from which China was excluded. Subsequently, Beijing agreed to Liaoning province's $88 million plan to build roads on the North Korean side of the Friendship Bridge that connects the two countries at Dandong.
Whether China's strategy in Africa is considered part of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) or an extended One Belt-One Road-One Continent strategy, China already has shown interest in the Continent by its trade, military base in Djibouti, the dam its Export-Import Bank built in Uganda, and railroad projects in Zambia, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Nigeria. Other current and proposed Chinese port, rail, and airport projects ring Africa in the following countries:
In pinyin, the form of Chinese characters described in Roman letters, the One Belt, One Road Initiative is called yidaiyilu. The worldwide use of English and the U.S. dollar rankles China. Beijing's Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies claims globalization is now causing many words, such as xiongmao, the pinyin word for giant panda, to be recognized outside of China.
Ever since Romans built the Appian Way, leaders have recognized how transportation binds an empire together. Yet, China's infrastructure projects will test the tight control Beijing now maintains over its citizens' telecommunication and face-to-face contacts with the outside world. Like the Chinese employees who built the railroad in Kenya, those building the new container terminal and nearby oil storage installation at Walvis Bay in Germany's former African territory of Namibia, are sealed off from the local community. They live in a closely monitored compound of barracks imprisoned by a wall topped by electrified barb wire.
Stretching thousands of miles from Beijing, work on the OBOR and MSR cannot help but require ongoing contacts with local government officials, financial institutions, suppliers, laborers, religions, and academics in the countries the roads pass. Already, the China Democratic League, one of China's eight non-communist parties, submitted a proposal to the advisory body, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, suggesting cultural exchanges along the routes are as important as trade.
Singapore-based Broadcom's failed hostile bid for the San Diego company, Qualcomm, might, however, signal China's determination to maintain control over vast areas by using high-speed optic fiber communications and Smartphone communication and data exchange. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) cited national security issues to block Broadcom from access to Qualcomm's wireless chips and 5G (fifth generation) high-speed mobile network technology and standards. In April, 2018, the U.S. Commerce Department placed a 7-year ban (now lifted) on sales of chips, all from Qualcomm, to China's ZTE, because the company violated a 2017 agreement not to send telecommunications equipment containing Qualcomm chips to Iran and North Korea. In Australia, (and later in the UK and Sweden) China's Huawei telecom companies remain banned from 5G networks. Before its US-blocked acquisition of Qualcomm, Broadcom transferred its headquarters from Singapore to San Jose, California, and later purchased Manhattan-based CA Technologies, a chipmaker in the infrastructure software field. In July, 2018, China would block Qualcomm's acquisition of China's NXP semiconductor company.
Noticeably missing from China's One Belt, One Road initiative was any reference to North Korea. But that was before members of the women's hockey players in North and South Korea agreed to play together in the 2018 winter Olympics; and U.S. President Trump accepted Kim's invitation to meet on June 12, 2018 in Singapore. Suddenly, on March 25, 2018, North Korea's dark green train carried Kim to China for a strategy session prior to the upcoming US-North Korean meeting, from which China was excluded. Subsequently, Beijing agreed to Liaoning province's $88 million plan to build roads on the North Korean side of the Friendship Bridge that connects the two countries at Dandong.
Whether China's strategy in Africa is considered part of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) or an extended One Belt-One Road-One Continent strategy, China already has shown interest in the Continent by its trade, military base in Djibouti, the dam its Export-Import Bank built in Uganda, and railroad projects in Zambia, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Nigeria. Other current and proposed Chinese port, rail, and airport projects ring Africa in the following countries:
- Seychelles
- Mauritius
- Tunisia
- Tanzania
- Uganda
- Rwanda
- South Sudan
- Mozambique
- Namibia
- Gabon
- Cameroon
- Ghana
- Senegal
Sunday, February 4, 2018
Olympic Games Blur Country Borders
It certainly is more fun and less dangerous to compete under the five linked Olympic rings representing the sporting friendship of all people than to engage in a worldwide arms race. After all, with the mingling of countries and cultures in today's world, its hard to tell which country wins or is bested at an international sporting competition. A sample of the athletes who will begin competing in PyeongChang, South Korea, on February 9 uncovers the multicultural passion for sports.
Peninsula communistic and democratic rivals from North and South Korea will enter the Olympic arena together, and their women will compete together on an ice hockey team.
Figure skating pair, Ryom Tae Ok and Kun Ju Si from North Korea trained for the Olympics in Montreal, Canada.
As a refugee, Shannon-Ogbani Abeda learned to ski in Alberta, Canada, where his family fled from Eritrea, Africa, but he'll be competing for Eritrea at the Olympics.
Born in Ghana, Aftica, Maame Biney will be lacing up her speed skates to represent the U.S.
Bobsledders from Nigeria, Africa, will match skills with Canadians and Germans.
In the winter games, Pita Jaufutofua from Tonga will trade the taekwondo competitors he had in Rio's summer games for the Norwegians, Swedes, and Russians he'll meet, when he straps on his cross country skis.
Magnus Kim, a cross country skier whose dad is Norwegian and mother is South Korean, will compete for South Korea.
Chloe Kim, whose parents are from South Korea where her grandmother still lives, is a Californian riding her snowboard for the U.S.
Born of Chinese parents, Nathan Chen will leave his Salt Lake City home in Utah when he hopes to land a record number of quad figure skating jumps for the U.S.
So, when athletes from diverse countries and backgrounds come together in PyeongChang, let the world honor Baron Pierre de Coubertin's 1896 vision for the modern Olympics. Show a shared love of athletics really can help the people of the world understand each other.
Peninsula communistic and democratic rivals from North and South Korea will enter the Olympic arena together, and their women will compete together on an ice hockey team.
Figure skating pair, Ryom Tae Ok and Kun Ju Si from North Korea trained for the Olympics in Montreal, Canada.
As a refugee, Shannon-Ogbani Abeda learned to ski in Alberta, Canada, where his family fled from Eritrea, Africa, but he'll be competing for Eritrea at the Olympics.
Born in Ghana, Aftica, Maame Biney will be lacing up her speed skates to represent the U.S.
Bobsledders from Nigeria, Africa, will match skills with Canadians and Germans.
In the winter games, Pita Jaufutofua from Tonga will trade the taekwondo competitors he had in Rio's summer games for the Norwegians, Swedes, and Russians he'll meet, when he straps on his cross country skis.
Magnus Kim, a cross country skier whose dad is Norwegian and mother is South Korean, will compete for South Korea.
Chloe Kim, whose parents are from South Korea where her grandmother still lives, is a Californian riding her snowboard for the U.S.
Born of Chinese parents, Nathan Chen will leave his Salt Lake City home in Utah when he hopes to land a record number of quad figure skating jumps for the U.S.
So, when athletes from diverse countries and backgrounds come together in PyeongChang, let the world honor Baron Pierre de Coubertin's 1896 vision for the modern Olympics. Show a shared love of athletics really can help the people of the world understand each other.
Saturday, February 3, 2018
Plain Talk about Nuclear North Korea
If you haven't seen the current TIME magazine article (Feb. 12, 2018), it sheds light on how North Korea's so-called hermit kingdom became a nuclear power while no one was looking. Pakistan helped North Korea understand how to enrich uranium for a nuclear warhead, but TIME didn't say where North Korea obtained its uranium. Pyongyang recruited unemployed missile experts (as well as chemical and biological weapons' experts) from Russia and Ukraine in 1991 after the USSR collapsed and later from Iran and Pakistan. A missile engine stolen from the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine also could have ended up in North Korea.
Russia is happy to keep the U.S. distracted, the TIME issue reported. No wonder Moscow stands idly by as sanctions on North Korea make selling its nuclear technology to Syria and other would-be nuclear powers an attractive income producing option. Yet, Russia has shown concern about the nuclear fallout that a US nuclear attack on North Korea could send its way. Moscow strategists state the purpose of their nuclear missiles is to inflict enough devastation on enemies to bring them to the negotiating table. Of course, it makes more sense to avoid all devastation by negotiating before inflicting harm. Hope that is what Kim Jong Un and President Trump are about to do.
At nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap, which was mentioned in the earlier post, "Nuclear Straight Talk," it is possible to predict the extent of fallout from a nuclear detonation in any city.
Russia is happy to keep the U.S. distracted, the TIME issue reported. No wonder Moscow stands idly by as sanctions on North Korea make selling its nuclear technology to Syria and other would-be nuclear powers an attractive income producing option. Yet, Russia has shown concern about the nuclear fallout that a US nuclear attack on North Korea could send its way. Moscow strategists state the purpose of their nuclear missiles is to inflict enough devastation on enemies to bring them to the negotiating table. Of course, it makes more sense to avoid all devastation by negotiating before inflicting harm. Hope that is what Kim Jong Un and President Trump are about to do.
At nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap, which was mentioned in the earlier post, "Nuclear Straight Talk," it is possible to predict the extent of fallout from a nuclear detonation in any city.
Friday, December 22, 2017
2017's Unanswered Security Questions
Information about North Korea, the so-called Hermit Kingdom, is particularly sparse. Who can name any city there besides the capital, Pyongyang? Yet the country seems to have cyber, chemical, biological, nuclear, and long-range missile warfare capabilities. The West knows how to track strategic materials and components, but it seems international intelligence services have not been paying attention to these dangerous goods reaching North Korea. When the US did pay attention, it spotted ships from China and the Maldives delivering oil and supplies in defiance of UN sanctions. (Also see the later post, "Plain Talk about Nuclear North Korea.")
Can February's Olympic Games in PyeongChang, South Korea, avoid becoming another Boston's Patriots Day? Or might North Korea's interest in the Olympics give South Korea an opportunity to deflect Kim Jong un's determination to deploy his nuclear missiles?
Then, there is the question of how Michael Flynn, a U.S. General and Intelligence Officer, became a Russian pawn. Did he give into the temptations of any ambitious, hardworking adviser who lacks the West Point credentials and wealth of those he saw rising to the top in Washington, DC? If so, there are many such bright, ambitious young men and women whom the U.S. can overlook and fail to compensate at its own peril.
Finally, the nagging question of why President Trump continues to whitewash Vladimir Putin remains. We know Putin uses the technique of quieting his opponents by staging their deaths and ordering their assassinations. In the UK, a former Russian military spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter barely survived their March 4, 2018 poisoning attributed to the Kremlin. Putin also threatens the relatives of opponents. Oleg Navalny is in a penal colony in Russia to punish his brother, Alexei, for using his blog to mobilize anti-corruption rallies. Has Putin won Trump's goodwill by threatening the attractive women in his life?
Can February's Olympic Games in PyeongChang, South Korea, avoid becoming another Boston's Patriots Day? Or might North Korea's interest in the Olympics give South Korea an opportunity to deflect Kim Jong un's determination to deploy his nuclear missiles?
Then, there is the question of how Michael Flynn, a U.S. General and Intelligence Officer, became a Russian pawn. Did he give into the temptations of any ambitious, hardworking adviser who lacks the West Point credentials and wealth of those he saw rising to the top in Washington, DC? If so, there are many such bright, ambitious young men and women whom the U.S. can overlook and fail to compensate at its own peril.
Finally, the nagging question of why President Trump continues to whitewash Vladimir Putin remains. We know Putin uses the technique of quieting his opponents by staging their deaths and ordering their assassinations. In the UK, a former Russian military spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter barely survived their March 4, 2018 poisoning attributed to the Kremlin. Putin also threatens the relatives of opponents. Oleg Navalny is in a penal colony in Russia to punish his brother, Alexei, for using his blog to mobilize anti-corruption rallies. Has Putin won Trump's goodwill by threatening the attractive women in his life?
Friday, December 15, 2017
"Don't Give Up On Us...."
Perhaps the key to never giving up on democracy is believing it is not a sure thing, but, as the demonstrations in Iran suggested on New Year's Eve, 2017, neither is democracy's defeat a done deal.
Since 1961, Amnesty International has been keeping track of those subjected to human rights violations. If you have as few as five minutes to help alleviate suffering, go to amnestyusa.org and find out what you can do.
U.S. citizen Joshua Holt, a former Mormon missionary charged with spying, and his wife were arrested in Venezuela in June, 2016 when guns were planted in their apartment. U.S. citizen Alan Gross could tell them political conditions can change for the better. He was released in Cuba in 2014, when relations between the two countries improved. Mr. Holt and his wife were released in 2018.
St. Andrew Dung-Lac and his companions were martyred trying to convince North Koreans of their worth before God, but the current regime could not kill Oh Chung-Sung, the North Korean soldier who was seriously wounded when he ran to freedom across the border in November, 2017. The long tapeworms, tuberculosis, and hepatitus B his South Korean doctor found in the 24-year-old soldier tell how wounded North Korea's army already is.
China feels the need to prevent engineers building railroads in Africa from having any local contacts and to control internet access by its citizens at home. Nobel Peace Prize poet, Liu Xiaobo, and his wife had to be confined to their home to keep his pro-democracy works from inciting the public. But a year after Mr. Liu died, his widow, Liu Xia, was released and allowed to go into exile in Germany.
Hong Kong's young pro-democracy activists, who carried on knowing they faced repeated arrests after leading a 2014 protest, triumphed when an appeals court overturned their sentences in February, 2018. Despite the threat of receiving a prison term of up to three years, Hong Kong soccer fans bravely turned their backs on the playing of China's nation anthem, "March of the Volunteers," in October, 2017. Hong Kong protests that began in early June, 2019, aimed to eliminate the threat of transferring domestic criminals to the China mainland for trial. As demonstrations continued into August, both demands for democratic reforms and police intervention increased. China's slowing economy already raises Beijing's fear of an inability to control mainland dissatisfaction with a declining standard of living and seems to restrain the Xi government from further aggravating conditions by using military force against its citizens in Hong Kong. Unknown is how much broadcast and social media coverage of the Hong Kong protests reaches the restive Tibetan and Muslim populations in western China and what impact the news might be having.
In Russia, Putin's prosecutors have to rely on bogus accusations to keep the Navalny brothers, Oleg and Alexei, from running for President and using social media to mount anti-corruption proptest marches, not only in Moscow, but throughout Russia. Communist politicians lost elections in 2018, when Russia's senior citizens began protesting Putin's plan to raise the age when they could retire and claim pensions. In TIME magazine (the May 1/May 8, 2017 issue), former Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, said, "I am convinced Russia can succeed only through democracy."
Classic World War II Christmas carols retain their meaning during this holiday season. We think about the spread of democracy and sing, "Have yourself a merry little Christmas...Next year all our troubles will be miles away...Some day soon we all will be together, if the fates allow."
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Look East at South Korea, China, and Japan
North Korea is not the only country drawing attention eastward. On February 9, 2018, the Winter Olympics will begin in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
In October, 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China confirmed Xi Jinping as China's President for his second, and probably not final, 5-year term. His Chinese Socialism for a New Era is designed to replace Russia with China as the world's other superpower.
Unlike Russia, Xi cracks down on the corruption that makes President Putin vulnerable to opposition by those suffering economic deprivation. But Xi is not confident enough of his position to lessen censorship or to release from house arrest the widow of Liu Xiaobo, a leader of China's pro-democracy demonstration in 1989, or to free, permanently, critics, such as activists, Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, and Alex Chow, who organized a 2014 pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong.
China's neighbor in Japan continues to push for a constitutional amendment that would give the country the right to maintain a military force. Like Xi, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won a landslide election in October, 2017 that solidified his position and plans for economic growth. In 2020, the Summer Olympics will come to Tokyo.
In October, 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China confirmed Xi Jinping as China's President for his second, and probably not final, 5-year term. His Chinese Socialism for a New Era is designed to replace Russia with China as the world's other superpower.
Unlike Russia, Xi cracks down on the corruption that makes President Putin vulnerable to opposition by those suffering economic deprivation. But Xi is not confident enough of his position to lessen censorship or to release from house arrest the widow of Liu Xiaobo, a leader of China's pro-democracy demonstration in 1989, or to free, permanently, critics, such as activists, Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, and Alex Chow, who organized a 2014 pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong.
China's neighbor in Japan continues to push for a constitutional amendment that would give the country the right to maintain a military force. Like Xi, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won a landslide election in October, 2017 that solidified his position and plans for economic growth. In 2020, the Summer Olympics will come to Tokyo.
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Modern Deterrents
Watching today's young Japanese students push their desks to the side of the room and hide under them, as teachers pull shades over the windows to deflect flying glass, only reminds us this was a procedure that couldn't protect populations from nuclear attacks in the 1950s. Strategies designed to protect a retaliatory second strike weapon system after an initial surprise bombing in the 1960s are out-of-date as well.
Nuclear-equipped enemies in the 21st century include minor nations and possible terrorist groups that have nothing to lose. Major players have cyber soldiers that don't move on their stomachs. They keep coming without food or sleep. Not only nuclear fallout can contaminate an environment, but climate change and asteroid collisions with Earth also threaten the world's food supply.
We are seeing people taking survival into their own hands. One of the characters on "Orange is the New Black" represents those families who prepare their own caves with guns and a stockpile of food and water. Refugees already begin walking or taking to the sea in leaking boats and rafts to escape war-torn areas. Farmers are developing cross-breeding for livestock and hydroponic and aquaponic growing methods to produce food in new ways.
Computer hacking and nanotechnology offer new defensive options for compromising the performance of all sorts of enemy systems. Enemies know how each others guidance systems work. Besides shooting nuclear ICBMs out of the sky and scattering radioactive particles over the Earth, redirecting ICBMs (and any enemy weapons) to strike whoever launched them has the potential to transform MAD (mutually assured destruction) into SAD (self assured destruction) and cause the most fearsome tyrant to try to scamper for a submarine.
Programmers already send drones to destroy targets as small as individuals. There are "Hurt Locker" experts who disable bombs on land. Could drones disable nuclear missiles in space? In films, astronauts also keep asteroids from hitting Earth, and furry little forest creatures cause oncoming cyber soldiers to crash by tangling their legs in vines. Meanwhile, high-tech Star Wars airmen penetrate fortresses through air supply vents.
In the past, shields have blocked arrows, gun powder reduced castle walls to rubble, tanks swept around the Maginot Line, and an armada of fishing boats rescued an army, while prayer and repentance saved Nineveh from destruction. Alliances change from century to century, but the darkness of night, fog, snow, and a blinding sunrise still have the power to deter an effective military response.
The wise expect an unending race between offense and defense and use their smarts to triumph.
Nuclear-equipped enemies in the 21st century include minor nations and possible terrorist groups that have nothing to lose. Major players have cyber soldiers that don't move on their stomachs. They keep coming without food or sleep. Not only nuclear fallout can contaminate an environment, but climate change and asteroid collisions with Earth also threaten the world's food supply.
We are seeing people taking survival into their own hands. One of the characters on "Orange is the New Black" represents those families who prepare their own caves with guns and a stockpile of food and water. Refugees already begin walking or taking to the sea in leaking boats and rafts to escape war-torn areas. Farmers are developing cross-breeding for livestock and hydroponic and aquaponic growing methods to produce food in new ways.
Computer hacking and nanotechnology offer new defensive options for compromising the performance of all sorts of enemy systems. Enemies know how each others guidance systems work. Besides shooting nuclear ICBMs out of the sky and scattering radioactive particles over the Earth, redirecting ICBMs (and any enemy weapons) to strike whoever launched them has the potential to transform MAD (mutually assured destruction) into SAD (self assured destruction) and cause the most fearsome tyrant to try to scamper for a submarine.
Programmers already send drones to destroy targets as small as individuals. There are "Hurt Locker" experts who disable bombs on land. Could drones disable nuclear missiles in space? In films, astronauts also keep asteroids from hitting Earth, and furry little forest creatures cause oncoming cyber soldiers to crash by tangling their legs in vines. Meanwhile, high-tech Star Wars airmen penetrate fortresses through air supply vents.
In the past, shields have blocked arrows, gun powder reduced castle walls to rubble, tanks swept around the Maginot Line, and an armada of fishing boats rescued an army, while prayer and repentance saved Nineveh from destruction. Alliances change from century to century, but the darkness of night, fog, snow, and a blinding sunrise still have the power to deter an effective military response.
The wise expect an unending race between offense and defense and use their smarts to triumph.
Tuesday, July 4, 2017
China's Manifest Destiny East, West, North, and South
Mainland China is not about to let Hong Kong stand in the way of its "Manifest Destiny" to the East. Despite the terms of the 1984 Sino-British treaty that ended colonial rule and prepared Hong Kong to become a semi-autonomous region of China on July 1, 1997, the island is unlikely to remain unchanged for 50 years. In fact, free elections ended three years ago. On June 30, 2017, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry said the mainland is no longer bound by the 1984 treaty.
On July 1, 2017, just before Hong Kong's annual march to commemorate the 1984 treaty, China's President Xi Jinping, on his first visit to the island, warned "Any attempt to endanger China's sovereignty and security, challenge the power of the central government...or use Hong Kong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against the mainland" is an "impermissible" way to cross a red line.
Martin Lee, who is known as Hong Kong's "father of democracy," observed money is all the Communist Party has. (Under Deng Xiaoping, China embraced striving for economic progress by the country and individuals.) It has no core values or principles of freedom, civil rights, or a rule of law.
He told the 60,000 or more pro-democracy protesters on July 1, "Even if our country will be the last in the entire world to reach that goal, we will still get there."
Meanwhile, China will continue to pursue its eastward quest to dominate the South China Sea and maintain control over its so-called semi-autonomous regions: Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
Activities involving India and Myanmar (Burma) also reveal China's interest in securing a strategic position in the West. Its Maritime Silk Road (road, bridge, and tunnel) project, estimated by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to cost at least $1.7 trillion per year through 2030, is designed to reconstruct the ancient Silk Road linking China to India. The hydroelectric dam China built on the Brahmaputra River gives Beijing control over the needed monsoon water that flows from Tibet through India and Bangladesh. And China's interest in securing access to the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar prevents Beijing from pressuring that country to severe its military ties to North Korea.
As for China's quests in the North and South, see the posts, "China Stakes a New Arctic Claim," China's plans for its Polar Silk Road in "Santa Opens Arctic for Business," and "China Is Everywhere in Africa."
On July 1, 2017, just before Hong Kong's annual march to commemorate the 1984 treaty, China's President Xi Jinping, on his first visit to the island, warned "Any attempt to endanger China's sovereignty and security, challenge the power of the central government...or use Hong Kong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against the mainland" is an "impermissible" way to cross a red line.
Martin Lee, who is known as Hong Kong's "father of democracy," observed money is all the Communist Party has. (Under Deng Xiaoping, China embraced striving for economic progress by the country and individuals.) It has no core values or principles of freedom, civil rights, or a rule of law.
He told the 60,000 or more pro-democracy protesters on July 1, "Even if our country will be the last in the entire world to reach that goal, we will still get there."
Meanwhile, China will continue to pursue its eastward quest to dominate the South China Sea and maintain control over its so-called semi-autonomous regions: Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
Activities involving India and Myanmar (Burma) also reveal China's interest in securing a strategic position in the West. Its Maritime Silk Road (road, bridge, and tunnel) project, estimated by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to cost at least $1.7 trillion per year through 2030, is designed to reconstruct the ancient Silk Road linking China to India. The hydroelectric dam China built on the Brahmaputra River gives Beijing control over the needed monsoon water that flows from Tibet through India and Bangladesh. And China's interest in securing access to the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar prevents Beijing from pressuring that country to severe its military ties to North Korea.
As for China's quests in the North and South, see the posts, "China Stakes a New Arctic Claim," China's plans for its Polar Silk Road in "Santa Opens Arctic for Business," and "China Is Everywhere in Africa."
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Blind Trust in AI Is a Mistake
For better or worse, combining algorithms with images collected by drones, satellites, and video feeds from other monitors enhances aerial intelligence in a variety of fields.
Overhead movie and TV shots already provide a different perspective, just as viewing the Earth or a rocket launch from a space craft or satellite does. These new perspectives offer advantages besides entertainment value and a chance to study the dwindling ice cap at the North Pole.
Seen from above, data about landscapes has various applications. The famous Texas Gulf Sulphur Company case involving insider trading began with aerial geophysical surveys in eastern Canada. When pilots in planes scanning the ground saw the needles in their instruments going wild, they could pinpoint the possible location of electrically conductive sulphide deposits containing zinc and copper along with sulphur.
When Argentina invaded Britain's Falkland Islands in April, 1982, it's been reported the only map the defenders possessed showed perfect picnic spots. Planes took to the air to locate the landing spot that enabled British troops to declare victory at Port Stanley in June, 1982.
Nowadays, the aim is to write algorithms that look for certain activities among millions of images. A robber can program an algorithm to tell a drone's camera to identify where delivery trucks leave packages. An algorithm can call attention to a large group of people and cars arriving at a North Korean missile testing site. Then, an analyst can figure out why, because, to date, artificial intelligence (AI) does not explain how and why it reaches a conclusion.
Since artificial intelligence's algorithms operate in their own "black boxes," humans are unable to evaluate the process used to arrive at conclusions. Humans cannot replicate AI processes independently. And if an algorithm makes a mistake, AI provides no clues to the reasoning that went astray.
In other words, robots without supervision can take actions based on conclusions dictated by faulty algorithms. An early attempt to treat patients based on a "machine model" provides a good example. Doctors treating pneumonia patients who also have asthma admit them to the hospital immediately, but the machine readout said to send them home. The "machine" saw pneumonia/asthma patients in the hospital recovered quickly and decided they had no reason to be admitted in the first place. The "machine" did not have the information that their rapid recovery occurred, because they were admitted to the hospital's intensive care unit.
Google's top artificial intelligence expert, John Giannandrea, speaking at a conference on the relationship between humans and AI, emphasized the effect of bias in algorithms. Not only does it affect the news and ads social media allows us to see, but he also echoed the idea that AI bias can determine the kind of medical treatment a person receives and, based on AI's predictions about the likelihood of a convict committing future offenses, it can affect a judge's decision regarding parole.
Joy Buolamwini's Algorithmic Justice League found facial-analysis software was prone to making mistakes recognizing the female gender, especially of darker-skinned women. AI is developed by and often tested primarily on light-skinned men, but recognition technology, for example, is promoted for hiring, policing, and military applications involving diverse populations. Since facial recognition screening fails to provide clear identifications of some populations, it also has the potential to be used to identify non-white suspects and to discriminate against hiring non-white employees.
When humans know they are dealing with imperfect information, whether they are playing poker, treating cancer, choosing a stock, catching a criminal, or waging war, how can they have confidence in authorizing and repeating a "black box" solution that requires blind trust? Who would take moral and legal responsibility for a mistake. The human who authorized action based on AI, wrote the algorithm, or determined the data base the algorithm used to determine its conclusion? And then there is the question of the moral and legal responsibility for a robot that malfunctions while it is carrying out the "right" conclusion.
Research is trying to determine what elements are necessary to help AI reach the best conclusions. Statistics can't always be trusted. Numbers that show terrorists are Muslims or repeat criminals are African Americans do nothing to suggest how an individual Muslim or African American should be screened or treated. AI research is further complicated by findings that also suggest the mind/intellect and will that control moral values and actions are separate from the physical brain that controls other human activities and diseases such as epilepsy and Parkinson's.
Automated solutions require new safeguards: to defend against hacking that alters information, to eliminate bias, to verify accuracy by checking multiple sources, and to determine accountability and responsibility for actions.
Overhead movie and TV shots already provide a different perspective, just as viewing the Earth or a rocket launch from a space craft or satellite does. These new perspectives offer advantages besides entertainment value and a chance to study the dwindling ice cap at the North Pole.
Seen from above, data about landscapes has various applications. The famous Texas Gulf Sulphur Company case involving insider trading began with aerial geophysical surveys in eastern Canada. When pilots in planes scanning the ground saw the needles in their instruments going wild, they could pinpoint the possible location of electrically conductive sulphide deposits containing zinc and copper along with sulphur.
When Argentina invaded Britain's Falkland Islands in April, 1982, it's been reported the only map the defenders possessed showed perfect picnic spots. Planes took to the air to locate the landing spot that enabled British troops to declare victory at Port Stanley in June, 1982.
Nowadays, the aim is to write algorithms that look for certain activities among millions of images. A robber can program an algorithm to tell a drone's camera to identify where delivery trucks leave packages. An algorithm can call attention to a large group of people and cars arriving at a North Korean missile testing site. Then, an analyst can figure out why, because, to date, artificial intelligence (AI) does not explain how and why it reaches a conclusion.
Since artificial intelligence's algorithms operate in their own "black boxes," humans are unable to evaluate the process used to arrive at conclusions. Humans cannot replicate AI processes independently. And if an algorithm makes a mistake, AI provides no clues to the reasoning that went astray.
In other words, robots without supervision can take actions based on conclusions dictated by faulty algorithms. An early attempt to treat patients based on a "machine model" provides a good example. Doctors treating pneumonia patients who also have asthma admit them to the hospital immediately, but the machine readout said to send them home. The "machine" saw pneumonia/asthma patients in the hospital recovered quickly and decided they had no reason to be admitted in the first place. The "machine" did not have the information that their rapid recovery occurred, because they were admitted to the hospital's intensive care unit.
Google's top artificial intelligence expert, John Giannandrea, speaking at a conference on the relationship between humans and AI, emphasized the effect of bias in algorithms. Not only does it affect the news and ads social media allows us to see, but he also echoed the idea that AI bias can determine the kind of medical treatment a person receives and, based on AI's predictions about the likelihood of a convict committing future offenses, it can affect a judge's decision regarding parole.
Joy Buolamwini's Algorithmic Justice League found facial-analysis software was prone to making mistakes recognizing the female gender, especially of darker-skinned women. AI is developed by and often tested primarily on light-skinned men, but recognition technology, for example, is promoted for hiring, policing, and military applications involving diverse populations. Since facial recognition screening fails to provide clear identifications of some populations, it also has the potential to be used to identify non-white suspects and to discriminate against hiring non-white employees.
When humans know they are dealing with imperfect information, whether they are playing poker, treating cancer, choosing a stock, catching a criminal, or waging war, how can they have confidence in authorizing and repeating a "black box" solution that requires blind trust? Who would take moral and legal responsibility for a mistake. The human who authorized action based on AI, wrote the algorithm, or determined the data base the algorithm used to determine its conclusion? And then there is the question of the moral and legal responsibility for a robot that malfunctions while it is carrying out the "right" conclusion.
Research is trying to determine what elements are necessary to help AI reach the best conclusions. Statistics can't always be trusted. Numbers that show terrorists are Muslims or repeat criminals are African Americans do nothing to suggest how an individual Muslim or African American should be screened or treated. AI research is further complicated by findings that also suggest the mind/intellect and will that control moral values and actions are separate from the physical brain that controls other human activities and diseases such as epilepsy and Parkinson's.
Automated solutions require new safeguards: to defend against hacking that alters information, to eliminate bias, to verify accuracy by checking multiple sources, and to determine accountability and responsibility for actions.
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Foreign Experiences Teach Students Hard Lessons
Otto Warmbier's plight is a sad reminder that international travel subjects students to the laws of foreign countries. In North Korea, Warmbier was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor for, what the local government considered, illegally removing a propaganda poster. He was returned to the United States in a coma and died.
No matter how sympathetic students are with the causes that bring protesters to the streets in Moscow, Cairo, or Beijing, they need to remember that by joining a march they risk testing the limited power of diplomacy to release them from arrest or detention. When local governments have strict drug laws and penalties for photographing military guards and installations, ignorance is no defense from local prosecution. The time to write an article, give a speech, or take any other action about international injustices and harsh penalties is when a student is safely home.
Without offering international opportunities, colleges and universities realize they would fail to prepare students for their future careers. In response to increased study abroad, the U.S. State Department has a one-stop information destination: studentsabroad.state.gov. One of the most important programs offered is STEP, the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program. By enrolling with the nearest U.S. Embassy or Consulate in the country a student plans to visit, the Embassy/Consulate knows where to issue a warning to leave the country if a coup or civil war is imminent and where to send news of a family emergency.
At the State Department's general site for international travel, travel.state.gov, students will find information about:
No matter how sympathetic students are with the causes that bring protesters to the streets in Moscow, Cairo, or Beijing, they need to remember that by joining a march they risk testing the limited power of diplomacy to release them from arrest or detention. When local governments have strict drug laws and penalties for photographing military guards and installations, ignorance is no defense from local prosecution. The time to write an article, give a speech, or take any other action about international injustices and harsh penalties is when a student is safely home.
Without offering international opportunities, colleges and universities realize they would fail to prepare students for their future careers. In response to increased study abroad, the U.S. State Department has a one-stop information destination: studentsabroad.state.gov. One of the most important programs offered is STEP, the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program. By enrolling with the nearest U.S. Embassy or Consulate in the country a student plans to visit, the Embassy/Consulate knows where to issue a warning to leave the country if a coup or civil war is imminent and where to send news of a family emergency.
At the State Department's general site for international travel, travel.state.gov, students will find information about:
- passports and visas,
- worldwide alerts and travel warnings for particular countries
- what to do in all sorts of emergencies, including lost passports, arrests & detentions, medical problems, and natural disasters.
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