"Don't Give Up On Us...."

Skeptics scoff at the activists in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Turkey who still cling to the belief that democracy and dignity will overcome the authoritarian rule that triumphed following the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011-2013. How can today's Rohingya Muslims fleeing their burning villages in Myanmar envision democratic rule when they lack support from Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner whose civilian party won a parliamentary majority in 2015, after the country's military regime released her from house arrest in 2010?

Perhaps the key to never giving up on democracy is believing it is not a sure thing, but, as the demonstrations in Iran suggested on New Year's Eve, 2017, neither is democracy's defeat a done deal.

Since 1961, Amnesty International has been keeping track of those subjected to human rights violations. If you have as few as five minutes to help alleviate suffering, go to amnestyusa.org and find out what you can do.

U.S. citizen Joshua Holt, a former Mormon missionary charged with spying, and his wife were arrested in Venezuela in June, 2016 when guns were planted in their apartment. U.S. citizen Alan Gross could tell them political conditions can change for the better. He was released in Cuba in 2014, when relations between the two countries improved. Mr. Holt and his wife were released in 2018.

St. Andrew Dung-Lac and his companions were martyred trying to convince North Koreans of their worth before God, but the current regime could not kill Oh Chung-Sung, the North Korean soldier who was seriously wounded when he ran to freedom across the border in November, 2017. The long tapeworms, tuberculosis, and hepatitus B his South Korean doctor found in the 24-year-old soldier tell how wounded North Korea's army already is.

China feels the need to prevent engineers building railroads in Africa from having any local contacts and to control internet access by its citizens at home. Nobel Peace Prize poet, Liu Xiaobo, and his wife had to be confined to their home to keep his pro-democracy works from inciting the public. But a year after Mr. Liu died, his widow, Liu Xia, was released and allowed to go into exile in Germany.

Hong Kong's young pro-democracy activists, who carried on knowing they faced repeated arrests after leading a 2014 protest, triumphed when an appeals court overturned their sentences in February, 2018. Despite the threat of receiving a prison term of up to three years, Hong Kong soccer fans bravely turned their backs on the playing of China's nation anthem, "March of the Volunteers," in October, 2017. Hong Kong protests that began in early June, 2019, aimed to eliminate the threat of transferring domestic criminals to the China mainland for trial. As demonstrations continued into August, both demands for democratic reforms and police intervention increased. China's slowing economy already raises Beijing's fear of an inability to control mainland dissatisfaction with a declining standard of living and seems to restrain the Xi government from further aggravating conditions by using military force against its citizens in Hong Kong. Unknown is how much broadcast and social media coverage of the Hong Kong protests reaches the restive Tibetan and Muslim populations in western China and what impact the news might be having.

In Russia, Putin's prosecutors have to rely on bogus accusations to keep the Navalny brothers, Oleg and Alexei, from running for President and using social media to mount anti-corruption proptest marches, not only in Moscow, but throughout Russia. Communist politicians lost elections in 2018, when Russia's senior citizens began protesting Putin's plan to raise the age when they could retire and claim pensions.  In TIME magazine (the May 1/May 8, 2017 issue), former Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, said, "I am convinced Russia can succeed only through democracy."

Classic World War II Christmas carols retain their meaning during this holiday season. We think about the spread of democracy and sing, "Have yourself a merry little Christmas...Next year all our troubles will be miles away...Some day soon we all will be together, if the fates allow."

Light Travels Faster than the Days before Christmas

I don't know if observations like this led to Einstein's quantum theory or his theory of relativity, but I do know that all the observations he made before he bothered to begin talking led to his later work.
At a presentation by James Costa, when he was discussing his new book, Darwin's Backyard; How Small Experiments Led to a Big Theory, which includes DIY experiments kids could do, a member of the audience asked him if he thought experiments came before theory or vice versa. Acknowledging, it was a bit like the chicken and the egg, he said he thought observation and curiosity probably came first.

This got me thinking about what has happened in the Middle East since the Arab Spring in 2011. On the nightly news, I well remember seeing a smiling Secretary of State Hillary Clinton surrounded by smiling Egyptian faces in Tahrir Square then. Just as vividly, I remember Mrs. Clinton responding, during her presidential campaign of 2016, to a Congressional committee blaming her for U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens' death in Benghazi, Libya. Curious about what changes took place between 2011 and 2016, I looked for answers in Steven A. Cook's book, False Dawn.

Members of the administration of George W. Bush initially saw the Arab uprisings in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia as confirmation of the wisdom of 2003's invasion, Operation Iraqi Freedom. Historical observation could have predicted the Middle East had not been waiting for a foreign intervention and occupation to bring democracy to the region. Even so, once protesters overthrew the "stable" authoritarian regimes U.S. policy traditionally supported, U.S. administrations continued to believe they should be involved in the democratization of the Middle East. If for no other reason, Washington continued to provide economic, political, diplomatic, and military support to countries allied with its U.S. interests there.

The trouble with trying to bring democracy to the Middle East is, as observation shows, the region has no Magna Carta tradition nor a political-philosophical underpinning of John Locke and Thomas Jefferson. What it does have is a legacy of pan-Arabism expansion, the Muslim religion, authoritarian systems supported by fear, and tribal fragmentation. Instead of democracy reaching the Middle East, maybe  observation could have told the world to expect terrorists and social media to push an Arab-Muslim agenda West?

Given the actual situation in the Middle East, how could a New Year's Resolution to use curiosity and new observations come up with ways to satisfy the peaceful desires of people, not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world? In what ways could travel, technologies, new roles of women as entrepreneurs and politicians, education, natural and man-made disasters, and medical advances foster peaceful changes?

Stage Your Life

Lin-Manuel Miranda, born of poor immigrant parents from Puerto Rico, wrote and stars in the extremely successful Broadway musical, "Hamilton." On the other hand, a 28-year-old man who was turned down for a job in Tunisia committed suicide by electrocuting himself on a utility pole. Clearly, there are alternative ways to become the center of attention on stage and off.

     Suppose you want to get into a field that is very competitive and has few openings. First of all, it may be a good idea to keep your plan to yourself, since others will be ready to discourage you. Lin-Manuel Miranda's road to "Hamilton" began by reading Ron Chernow's biography of Alexander Hamilton. He saw that Hamilton in real life was very wordy. The rap music Miranda loved also was very dense with words, and it would be the perfect vehicle to tell Hamilton's story in a musical. Besides, he went to John Weidman, who had turned history into a musical called "Assassins," to ask for advice.

     This season we've all heard of Stephen Curry, the Golden State Warrior who is making basketball history with his extra long 3-point shots. At 6'3" and 185 lbs, in a game of giants, he decided he could stand out as a shooter. Want to begin imitating him, check out the website, "30 tips to help become a better shooter." First step, practice, practice, practice. For another route into a sports career, study the erudition of ESPN's "First Take" commentator, Stephen A. Smith, who does his research and can write.

     Spend all your free time playing video games? Learn how to develop one. Even former US Supreme Court Justice, Sandra Day O'Connor founded the iCivics games. Just about any interest can be turned into a video game, considering the wide variety on the market: physical activity in
"GoNoodle," immigration officer for a country in "Papers, Please," rocket building in "Kerbal Space Program," math-related challenges in "Twelve a Dozen," designing a game in "Kodu Game Lab." Check out the igda.org website of the International Game Developers Association to learn about the scholarships it provides and what else it does for a global membership network of game developers.  

     While you are moving toward your super job, even the most lowly job provides an income and offers a chance to look around, to see how business works, to learn how customers behave, to improve your skills, and to become more valuable to an employer by making your job more productive and efficient. On the job, you can meet people and learn whom you need to know to get into your chosen field. Which employees are rewarded with thousands of dollars and promotions at the end of the US television show, "Undercover Boss?"  Those who treat customers well, follow the rules, offer suggestions that will provide more efficient and better service, and appreciate being given an opportunity (like the ex-convict who was a fast learner and hard worker). Everything you can learn on a job is a valuable lesson for your future.

    Suppose no one will hire you, while you are preparing for your dream job. Suicide is not the only option. Crowdfunding sites might be able to attract investors for your project. Try setting up a page on kickstarter, indiegogo, fundable, fondly, InvestingZone, Growthdeck, or other crowdfunding sites that continue to appear. Chinese young people who migrate to urban areas to find work, like other young people who continue to live with their parents, know they can return to family farms, if they fail to find a job in a car or computer factory. Skilled handy men and women who live on farms can offer their services to professionals in urban areas. With a truck, haul away junk and things that can be recycled from businesses and residences. In a family, one with a job can pay the bills while another can take over the household, childcare, and financial management responsibilities.  In some countries, governments do the job of relatives by providing benefits while the unemployed have the job of, for example, finding their next acting jobs.

(For other ideas to help find the position you really want, check out earlier posts, "Can't Find a Job or Career, Create One" and "Star-struck Realities.")

   

Look Beyond Africa's Current Woes

Falling commodity prices and a terrorist attack in Tunisia haven't prevented the private equity Abraaj Group's institutional investors, pension funds, and development finance institutions from making a total $1.37 billion investment, mainly in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

Arif Naqvi, Abraaj's founder, sees middle class consumption doubling in the region between 2014 and 2024. Consequently, what the fund looks for is well-managed, mid-market businesses where the fund can influence strategy and growth in fields that benefit from the growing middle class. These fields include: healthcare, education, consumer goods and services, business services, materials, and logistics.

Remember when Lucy in the "Peanuts" cartoon said what she wanted as a gift was real estate. Grandparents might look beyond the latest toys and video games advertised on TV and give their grandchildren a stake in a fund with emerging market investments. It won't be a favorite gift now, but when the high costs of college and grad school come around, kids (and their parents) will be very grateful.