Has China Overplayed Its Hand?

Xi Jinping, Chairman of China's Communist Party, envisions a "China Dream", not to cool or feed the planet, but to regain China's place, center stage in world history. Kublai Khan's civilization, superior to Europe's in the 13th century, waited for Marco Polo to discover Chinese people paid for their goods with paper money and healed their wounds with a kind of vasoline. Unwilling to wait for China to be discovered in the 21st century, Chairman Xi chooses to dream of world domination by following Deng Xiaoping's 1978 advice, "It is a glorious thing to be rich." To be a rich country in the 21st century requires the technological superiority the world associates with Silicon Valley. When Chairman Xi learned, in April, 2018, a US ban on microchip exports could cause the bankruptcy of a Chinese firm, ZTE, he saw how the patent a US company held on a specific semiconductor chip established the international standard for an item essential in every device connected to a cell phone network. From that point on, his "Made in China 2025" program aimed for self reliance and acquiring standard essential patents (SEPs). Using a SEP without being licensed subjects a user to the charge of infringement. According to a German patent data source, Huawei now holds 2000 5G SEPs. Normally, a firm has to license its monopoly rights to anyone on FRAND (fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory) terms. The US wants to withhold licensing its SEPs to competitors because of national security concerns. To be fair, Huawei would have to be allowed to do the same. The chip situation is very complicated, because Washington has not been able to resist lobbying from US firms that want to continue selling chips to Huawei, a short term gain, since China is determined to end reliance on US supplies. Nonetheless, as of September 26, 2020, the US Commerce Department requires US suppliers to obtain hard-to-come-by licenses to export what China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), considered a supplier to the Chinese military, needs to upgrade and maintain its manufacturing and hardware equipment. Not easy to replicate or fund are the processes of: 1) designing the delicate silicon microchips created for different purposes, such as operating driverless cars, and 2) constructing the automated, super-cooled and shock resistant facilities where chips are manuractured. Ironically, Taiwan, which Beijing claims under its "one country, two systems" policy framework, currently is among the countries with facilities capable of fabricating microchips. Yet, Beijing is at odds with the democratic government Taiwan re-elected in January, 2020. Chairman Xi's detrmination to maintain stability through surveillance-guaranteed control and conformity undermines a relationship that provides Taiwan's top tier brainpower and technology. What steps is China taking to reduce external dependency, even from Taiwan, on foreign sources of semiconductor chips? - Enhanced domestic training of top quality skilled workers - Using experienced Chinese hackers to scoop up foreign researh and development progress in a wide variety of high tech industrial, medical, engineering, solar, gaming and military fields - China Talent Plan, a spy-like program for recruiting foreign individuals with access to intellectual technology property who are willing to work with Chinese partners - Huawei, a Chinese company with total annual earnings of over $100 billion annually from 170 countries, sells smartphones and cellular and internat gear that give Beijing potential access to big data from around the world. Some US professors targeted by the China Talent Plan have seemed oblivious to the way China uses them, but the FBI has been concerned for more than a decade. Yanqing Ye, for example, would see herself on an FBI wanted poster after she entered Boston University's Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biomedical Engineering without declaring, on her visa application, her status as a Lieutenant in China's military, her membership in the Chinese Communist Party and her association with China's National University of Defense Technology (NUDT). The FBI found a Princeton professor working on unmanned drones and autonomous submarines with a scientist from NUDT. Although Huawei has global sales, its biggest customer is China, where a 2017 law requires any citizen or organization, including Huawei, to comply with all government requests. Therefore, the US attempts to prevent countries from making Huawei purchases, especially the countries in the "Five Eyes" spying pact that shares intelligence among Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the UK and US. When Britain concluded a review of an April 24, 2019 decision to build its 5G (fifth generation) network with a limited amount of Huawei equipment, the decision was overturned on July 14, 2020. In October, 2020, Sweden also decided not to use Huawei products in its 5G network. Following the UK's decision, Britain suggested forming a 10-country alliance of democracies to develop 5G technology and to eliminate dependence on Huawei and other Chinese technology companies. With 6G technology already on drawing boards, an alliance of G7 countries (Britain, Canada, the US, France, Germany, Italy, Japan) and Australia, South Korea and India represents an important source of brainpower and financing to develop future networks. Such a NATO-like coalition also could more than match China's future investments in computing power to handle big data, the semiconductor industry, drones, robotics, autonomous weapons and other advanced technology. By attempting to gain world domination, China has stirred up widening opposition to its transgressions, such as internment of one million Uighur Muslims in so-called re-education camps, disregard of Hong Kong's 50-year guarantee of rights under China's takeover agreement with Britian and an expanding claim to the South China Sea. What some are calling a tech Cold War is more. Chinese Communism and the democratic ideals of human rights, the rule of law and representative government are waging a battle for history's center stage.

What Would You Say, If You Had A Supermodel's Platform?

Top models from around the world had an opportunity to have their say in Vogue's April, 2020 issue. Kaia Gerber from the United States, who has over five million Instagram followers, noted, "When you have a big platform, it seems irresponsible not to use it for good."

     What models have to say on every subject lacks credibility, but in some areas they are experts. Liu Wen from China observed fashion is a subject that draws people from everywhere together for a creative cultural exchange. And all people should see themselves represented, said the UK's Fran Summers, who has seen a shift from what used to be one stereotype of a beautiful woman. Ugbad Abdi, the model who first wore an Islamic hijab on the cover of Vogue, agrees.

     Although models, like professional basketball players, are taller than average women and men, there is neither one type of Brazilian beauty, says Kerolyn Soares from Sao Paulo, nor one type of black beauty, adds Anok Yai, who was born in Egypt. At age 37, Taiwan's Gia Tang also counters the idea that all models must be younger. Jill Kortleve, a Surinamese-Dutch model with tatoos, who stopped trying to exist on one banana a day, now books runway appearances in her body's normal size. Paloma Elsesser from the United States, a curvy, larger model of color, claims "a whole new guard of image-makers" exists. Latinx model, Krim Hernandez from Mexico, hopes the growing acceptance of inclusive images can lead to a broader acceptance of diversity in general.

     Models also possess credibility to speak on subjects besides fashion and how the media represents women. Growing up in a refugee camp in Kenya and later in Australia, South Sudanese-born Adut Akech advocates for the rights of displaced refugees and the needs of those who suffered losses in Australia's bushfires. Speaking with a distinctive gap in her two front teeth reminiscent of model Lauren Hutton's pioneering look, Ms. Akech simply reports she is doing and saying what she knows best. What Adesuwa Aighewi knows best are authentic products from artisans in her West African, East Asian, and Southeast Asian heritage.  She knows kitenge textiles featuring traditional African patterns are made in China. Ros Georgiou, a model born in Greece, is using her backstage access at runway shows to learn photography and to become a director. From her base in Milan, Italy, Villoria Cerelli applauds the new respect and opportunity she sees being accorded young photographers, hair stylists and makeup artists.

     For Mariam de Vinzelle from France, modeling is a diversion, a hobby. Since she is currently an engineering student, in the future she expects to speak with authority outside the fashion field. India's Pooja Mor already speaks with authority on the Buddhist and Taoist principles of the Falun Gong spiritual practice that grounds people in peace and happiness.

      During Vogue's round-the-world fashion shoot, although all models wore some form of the universal fabric, denim, no one expressed the fashion industry's concern for sustainability: landfills bulging with discarded clothing, recycling and the global water shortage. The fact is, blue jean manufacturers recognize the need to reduce the 500 to 1800 gallons of water needed to grow, dye, and process cotton for one pair of jeans and often to use additional water to prewash or stonewash denim. Even though Demna Gvasalia is the creator director of the venerable fashion house, Balenciaga, the hardships he experienced as a refugee from the Georgia that was part of the Soviet Union influence his attention to sustainability and global sociopolitics. In the March, 2020, issue of Vogue, Mr. Gvasalia discussed his use of upcycled and repurposed denim, questioned how much value to place on material items, and suggested falling in love improves productivity.

     There always is a cause waiting for young people to attract attention to a cure on platforms that reach one friend, their family, a scout leader, teacher, coach, dance class....

   

Can Democracy Be Exported?

Before accepting as an article of faith the glib notion that Russia, Iraq, and other countries with traditions of authoritarian regimes cannot change, consider the observations of Nabeel Khoury, a retired US foreign service officer with extensive experience in the Middle East. Interviewed by Thomas L. Friedman, on c-span's "Book TV" January 15, 2020, Dr. Khoury questioned this assumption. Basically, he said the freedoms in the First Amendment of the US Constitution have universal appeal.

     During President Trump's impeachment trial, Congressional representatives often mentioned the wisdom of the small group who collaborated on the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. In essence, Dr. Khoury recommends a transition to democracy requires similar components: a small cadre of smart influencers and a plan. I was reminded of the intellectuals who gathered at Kavarna Slavia, Prague's Art Deco cafe, to plot Czechoslovakia's "Velvet Revolution."

     That is not to say, democratic changes are free of bloody combat, When Hong Kong's democracy activists first protested China's attempt to void the 1997 Sino-British agreement designed to govern for fifty years after London handed its colony over to Chinese rule, many assumed Beijing quickly would crush resistance. That was eight months ago. In that time, clashes with police and injuries have occurred, but Hong Kong's determination seems to have helped strengthen the determination of nearby Taiwan, another island governed by China, to re-elect a pro-democracy government on January 11, 2020.

     Just as violence can be expected to accompany a transition to democracy, factions within democratic movements also are likely. Authoritarian governments fail to satisfy not only the employment opportunities sought by educated young people in the Middle East and elsewhere, but in Russia, for example, they can fail to accommodate the needs of pensioners who resist increasing the age when they can draw benefits. Some seek freedom from corrupt officials who rob national economies, and others emphasize the desire for personal freedom to express their opinions and to live and work in humane conditions. The earlier marches Alexei Navalny led in Russia sought democratic reform, but he found protests against corruption had more appeal.

     If teachers guided students through the process of writing a Classroom Constitution, their students would see for themselves how factions would emerge to complicate the process. Students would come to appreciate how difficult it is to define the powers and responsibilities Articles would assign to a teacher, students, and administrators, as well as to create mechanisms for resolving disputes.

    Democracy brings with it a battle of ideas, once waged in pamphlets; now in social media. The highly-educated citizens China depends on for technological military and commercial advances value more leisure and call for shorter hours and fewer work days. They also value internet access free of censorship and figure out how to use Western sites both for technological tips and as a means to escape government oversight. On the other hand, new rural arrivals in China's metropolitan areas seek to fulfill basic needs for education, health care, and housing. 

     In order to fashion a democratic structure agreeable to all, masterful leaders need to study political theory and constitutional compromises. The US founders did not share the same objectives. Some owned slaves and others were abolitionists. Some preferred a strong central government; others clung to states' rights. When a rash of countries achieved independence from colonial powers after World War II, Dr. Lorna Hahn envisioned a way global experts could help satisfy the needs of newly independent countries. For 20 years, she sponsored forums and personal contacts that brought together a variety of scholars, such as attorneys experienced in writing constitutions, and leaders from developing countries at an Association on Third World Affairs. 

     For more echoes of Dr. Khoury's belief in the persistent universal quest for freedom that democratic systems of government provide, check out the earlier posts: "Why Do They Love Us?" and "Don't Give Up On Us."

Where Will You Be Happiest in a New Country?

Where will it be easiest to make friends, if you move to a different country for any reason? At internations.org/expat-insider/, you can find the results of an InterNations survey of 14,000 respondents who moved to 67 countries. Countries are ranked for friendliness from the three most welcoming to foreigners (Taiwan, Uganda, and Costa Rica) to the least friendly (Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait).

Before moving to a different country, you can register for free at the InterNations website (internations.org) to find tips about moving to and living in any of 390 cities around the world. InterNations also can help you 1) connect with other expats in each city and 2) meet international people at exciting events there.

How the World Shapes Up

Michigan looks like a mitten to people who live there. What other shapes can children find when they look at maps and atlases of the world?

     Whether it's in their first books, on "Sesame Street," or connecting puzzle pieces, children learn about shapes. Apply this concept to the world, and they will see Italy looks like a boot. The Red Sea is a string bean, and Paraguay and The Gambia are shaped like peanuts. In Africa, some call Zambia the butterfly country because of its shape. My granddaughter thinks Chad looks like a face, and it has a man's name besides. Doesn't India look like a triangle? Lake Victoria is a circle, and there are so many ovals: Madagascar, Taiwan, Mongolia.

     Multicultural Kids (multiculturalkids.com) sells a China puzzle to give children hands-on experience with shapes in that country, while "World GeoPuzzle" from Museumtour.com does the same for the world. And, if you have an expendable world map, kids can point out shapes they would like to cut out and label.