While a name may indicate a person's individualistic inheritance, it fails to disclose everything people want to know about each other. In the case of political candidates, voters want to know that the politicians they elect will correct the problems that matter most to them.
In his new book, How Behavior Spreads: The Science of Complex Contagions, Damon Centola, a sociologist at the University of Pennsylvania, explains how changing complex behavior, such as changing a medical system or reducing the effects of climate change, requires multiple contacts reinforcing the same message over and over.
Individual social media comments on Facebook, for example, can spread a bit of information, such as a job opening, easily and quickly. But it takes more than a march or rally to facilitate complex changes. It takes supporting messages, how-to instructions, and, maybe, competitive motivation from trusted friends, commentators, organizations, and symbols, like a donkey or elephant. Complex changes require effort; they involve physical risk, social ridicule, prayer, an investment of time and money.
Believing social media has the power to make complex changes is a mistake. Convincing and mobilizing a multitude to take the actions needed to overcome inertia takes hard work. The American Revolution, forming labor unions, cleaning up the Great Lakes, and discovering and distributing a polio cure took more than a one-off Tweet.
Showing posts with label voters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label voters. Show all posts
Monday, March 4, 2019
Monday, December 17, 2018
The Congo Needs A Dec. 23 Miracle
Instead of a miracle, a suspicious fire destroyed voting materials and moved the December 23 election of a new president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to December 30. Provisional results of the delayed election showed the surprise victory by Felix Tshisekedi, son of a deceased opposition leader popular in Kinshasa. Nonetheless, controversy surrounds his victory over Martin Fayulu, who was seen as a greater threat to former president Joseph Kabila's history of corruption and disregard for the rule of law. An NGO that fielded 40,000 election observers said their results showed former oil executive, Fayulu, had won, just as a pre-election survey also predicted.
Russia quickly recognized Tshisekedi as the Congo's new president while Martin Fayulu rejected the final election results as a deal engineered between Tshisekedi and Kabila. Many feared protests and violent repression would frustrate the hoped for calm transition.
The former Belgian Congo, nearly three times the size of Nigeria, has almost one million fewer people. On the surface, the 105,000 electronic voting tablets ordered from South Korea for 84,000 polling places created the appearance of a modern election process for the country's 40 million eligible voters. Concern that the tablets could be hacked prevented them from being hooked up for fast transmission of election results. Also, there was concern that the population, especially spread out beyond the Kinshasa capital, had little experience with technology, and unpaved roads and remote areas, only accessible by boats, motorbikes, or helicopters, prevented easy access to voting places.
Voters also have to contend with 100 rebel groups that terrorize the country. From Beni south to Butembo on the eastern border with Uganda, for example, the machete wielding Allied Democratic Forces and Mai Mai militia, who prevent health workers from vaccinating people threatened by the spreading Ebola virus, are not likely to facilitate passage for voters. At the polls, voting also may be prevented by the lack of electricity and charged batteries needed to power voting tablets.
Nothing about the Congo's history suggests a new president offers King Leopold II's former private colony relief from nearly 150 years of suffering that began with harvesting rubber under slavery conditions. Only a year into independence, its first president, Patrice Lumumba, was murdered in 1961. Next, General Joseph Mobutu changed the country's name to Zaire and used the Congo's uranium to become a Cold War player who amassed a private fortune with funds from East and West.
With the flight of Tutsis escaping genocide by Hutus in neighboring Rwanda, fighting began spilling over into Zaire in 1994. Mobutu's opponent, General Laurent Kabila, seized the opportunity to recruit Tutsis and to lead rebels west toward Kinshasa. Mobutu fled into exile in 1997. Kabila seized control of the country, again named the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ruled as a dictator until a bodyguard assassinated him in 2001.
Kabila's son, Joseph, took over the troubled country. In 2006, a new constitution limited a president's time in office to two, 5-year terms, and the UN oversaw a presidential election. In a runoff, Joseph Kabila, head of the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), defeated a former Congolese vice president and rebel leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba. Benba was arrested for war crimes committed by his troops during fighting after the election. Kabila failed to step down as president when his term ended in 2016.
When the December 23, 2018 date finally was set for a new presidential election, Kabila's PPRD selected as its candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister and the party's permanent secretary. Shadary, who has no powerful military or other political base of his own, was viewed as Kabila's puppet. In June, 2018, Bemba's war crimes conviction was overturned. He returned to a hero's welcome in August only to be barred from running for president due to a second charge. Another potential presidential challenger, Moise Katumbi, the wealthy former governor of Katanga's southern cobalt and copper mining province, was sentenced for property fraud and also barred from running for election and from returning to the Congo from Belgium.
Joseph Kabila is adept at eliminating his opposition. When the Catholic Church, which counts at least 40% of the Congo's population as members, began holding parades in support of December's election, police killed 18 marchers. Gaining popularity for any reason is a danger. After the Congo's Dr. Denis Mukwege won a Nobel peace prize in 2018, he narrowly escaped assassination.
Observers, both inside and outside the Congo, suspected Kabila was counting on votes split among the weak slate of presidential candidates, the potential for polling machine irregularities, and protests by Bemba, Katumbi, and others to cause violence that would invalidate the election and leave him as president. The people of the Democratic Republic of the Congo deserve a better Christmas present: a president devoted to bringing them lasting peace and prosperity.
Russia quickly recognized Tshisekedi as the Congo's new president while Martin Fayulu rejected the final election results as a deal engineered between Tshisekedi and Kabila. Many feared protests and violent repression would frustrate the hoped for calm transition.
The former Belgian Congo, nearly three times the size of Nigeria, has almost one million fewer people. On the surface, the 105,000 electronic voting tablets ordered from South Korea for 84,000 polling places created the appearance of a modern election process for the country's 40 million eligible voters. Concern that the tablets could be hacked prevented them from being hooked up for fast transmission of election results. Also, there was concern that the population, especially spread out beyond the Kinshasa capital, had little experience with technology, and unpaved roads and remote areas, only accessible by boats, motorbikes, or helicopters, prevented easy access to voting places.
Voters also have to contend with 100 rebel groups that terrorize the country. From Beni south to Butembo on the eastern border with Uganda, for example, the machete wielding Allied Democratic Forces and Mai Mai militia, who prevent health workers from vaccinating people threatened by the spreading Ebola virus, are not likely to facilitate passage for voters. At the polls, voting also may be prevented by the lack of electricity and charged batteries needed to power voting tablets.
Nothing about the Congo's history suggests a new president offers King Leopold II's former private colony relief from nearly 150 years of suffering that began with harvesting rubber under slavery conditions. Only a year into independence, its first president, Patrice Lumumba, was murdered in 1961. Next, General Joseph Mobutu changed the country's name to Zaire and used the Congo's uranium to become a Cold War player who amassed a private fortune with funds from East and West.
With the flight of Tutsis escaping genocide by Hutus in neighboring Rwanda, fighting began spilling over into Zaire in 1994. Mobutu's opponent, General Laurent Kabila, seized the opportunity to recruit Tutsis and to lead rebels west toward Kinshasa. Mobutu fled into exile in 1997. Kabila seized control of the country, again named the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ruled as a dictator until a bodyguard assassinated him in 2001.
Kabila's son, Joseph, took over the troubled country. In 2006, a new constitution limited a president's time in office to two, 5-year terms, and the UN oversaw a presidential election. In a runoff, Joseph Kabila, head of the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), defeated a former Congolese vice president and rebel leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba. Benba was arrested for war crimes committed by his troops during fighting after the election. Kabila failed to step down as president when his term ended in 2016.
When the December 23, 2018 date finally was set for a new presidential election, Kabila's PPRD selected as its candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister and the party's permanent secretary. Shadary, who has no powerful military or other political base of his own, was viewed as Kabila's puppet. In June, 2018, Bemba's war crimes conviction was overturned. He returned to a hero's welcome in August only to be barred from running for president due to a second charge. Another potential presidential challenger, Moise Katumbi, the wealthy former governor of Katanga's southern cobalt and copper mining province, was sentenced for property fraud and also barred from running for election and from returning to the Congo from Belgium.
Joseph Kabila is adept at eliminating his opposition. When the Catholic Church, which counts at least 40% of the Congo's population as members, began holding parades in support of December's election, police killed 18 marchers. Gaining popularity for any reason is a danger. After the Congo's Dr. Denis Mukwege won a Nobel peace prize in 2018, he narrowly escaped assassination.
Observers, both inside and outside the Congo, suspected Kabila was counting on votes split among the weak slate of presidential candidates, the potential for polling machine irregularities, and protests by Bemba, Katumbi, and others to cause violence that would invalidate the election and leave him as president. The people of the Democratic Republic of the Congo deserve a better Christmas present: a president devoted to bringing them lasting peace and prosperity.
Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Student Elections: Training for the Real Thing
Since votes in elections cause or hinder action, student elections offer a meaningful training ground for affecting change. Even massive demonstrations, such as the March for Our Lives of U.S. students demanding actions to eliminate gun violence, cannot have as great an impact as an elections where voters choose or defeat candidates, such as those funded by the National Rifle Association (NRA).
Before student elections, urge student voters to discuss the elements of fair and winning elections.
Candidate selection: Should anyone be allowed to run? Should candidates need to get a certain number of signatures? Could committees select candidates? Should there be a primary election to narrow the choice of candidates? What affects a candidate's popularity? Research shows candidates can use status or likability models. Status comes from a person's visibility, dominance, and influence on a group. These candidates gain attention by bullying and disparaging voters and by exercising power over them with control of the media, a commanding voice, and even their height. Likability is related to treating people with respect, cooperating/compromising, and knowing how to help people feel good about themselves. A likable leader connects with people and involves everyone in creating group norms, harmony, and a solution everyone buys into.
Funding: What costs go into an election? Posters, flyers, giveaway items, ballots, voting booths, ballot boxes, travel expenses, communication, staff, including staff for accurate tabulation of ballots. Who pays for each? Should there be a spending limit? Can candidates allowed to distribute candy or some other type of "bribe"?
Date of election and event scheduling: One day of voting or more? How soon after new students enter a school should an election be scheduled? Should those about to graduate vote for those who will attend next year? Select dates that do not conflict with other major events. When should elections be announced?
Length of campaign: Should campaigns have beginning and ending dates? or be open-ended?
Platform: What is most important to voters? Should voters be surveyed to identify main issues?
Can candidates get away with wild promises? lies?
Campaign slogans: What to say? Negative or positive themes. How many words? Include candidate's name? Where to use slogan (posters, bumper stickers, yard signs, T-shirts, commercials)? I still remember this slogan a student used in a high school election campaign, "You will not be forgotten. Cast your vote for Kathy Hotten." Check out student election poster samples at
postermywall.com/index.php/posters/search?s=student election.
Public events: Will each candidate have a campaign kickoff event? Will all candidates give a speech at an all school assembly? Will candidates visit each classroom? Will students be invited to submit questions a moderator could ask candidates at an assembly? How many events?
Dirty tricks: What are some examples? How will hecklers by handled? Misplaced/stolen ballot boxes. Do you need security officers?
Voter eligibility: Need to develop voter lists. If those who check voter lists won't know everyone, how will voters identify themselves and be sure to only vote once? Print official ballots in a way they can't be copied (colored paper?)
If students have an opportunity to watch an election campaign in any country, they could write a short paper about their observations and make a prediction of whom they think will win.
Upcoming presidential elections in 2018
Before student elections, urge student voters to discuss the elements of fair and winning elections.
Candidate selection: Should anyone be allowed to run? Should candidates need to get a certain number of signatures? Could committees select candidates? Should there be a primary election to narrow the choice of candidates? What affects a candidate's popularity? Research shows candidates can use status or likability models. Status comes from a person's visibility, dominance, and influence on a group. These candidates gain attention by bullying and disparaging voters and by exercising power over them with control of the media, a commanding voice, and even their height. Likability is related to treating people with respect, cooperating/compromising, and knowing how to help people feel good about themselves. A likable leader connects with people and involves everyone in creating group norms, harmony, and a solution everyone buys into.
Funding: What costs go into an election? Posters, flyers, giveaway items, ballots, voting booths, ballot boxes, travel expenses, communication, staff, including staff for accurate tabulation of ballots. Who pays for each? Should there be a spending limit? Can candidates allowed to distribute candy or some other type of "bribe"?
Date of election and event scheduling: One day of voting or more? How soon after new students enter a school should an election be scheduled? Should those about to graduate vote for those who will attend next year? Select dates that do not conflict with other major events. When should elections be announced?
Length of campaign: Should campaigns have beginning and ending dates? or be open-ended?
Platform: What is most important to voters? Should voters be surveyed to identify main issues?
Can candidates get away with wild promises? lies?
Campaign slogans: What to say? Negative or positive themes. How many words? Include candidate's name? Where to use slogan (posters, bumper stickers, yard signs, T-shirts, commercials)? I still remember this slogan a student used in a high school election campaign, "You will not be forgotten. Cast your vote for Kathy Hotten." Check out student election poster samples at
postermywall.com/index.php/posters/search?s=student election.
Public events: Will each candidate have a campaign kickoff event? Will all candidates give a speech at an all school assembly? Will candidates visit each classroom? Will students be invited to submit questions a moderator could ask candidates at an assembly? How many events?
Dirty tricks: What are some examples? How will hecklers by handled? Misplaced/stolen ballot boxes. Do you need security officers?
Voter eligibility: Need to develop voter lists. If those who check voter lists won't know everyone, how will voters identify themselves and be sure to only vote once? Print official ballots in a way they can't be copied (colored paper?)
If students have an opportunity to watch an election campaign in any country, they could write a short paper about their observations and make a prediction of whom they think will win.
Upcoming presidential elections in 2018
- Azerbaijan, April 11
- Montenegro, April 15
- Paraguay, April 22
- Venezuela, May 20
- Colombia, May 27
- Mexico, July 1
- Mali, July 29
- Bosnia and Herzegovina, October 7
- Brazil, October 7
- Afghanistan, October 20
- Madagascar, November 24
- Democratic Republic of the Congo, December 23
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