Has DON'T Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Gone Too Far?

The absence of other customers in a store, where I was shopping, this week caused me to realize the growing number of options for NOT doing-it-yourself (DIY). Enter information about your style and size on an app, and you'll receive a selection of clothes. Decide what you want to eat and a meal to help you lose weight, a pizza, or the ingredients you need to prepare your own meal will turn up at your door. If you are willing to at least drive to a store, you can email your food, toys, or discount store shopping lists and the store will gather what you need/want and have your package ready for pick-up.

     It's not just a matter of creating apps-platforms to engage attention, technology has decided how we manage our lives. Now, there even are apps telling us to stop using apps. It doesn't take a smartphone to ask young people:

• Where would you like to travel?
• What would you like to eat?
• What is your favorite outfit? 
• What world problem would you like to solve?
• How much would you like to weigh?
• What sport do you like to play?
• What kind of song would you like to hear?
• What GPA would you like to have?
• What kind of movie would you like to see? 

Then, have young people decide how to "solve" any of these questions and begin their DIY solution. Decide on a time for them to show-off their solution (on a platform?). Or, invite original thinkers to communicate and publish their DIY ideas in a zine, hand drawn (some in the form of comics) and written (possibly as music). Also, look for a local library that has a section devoted to zines or a Zinefest, where other original thinkers share their zines.

Career Choices for an Automated Future

At the end of the day, have any of us thought about the immutable function of nature, i.e. light waves, used to measure distance or why democratic governments recognize their obligation to protect the civil liberties, the rights of their citizens, but Communist governments don't.

     Robots with artificial intelligence might as well take our jobs, if we lack the humility to recognize we don't have all the answers and have no curiosity, no love of learning, no desire to read a book, and no willingness to risk the failure of trying something new.

     Five  thinkers present alternative approaches to future employment.

Personal Touch

Being able to relate, person to person, on an emotional level could be the winning skill for some future careers in fields such as medicine, police work, and religion. What needs are people satisfying, when they check their smartphones, a mirror, or the mole on their arm over and over every day? Are they concerned about social issues outside themselves, life changing measures that offer hope and motivation, reduced anxiety, or a functional benefit that provides more money?

     How much does a patient want to know about her or his condition? the risks of treatment options? how long it will be before treatment provides a better quality of life? Some 81-year-olds will arrive at a doctor's office having done extensive internet research about their ailments and ready to take any risks for the possibility of improving their lives, even if costly pills, twice weekly therapy sessions, and monthly doctor's visits will continue for the rest of their lives. Some won't.

     Eric Mack, who wrote an article for inc.com, suggests students have opportunities in careers that enable them to do what robots can't: deliver personalized service, diagnose and solve non-routine problems, and enter into a collaborative give and take with others. At Big Think (Nov. 13, 2016), Micho Kaku said robots can't match the creativity and imagination needed by gardeners, scientists, and those who write rock and toll tunes. Amazon, Netflix, and Spotify try to pick the books, movies/TV shows, and music you'd choose for yourself and Facebook thinks it can select only the news and ads you want to see, but maybe you or a person who knows you personally can provide even better suggestions.

.
 Cottage Industries

Jack Ma, founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, China's family of Amazon-like e-commerce businesses, expects small companies to use the internet to find customers and sell their products throughout the world. He suggests schools need to prepare students to analyze customer data. To operate on the world stage, he fails to mention a small business owner also needs to understand foreign currencies, laws, and languages. New importers and exporters could benefit from an organization similar to the Food Enterprise & Economic Development (FEED) Kitchen in Madison, Wisconsin. This nonprofit incubator for would-be entrepreneurs in the food industry helps obtain necessary permits; provides kitchen, refrigerator, freezer, dry storage, and dish washing space; and serves as a drop-off point for deliveries.

     Microsoft's co-founder, Bill Gates, echoes Ma's emphasis on the need for educational systems to prepare students to base conclusions on statistical analysis. Where Ma's focus is on consumer data, Gates' is on data related to the spread of disease. He stresses the importance of science, engineering, and economics and equipping students to understand what those in these fields can and cannot do.

     Think about the book and movie, The Big Short, which entertained and explained the financial concepts of the 2008 housing crash. How can entrepreneurs and small businesses in the arts earn a living on the world stage?

Leader/Servant

David Eli Lilienthal, the director and chairman of the government-owned Tennessee Valley Authority that brought electric power to a region not served by private corporations, made a fortune by taking chances in private business after he left the public sector. In the journals, actually loose-leaf notebooks, he began writing when he was a high school student, we learn he found the business life full of creative original minds, but he also found solving management problems was not enough. He missed the gratification of public service until he found a way to combine it with private enterprise in the big, new company he started. He found he could make a profit by helping foreign countries develop their resources for the benefit of their citizens.

In Conclusion

There you have it, advice to offer personal service, start a small business, or found/work for a major corporation that makes big profits from projects that improve the world. Your choice. As Ma believes, "machines will never get the wisdom and experience that comes from being human."

Time to Revisit China's and the World's Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

Watching how a change in the amount one country's currency, such as a US dollar, can buy of another country's currency, such as Chinese yuan, illustrates globalization at work. Currency exchange rates certainly demonstrate how countries are interconnected.

     What brings this subject to mind (after it was addressed in the earlier post, "When to Buy/Sell in the World Market") is today's Chinese devaluation of its currency by about 2% against the US dollar. Based on information in the earlier post, kids who have an interest in finance might conclude China was attempting to reduce the price of its exports in order to compete with lower priced goods from other countries. China's imports of luxury goods and electronics from the US would cost more, and US tourists in China would get more for their money.

     In the past, China selected a midpoint currency conversion rate that fluctuated between 2% above or below the US dollar. As a result of China's first devaluation, the US dollar could buy 6.22 yuan compared to 6.11 the day before. The next day the value of the yuan dropped a little over 4%, but that is nothing like the 20% to 40% devaluation that would be needed to compete with much lower priced competitors like Vietnam or Burma. Although China did not want to risk losing investment capital that would exit a country whose currency has this kind of weak buying power, subsequent devaluations have caused capital to flee.

     The truth is, demand is weak within China, as shown by Alibaba's slowed quarterly growth. China's $50 billion canal project in Nicaragua has been put on hold until 2016. While no reason was given, the stock market dip has caused the fortune of Wang Jing, CEO of the HKND Group funding the canal, to fall from $10.2 billion to $1.1 billion. Yet, in December, 2015, President Xi Jinping announced China would be giving Africa emergency food and $60 billion in grants and loans.

     Weak demand throughout the world is hurting all exporters, including South Korea and Taiwan. Countries that depend on their commodity exports to China are especially hard hit as reported in the later post entry, "Falling Commodity Prices Spur Diversification in Emerging Markets." A 2% currency devaluation and even a 20% devaluation will not cure sluggish worldwide industrial and consumer demand.

   

   

   

   

   

Let's Visit China

While the world is focused on Scotland's vote to remain in the United Kingdom, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, and ways to contain the ISIS menace, a  number of Chinese developments merit attention.


China's e-commerce platform, Alibaba, raised $25  billion when its shares went on sale September 19, 2014. As with other e-commerce firms, there are charges pending about the lack of sales tax paid on Alibaba purchases, and there is concern about e-commerce sales of counterfeit items. Also, there has been no news about how well China's shipping and delivery network is handling online purchases, a problem that has adversely affected India's e-commerce boom (See the later blog post,"Problems Present Career Opportunities.").

Alibaba was not the only company to enjoy a strong response to its initial stock offering. China's CGN nuclear power group received a similar response when its shares went on sale for the first time in Hong Kong. Yet, in January, 2015, the Chinese residential real estate developer, Kaisa Group Holdings, defaulted on a $128 million payment to foreign investors holding $500 million in bonds promising a 10.25% yield.

Urbanization and higher incomes in China are raising demand for locally produced goods, baby formula, disposable diapers, Western foods (such as cheese and Starbuck's and Costa coffee) and movies. Aiming to expand into the film business, Dalian Wanda, China's fourth richest man, who operates China's largest cinema chain and luxury hotels, is expected to open a major office in Hollywood, where he  has shown interest in buying shares in and film collaboration with Hollywood's Lionsgate studio. Jack Ma, executive chairman of Alibaba, also has had discussions with Lionsgate. In 2017, movie box office revenue in China will be $8.6 billion. By then, film studios and movie stars will begin to stash revenue in the Khorgos tax haven on China's far northwestern border with Kazakhstan.

Local governments continue to prop up failing heavy industrial plants, and China's manufacturing sector does not turn down opportunities to produce religious items. Though an atheist country, a Chinese factory has published over 125 million Bibles. Unfettered industrialization continues to cause China problems with pollution. Recent studies show China's population produces more carbon dioxide (CO2) per head than the European Union and U.S. Therefore, it was great news November 12, 2014 to learn that China and the U.S. have signed a pact, however symbolic, to limit carbon emissions. At a dinner and meeting in Beijing's Great Hall of the People during the November 11-12, 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, both President Obama and President/General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, stressed peace, prosperity, stability, and a partnership that fosters security in a Pacific Ocean "broad enough to accommodate the development of both China and the United States."

At the end of the APEC summit, after Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and China's President met on November 10, 2014, Abe said he hoped the two countries would talk again and again (a hotline to prevent their vessels from conflict in the East China Sea has been proposed) and that they would work toward a mutually beneficial relationship. Earlier, a Chinese diplomat in Iceland was arrested as a spy for Japan.

Hong Kong tycoons are spending freely. The Chan brothers have donated $350 million to Harvard and expect to make another sizable donation to the University of Southern California. Stephen Hung ordered $20 million worth of Rolls Royces to transport gamblers at his Louis XIII resort in Macao. Nonetheless, Chinese gamblers, who have been staying away from Macao's casinos for fear of being targeted in China's crack down on corruption, have put a big dent in the island's revenue as they try to stay clear of China's anti-graft investigations into the origin of their wealth. Casinos in Cambodia have benefited from this exodus of Chinese gamblers trying to stay under the radar. Macau's investors, on the other hand, are trying to regain visitors by following the Las Vegas model and giving the island a more family-friendly image by adding a $2.3 billion theme park to a new casino.

Despite the use of tear gas and the arrest of a leader of the pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, which has an almost country-to-country border crossing procedure with mainland China, protests continue to oppose Beijing's attempt to dictate which candidates can run for election in 2017. (See the later blog post, "Hong Kong Update.") Though not secure from authorities, Hong Kong protesters are using the smartphone mobile app, FireChat, to communicate with each other without relying on Internet connections. President Xi believes foreign countries are involved in the protests.

The number of Chinese students, who once made up 33% of international grad students in the U.S., is decreasing. French speaking Chinese students are on their way to former French African countries to work for Chinese companies there. In English-speaking Africa, China is building a $12 billion, 1,400 km railway in Nigeria.

(For more about China, see the earlier blog post, "See the World.")