A Fork in the Road to the Future

How should children be prepared to handle the next 70 or 80 years of their lives? Or 40-year-olds to handle their next 40 years?

The trendwatching.com site, that has spotters all over the world, found people have looked at current conditions:

• immigration
• refugee crisis
• job automation
• depressed wages
• uneven recovery
• generational divide
• racial divide
• fear of terrorism

and sorted themselves into two groups:

• Global citizens open to an interconnected world, where people learn to understand their changing relationships to neighborhoods, cities, and nations
• Nation nurturers who seek comfort in the familiar

Dealing with change, especially rapid change, is not easy. It is understandable that some want to wall themselves off from foreigners; to pretend technology is going to slow down and manufacturing jobs, as we have known them, are going to return; to listen only to broadcasts that agree with them; and to cling to traditional families where a man works and an uneducated woman stays at home with the children.  But you only need look at one example of the future -  shopping malls and stores empty of consumers of all kinds who have switched over to ordering their needs and wants online - to see change is impossible to escape. (Could these empty stores be converted to on-going world fairs where "shoppers" could go to experience and learn new technologies?)

Like it or not, children are going to live in a world of global citizens. Parents and teachers need to prepare to help them feel at home there. 

World's Food Supply Needs Bees & Bees Need Help

One study found 40% of bee and butterfly pollinators are in decline around the world. As if bees didn't have enough problems with the neonicotinoid type of insecticide that has been causing their colonies to collapse since 2006, now they have to deal with the effects of climate change. When spring-like warming occurs too early, flowers can bloom before bees are ready to make their rounds. Crops of at least 140 nuts, fruits, and vegetables can suffer from a lack of pollination.

     In the US, clocks are about to be moved an hour ahead this weekend to signal the beginning of daylight saving time and the time to get seeds for planting flowers and food crops on commercial farms and in backyards, rain gardens at the curb, and community plots. The Sierra Club has been sending members packets of what the organization calls a "Bee Feed Flower Mix." These packets contain seeds for bee-tasty nectar and pollen from forget-me-nots, poppies, asters, blue flax, white sweet alyssum, lavender, fleabane daisies, and purple coneflowers. What is important is the seeds in these packets are Untreated.

     Untreated seeds are important because treated seeds, such as corn and soybean seeds, are coated with neonicotinoid insecticide to kill pests as soon as the seeds sprout. Frequent exposure to neuro-toxic pesticides that spread through a plant's leaves, pollen, and even nectar damage a bee's nervous and immune systems. While insects destroy plants, so too are strawberries, avocados, peaches, almonds, and other crops lost due to a lack of pollination by bees.

     Presented with a decade of evidence about simultaneous bee colony collapse and neonicotinoid use, the European Union suspended the use of neonicotinoid in 2013. In the US, the Department of Agriculture continues to study the problem, and the Saving America's Pollinators Act of 2015 failed to get out of a House of Representatives subcommittee.

     US consumers and farmers began to take matters into their own hands. There have been consumer campaigns against stores that sell neonicotinoid-treated plants. Gardeners started to grow bee-friendly flowers and to leave woody debris, leaf litter, and bare soil where bees can breed. You can find more on this subject in the earlier post, "Be Kind to Bees."

     Some farms also began to meet the bee health challenge. Besides planting vegetables, an organic farm couple in Minnesota planted flowering dogwood and elderberry hedgerows to attract bees, butterflies, and other insects that pollinate their crops. General Mills, a company that uses honey, fruit, and vegetable ingredients requiring pollination, is working with the Xerces Society and the Department of Agriculture to preserve pollinator habitat on 100,000 acres of US farmland. A plan to grow flowers and shrubs in narrow strips around crop fields is designed to restore seven million acres of land for pollinators in the next five years. But for farmers who usually grow single crops, a shift to diversify with flowers that attract pollinators is not easy. It requires analysis of farm land, how wet and dry it is, for example, and which plants will not attract the insects that could destroy their farm's crops.

     The battle to save bees, and the world's food supply, continues.
   

Space-Searching International Team Sees Results

Using NASA's Kepler Space Telescope, astronomers have found 150,000 stars with 4,706 planets casting a shadow, when they orbit past. The February 23, 2017, issue of Nature reported astronomer Michael Gillon at a Belgium university headed a team that used telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, South Africa, Morocco, Spain, and England to find the Trappist-1 solar system with a planet, Trappist-1e, that maintains a habitable temperature above freezing and below boiling as it orbits around its sun-like star.

     Light from stars is scattered and absorbed differently, if orbiting planets have an atmosphere with a chemical composition. Atmospheric gases, such as methane, oxygen, or carbon dioxide, signal the possibility of water and life. The Hubble Space Telescope has been able to tell what atmospheric gases from two of the Trappist-1 planets don't have, but the spectroscopes the James Webb Space Telescope will carry when it launches, possibly in October, 2018, will be capable of more atmospheric analysis.

How to Become an International Entrepreneur

In Shoe Dog, Phil Knight, the creator/founder of NIKE, quotes the maxim, "When goods don't pass international borders, soldiers will." He adds, "Trade is the path of coexistence, cooperation. Peace feeds on prosperity."

      Knight's book encourages those who would work for world peace and their own happiness. He frankly presents the ways he handled and mishandled the challenges every international entrepreneur faces and tells them they have a big bull's eye on their backs. He observes trolls everywhere trying to block, thwart, and say no to the entrepreneurial spirit. Elsewhere, I've read entrepreneurs can best avoid discouragement by telling no one, when they first decide to start a business.

     Knight's business began modestly. He sold shoes out of the trunk of his car at sporting events and opened his first office next to a pulsating bar.

     He embraced a management style of telling people what to do (not how to do things) and letting them surprise him with the results. What did one of his early employees do? He set up a data base keeping information about his retail customers, not only what they bought but also their birthdays so he could send cards. And he furnished a store with comfortable chairs bought at yard sales, shelved books about running along with shoes, hung posters of runners, and gave his best customers T-shirts with the company logo on them.

     Knight outlines sources of funding: family and friends; local, regional, national, and international banks; venture capitalists; trading companies; public A and B stock offerings. Each funding option has pluses and minuses. Trading companies, for example, lend money with the aim of buying out/taking over the business unless, at the offset, a business stipulates its unwillingness to sell.

     Besides the never-ending need to find funding, Knight ran into other problems. Steve Prefontaine, the famous distance runner who was NIKE's first celebrity endorser, died in an automobile accident. Packing too many innovations into a new shoe led to a recall. Despite a contract, the first overseas manufacturer Knight relied on to provide the shoes he sold decided to dump him and get a new distributor. NIKE would have better luck when it was first to find a shoe supplier in China. In the US, competitors tried to put NIKE out of business by using an American Selling Price customs provision. After making a high priced shoe similar to NIKE's, US manufacturers asked the government to impose a $25 million duty on NIKE imports that totaled 20% of their American selling prices. Even after negotiations, NIKE paid a custom's duty of $9 million.

     Setbacks can turn into learning experiences and worldwide benefits. After the media blasted conditions in its overseas factories, NIKE responded by becoming a leader in the factory reform movement. To eliminate the toxic process of bonding shoe uppers to soles in a rubber room, NIKE invented a fume-less water-based bonding agent that the company shared with its competitors.

     And, finally, Shoe Dog teaches the cure for burnout is more work, and the Japanese word, kensho, means the aha experience of enlightenment, when you suddenly understand.

Small-scale Successes

Small hydroelectric plants and oil from croton nuts supply villages in India with electricity and Kenyans with biofuel. These solutions are too small to attract major foreign investments. In marketing management terms, they would be considered "dogs" with a very little share of overall electricity and fuel markets and limited growth potential.

     Yet I always have respected "dogs." They are like every small scale business, such as a bed and breakfast, barber shop, or organic farm, that provides services/goods and generates enough income to support one or more families.

     Along India's rivers in the Himalayas, Vaishnavi Consultants and other private companies subsidized by the government are building hydroelectric plants that can use small amounts of water to light 100 homes 24 hours a day in remote villages. This clean power adds no pollution in India, the world's third largest sources of carbon dioxide emissions. And the plants provide employment for the day workers who build them and about 25 local people who run them. The government commits to buying the energy for the villages, and, by law, local councils receive a small percentage from the plants' profits.

     Despite the advantages of India's small hydroelectric plants, these projects are not problem free in a country suffering from drought and clean water shortages. Even though the government's bureaucratic process to obtain the necessary permits to built a hydroelectric plant can take two to five years, a lack of oversight and exemption from the government's environmental impact act require remedies. Too many plant sites along the same stream can compromise plant performance and unregulated deforestation by developers almost always violates environmental rules.

     Like India's small hydroelectric plants, biofuel from Kenya's croton trees produces energy with fewer carbon emissions than coal, oil, or gas. Further, without deforestation or replacing agricultural land needed to grow food crops, the Nanyuki-based Eco Fuels company presses oil from the nuts of the croton trees that grow wild in the Mount Kenya and Rift Valley regions. Farmers do not need to water or fertilize the trees that they can harvest for six months out of the year. Eco Fuels pays 5,000 farmers for the nuts on delivery, unlike coffee farmers who have to wait months for payment.

    The croton oil used in generators, water pumps, and tractor engines is cheaper than diesel oil and generates 78% less carbon dioxide emissions. The protein-rich seedcake paste left from pressing croton nuts is sold as poultry feed and husks are sold as organic fertilizer.

     Don't discount India's small scale hydroelectric plants or Kenya's croton nuts. For some, these "dogs" are families' best friends.
   

     

   

   

   

   

What Does North Korea's Kim Jong-un Fear?

On February 13, 2017, Kim Jong-nam's assassination with a banned VX nerve agent in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where North Korean nationals have visa free travel, brought to light more information about both North Korea's so-called hermit kingdom and China.

Kim Jong-un, 33, who inherited leadership of North Korea after the death of his father, Kim Jong-Il, was not the first choice for succession. That honor was to go to Kim Jong-nam, 45, until bad publicity followed his 2001 arrest while using a fake passport to sneak into Japan, allegedly to visit Disneyland. New information in 2018 claimed Kim Jong Il and his other son, North Korea's current leader, Kim Jong-un, tried unsuccessfully to visit the West using fake names and Brazilian passports in the 1990s.

Although Kim Jong-nam was the illegitimate son of Kim Jong-Il and Sung Hae-rim, the South Korean-born actress murdered under suspicious circumstances in Moscow in 2002, he grew up with all the advantages of an heir and attended school in Europe, where he was susceptible to capitalist teachings and playboy womanizing. A bloody shootout with Kim Jong-nam's bodyguards failed to kill him in 2011, but it showed Kim Jong-un considered his half brother a threat to his position.

When Beijing became Jong-nam's protector, Kim Jong-un also seemed to have his suspicions about China, supposedly North Korea's closest ally. Back in December, 2013, Jong-un ordered the arrest and execution of his uncle and close adviser, Jang Song-thaek, who was considered North Korea's liaison representative with China.

 Despite reports that Kim Jong-nam was trying to defect to the EU, US, or South Korea, did Peking see Jong-nam as a possible hereditary backup in case China wanted to stage a North Korean takeover? At the time of his assassination in the Malaysian International Airport, Jong-nam was separated from his bodyguards, and he was en route to Macau, the "Las Vegas of Asia" and former Portuguese territory that became China's autonomous Special Administrative Region for at least 50 years beginning in 1999.

When Malaysian police began looking into possible North Korean embassy and airline personnel involvement in Jong-nam's assassination, North Korea prevented Malaysian citizens from returning home.

How to Recruit a Spy

It's no secret. Recruiting a spy is as easy as M.I.C.E. Michael V. Hayden, former head of the CIA, wrote in his book, Playing to the Edge, spies are recruited through Money, Ideology, Compromise, and Ego.

Prime targets are those:

• who need money because they can't pay their gambling or other debts,
• who believe their country's system of government relies on a bankrupt ideology,
• who can be blackmailed (compromised) because they harbor sexuality, stealing, or other secrets they want to hide,
• who have bruised egos because they feel they have been unfairly fired, passed over for a promotion, or ignored even though they are smarter than everyone else.

Conversely, if you don't want to be recruited as a spy, don't fall into these traps.