In fact, eliminating the head of a drug cartel can spawn a host of little drug organizations, Jack Devine wrote in his book, Good Hunting. What happened after Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, and Qaddafi were eliminated? What have those who watched the TV version of the successful hunt and death of Pablo Escobar, Colombia's notorious drug lord, witnessed after Colombia's June 17 election? The 2,000-member National Liberation Army (ELN), though smaller than FARC's once 18,000 guerrillas, is demonstrating the challenge separate dedicated cells can present.
During 50 years that resulted in 220,000 deaths, the Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of (FARC) used drugs to finance efforts to overthrow the Colombian government. Coca cultivation for the cocaine trade continues to grow, reaching a new high in 2018 with a 17% increase over 2017. Security forces have failed to stop the violence occurring in former FARC areas where cocaine production continues on the Colombian border.
President Juan Manuel Santos, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for the 2016 peace accord he negotiated with FARC, could not run for another term. Two potential presidential successors emerged from the May 27 primary this year:
Ivan Duque, the conservative Democratic Central party candidate mentored by Alvaro Uribe, a major critic of the Santos peace accord and Colombia's former conservative, authoritarian president, who is now accused of accepting a bribe (a charge he denies) from right wing paramilitary groups,
ans
Gustavo Petro, a pro-peace former guerrilla member and former mayor of Bogota who also opposed President Santos.
Duque won with 45% of the vote and will take office as President on August 7. Petro may not be the only loser. When FARC controlled as much as 40% of the country, a diverse variety of species was untouched in this wide tropical area. Under Santos, scientists working on the "Colombia BIO" project began a comprehensive systematic survey in the former FARC territory with the idea of transforming biological assets into economic benefits, such as the eco-tourism Chile and Argentina plan to attract with their national park systems featuring biodiversity. How important the new regime considers funding for "Colombia BIO" is unknown.
What is known is fragmented FARC and ELN guerrilla groups, as well as paramilitary forces, continue to fight for control of the coca fields still being cultivated to supply the demand for cocaine in the US and elsewhere. Infrastructure needed to switch to legal crops and approved funding for former FARC members to set up co-ops have not materialized
ELN members live without uniforms in towns and villages as civilians who infiltrate political parties, local governments, progressive social movements, and universities. A 5-man central command, headed by Jaime Galvis, that uses encrypted computers to direct attacks has never engaged in serious peace talks.
Despite the problem of even getting ELN to a negotiating table, Duque's supporters continue to consider peace treaty terms with FARC too lenient. His congressional leader, Ernesto Macias, rejects the peace accord's provision that imposes no prison time on disarmed FARC leaders who agree to confess their crimes to a special tribunal based on the model South Africa used after apartheid. Ten non-voting members of FARC; including Sandra Ramirez, the lover of FARC's founder, Manuel Marulanda, now hold seats in Congress. Duque, who studied at Georgetown and worked for the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, D.C., won election on a vague plan to foster entrepreneurship, talent, and knowledge that had more appeal to voters than Petro's idea about replacing oil, the country's major export, with a green economy based on agribusiness. Duque needs the cooperation of Macias to pass legislation to reform Colombia's pension system by raising the retirement age, to improve court efficiency, and to reduce corporate taxes.
In September, 2018, a referendum on seven measures designed to stem corruption was defeated, when only a third of the voters needed to pass it went to the polls. The death of Jorge Enrique Pizano in his home, apparently from cyanide poisoning in November, 2018, finds Colombia involved in one of the Odebrecht bribery cases spilling over from Brazil. Partners, the Odebrecht construction firm and the Grupo Aval financial group owned by Colombia's Luis Carlos Sarmiento, won a $1.6 billion contract to build Ruta del Sol, a road connecting Bogota with the Caribbean beaches. A Grupo Aval auditor, the deceased Mr. Pizano , had discovered $30 million of the $1.6 billion contract was paid for what were listed as consultancies that could have been a cover for what were, at least in part, political bribes. Grupo Aval and Nestor Humberto Martinez, Grupo Aval's attorney, denied prior knowledge about $11 million in bribes Odebrecht admitted to the U.S. Department of Justice it paid to obtain the Ruta del Sol contract. Yet in early 2018, Mr. Pizano had given the Noticias Uno TV program recordings of his secret conversations with Mr. Martinez about the consultancy payments. Mr. Martinez, who is now Colombia's Attorney General, has recused himself from all cases, including Mr. Pizano's death, relating to the Ruta del Sol contract. Public pressure urges his resignation.
Colombia has seen an influx of as many as 1.5 million immigrants fleeing dire political and economic conditions in neighboring Venezuela. Work permits, health benefits, and study opportunities have been provided for at least 442,000 as a return favor for the hospitality Venezuela offered those fleeing FARC's reign of terror. To cover Colombia's growing need for revenue, Duque considered expanding the value-added-tax to include staples, including some foods, that are now excluded, but Duque is likely to find his approval rating drop the way Santos' did to 14%, when he raised taxes. In fact, Duque's approval rating in November already is half the 54% it was a month after he took office.
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