A Chinese delegation, now in the United States, is not there to celebrate the beginning of China's Year of the Pig on February 5, 2019. Instead, the visit signals a transition between what has been an extended period of U.S.-Chinese economic cooperation to what students and global businesses need to regard with caution as an impending era of competition.
Setting speculation aside, Beijing, which already uses facial recognition technology to track 2.5 million troublesome Buddhists and Muslims, also expects to be on high alert on other days in the Year of the Pig:
March 10: 60th anniversary of Tibetans uprising against Chinese rule. Dalai Lama subsequently escapes to India and the government he led in Tibet is dissolved.
May 4: The 100th anniversary of a student movement that welcomed science and democracy.
June 4: The 30th anniversary of the crack down on the democracy demonstration in Tiananmen Square.
October 1: A military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China.
Like global businesses, young people around the world, who will be in China competing in the 2022 Winter Olympics, need to learn more about this important country. When children learn a Chinese tradition includes giving kids money in red envelopes at the beginning of a new year, they will want to adopt the tradition where they live. Adults everywhere already enjoy multi-course meals at Chinese restaurants.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Thursday, January 24, 2019
"I Don't Like to Talk to People"
Sometimes a statistic jumps out at you. The December 2018/January 2019 issue of the AARP Magazine , originally targeted to "old" people over 55, reported one of its studies found, "a third of Americans over age 45 are lonely." There are seven billion people in the world, I thought, how is this possible?
Then, I remembered hearing a young person, who was ordering pizza online, say, "I don't like to talk to people." In many parts of the world, modern life makes it possible to avoid talking to people. Besides ordering food, you can make appointments, do your banking, get a boarding pass, and order just about anything, from clothes to concert tickets to a date, online. Ear buds enable a person to cut off all contact with the outside world.
When using social media to "talk" to people, I've noticed communication often is brief. If you venture a longer comment to express an opinion, you can be misunderstood or shutdown with an insulting reaction. Back and forth discussions frequently fail to exist.
It also has become fashionable to reject God and to glorify the kind of individualism that makes people intolerant. They stop engaging in discussions with others and accept their own ideas as Gospel. Once someone casts aside the God-given Ten Commandments or teachings of Jesus, there is no universal secular moral code for a person to follow. It's easy to claim, "unbelievers can be highly moral people," but, through the centuries, people have substituted very questionable moral codes: white Europeans are better than blacks, browns, yellows, reds, and even Jews and dirty whites; capitalists decided they were free to make their own money-making rules because it's "survival of the fittest"; Ayn Rand said tap dancing was the only acceptable form of dancing, because it relied on rational thought not emotion.
It seems there are many paths to loneliness. And there are many destructive remedies: suicide; joining a gang; addictions to food, alcohol, gambling, video gaming, exercise, couch potato binging, sex, and work; deciding not to talk to family members or to keep up with friends who are too stupid or who reject your ideas or lifestyle or you reject theirs.
Over the past holiday season, I've heard people say, "Thanksgiving is just another day, and I'll be able to catch up on work." But I've also seen photos of smiling friends and couples traveling to different parts in the world. I've received a CD of a friend singing in a choir, and I've seen Facebook items from a mom proud of her son's performance as a hockey goalie. My granddaughter and I baked gingerbread cookies and argued about whether to use raisins or tiny chocolate chips for reindeer eyes. She asked me to name seven of her friends. I couldn't, but now I can.
Then, I remembered hearing a young person, who was ordering pizza online, say, "I don't like to talk to people." In many parts of the world, modern life makes it possible to avoid talking to people. Besides ordering food, you can make appointments, do your banking, get a boarding pass, and order just about anything, from clothes to concert tickets to a date, online. Ear buds enable a person to cut off all contact with the outside world.
When using social media to "talk" to people, I've noticed communication often is brief. If you venture a longer comment to express an opinion, you can be misunderstood or shutdown with an insulting reaction. Back and forth discussions frequently fail to exist.
It also has become fashionable to reject God and to glorify the kind of individualism that makes people intolerant. They stop engaging in discussions with others and accept their own ideas as Gospel. Once someone casts aside the God-given Ten Commandments or teachings of Jesus, there is no universal secular moral code for a person to follow. It's easy to claim, "unbelievers can be highly moral people," but, through the centuries, people have substituted very questionable moral codes: white Europeans are better than blacks, browns, yellows, reds, and even Jews and dirty whites; capitalists decided they were free to make their own money-making rules because it's "survival of the fittest"; Ayn Rand said tap dancing was the only acceptable form of dancing, because it relied on rational thought not emotion.
It seems there are many paths to loneliness. And there are many destructive remedies: suicide; joining a gang; addictions to food, alcohol, gambling, video gaming, exercise, couch potato binging, sex, and work; deciding not to talk to family members or to keep up with friends who are too stupid or who reject your ideas or lifestyle or you reject theirs.
Over the past holiday season, I've heard people say, "Thanksgiving is just another day, and I'll be able to catch up on work." But I've also seen photos of smiling friends and couples traveling to different parts in the world. I've received a CD of a friend singing in a choir, and I've seen Facebook items from a mom proud of her son's performance as a hockey goalie. My granddaughter and I baked gingerbread cookies and argued about whether to use raisins or tiny chocolate chips for reindeer eyes. She asked me to name seven of her friends. I couldn't, but now I can.
Friday, January 18, 2019
The AI Rush to Unemployment
China, the United States, Vietnam, South Korea, and Europe are rushing to replace human intelligence with artificial intelligence (AI). Recent magazine articles try to reassure readers that they need not fear being replaced by robots, but the evidence is far from conclusive.
An article in The Economist magazine (January 12, 2019) claimed China can cushion falling employment in export-related industries and its tech sector by increasing jobs in labor-intensive services "from restaurants to couriers." But the December 2018/January 2019 issue of the AARP magazine arrived with news that the vending machine business grew 26% in 2018. Sales went up once machines began accepting payments for beverages and snacks by processing credit cards and other cashless payments. The same magazine also touted the "Starship delivery robot," tested in 100 cities around the world, that uses cameras and sensors, not couriers, to avoid traffic by using sidewalks to deliver meals.
According to "The Truth about Robots," an article in TIME magazine (February 4-11, 2019), AI will not replace some jobs: creative jobs performed by inventors, scientists, novelists, artists; complex, strategic jobs of executives, diplomats, economists; and empathetic and compassionate jobs of teachers, nannies, and doctors. Considering there are a limited number of these positions, automation is making inroads into many of them, and others are low-paid, I am not reassured.
AI tells consumers, if you like that, you'll also like this. It suggests more things to buy but not more ways to make money to buy them. Unemployment raises the specter of modern Luddites, civil unrest, and fear of death by unmanned weapons attacking from land, sea, and space. Jobless, frightened humans are going to protest at home, to cause refugee disease and terrorist problems when they migrate to look for work elsewhere, and to prove vulnerable to scams.
Retraining the workforce seems a key path to the future. When executives in any field spot a new direction their business is going, trendwatching.com suggests they form alliances with academic institutions to help teachers train students for future opportunities. The 3M company, for example, created a free, 110-hour college course to help teachers prepare elementary and middle school students for a science competition that opened young eyes to future careers.
At the very least, countries need to focus on educating the public. Left to themselves, the untethered elite will go on blissfully making fortunes and inventing and doing things without considering the consequences as a helpless majority stands by. John Gray's critique of modern secular humanism identifies the mismatch between the human need for income-producing employment and technology's rush to replace human labor. In his new book, Seven Types of Atheism, he writes, "The cumulative increase of knowledge in science has no parallel in ethics or politics, philosophy or the arts."
There was a time when well-educated folks looked out at the world and decided they could help the sick with "Doctors without Borders" or field a Peace Corps to teach all sorts of skills. Dr. Lorna Hahn organized an association that brought together newly-independent countries with experts who knew how to do things like write constitutions.-
We are at a crossroads, where humanity needs the wisdom, for example, to use CRISPR-Cas9 technology to develop uniform crops machines can harvest to feed the human race, while refraining from using CRISPR-Cas9 technology to edit genes that can eliminate all or part of the human race. (Also see the earlier post, "The Where Did I Come From? Game.") We need experts with ideas about how to engage the billions of workers robots are rushing to replace.
An article in The Economist magazine (January 12, 2019) claimed China can cushion falling employment in export-related industries and its tech sector by increasing jobs in labor-intensive services "from restaurants to couriers." But the December 2018/January 2019 issue of the AARP magazine arrived with news that the vending machine business grew 26% in 2018. Sales went up once machines began accepting payments for beverages and snacks by processing credit cards and other cashless payments. The same magazine also touted the "Starship delivery robot," tested in 100 cities around the world, that uses cameras and sensors, not couriers, to avoid traffic by using sidewalks to deliver meals.
According to "The Truth about Robots," an article in TIME magazine (February 4-11, 2019), AI will not replace some jobs: creative jobs performed by inventors, scientists, novelists, artists; complex, strategic jobs of executives, diplomats, economists; and empathetic and compassionate jobs of teachers, nannies, and doctors. Considering there are a limited number of these positions, automation is making inroads into many of them, and others are low-paid, I am not reassured.
AI tells consumers, if you like that, you'll also like this. It suggests more things to buy but not more ways to make money to buy them. Unemployment raises the specter of modern Luddites, civil unrest, and fear of death by unmanned weapons attacking from land, sea, and space. Jobless, frightened humans are going to protest at home, to cause refugee disease and terrorist problems when they migrate to look for work elsewhere, and to prove vulnerable to scams.
Retraining the workforce seems a key path to the future. When executives in any field spot a new direction their business is going, trendwatching.com suggests they form alliances with academic institutions to help teachers train students for future opportunities. The 3M company, for example, created a free, 110-hour college course to help teachers prepare elementary and middle school students for a science competition that opened young eyes to future careers.
At the very least, countries need to focus on educating the public. Left to themselves, the untethered elite will go on blissfully making fortunes and inventing and doing things without considering the consequences as a helpless majority stands by. John Gray's critique of modern secular humanism identifies the mismatch between the human need for income-producing employment and technology's rush to replace human labor. In his new book, Seven Types of Atheism, he writes, "The cumulative increase of knowledge in science has no parallel in ethics or politics, philosophy or the arts."
There was a time when well-educated folks looked out at the world and decided they could help the sick with "Doctors without Borders" or field a Peace Corps to teach all sorts of skills. Dr. Lorna Hahn organized an association that brought together newly-independent countries with experts who knew how to do things like write constitutions.-
We are at a crossroads, where humanity needs the wisdom, for example, to use CRISPR-Cas9 technology to develop uniform crops machines can harvest to feed the human race, while refraining from using CRISPR-Cas9 technology to edit genes that can eliminate all or part of the human race. (Also see the earlier post, "The Where Did I Come From? Game.") We need experts with ideas about how to engage the billions of workers robots are rushing to replace.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Tour Sites Beyond A Country's Capital
News coverage rightly focuses on the capitals of countries. In governing centers, elections, coups. terrorist attacks, and earthquakes deserve attention, because they affect the political directions and needs of a country. Nonetheless, capital-centered news draws attention away from much that a country has to offer. This realization came home to me this morning, when I heard news warning U.S. citizens to avoid travel to China during this period of trade and spying tensions.
Consider some of the sights and activities visitors to China have discovered in cities beyond Beijing. Find a map or globe and locate:
Yanqing - North of Beijing, visitors will see flower exhibits from over 100 countries at the International Flower Festival with the theme, "Live Green, Live Better," which begins April 29, 2019. From a nearby 4-story tower, tourists also will be able to see the Great Wall of China when smog does not obstruct the view. In 2022, this city will be the site of some Winter Olympic events.
Chongli - North of Yanqing, this city also will be the site of some Winter Olympic events in 2022.
Moving southeast from Beijing toward China's coast, locate:
Qingdao - This deep water port was annexed by Germany and used by the German navy in 1887, captured by Japan in 1914, and returned to China in 1922. Germany's lingering influence is evident in the city's famous brewery, Tsingtao; a German Protestant church; and the Governor's House Museum. Prior to September, 2019, you may have been able to see movie stars coming and going from what was expected to be this new center of Chinese filmmaking before authoritarian control caused investors to leave.
Suzhou - Farther down the eastern coast, west of Shanghai, is China's traditional cultural center for intellectuals known as "the Venice of the East" because of its picturesque canals and stone bridges. A museum here traces silk production, and the UNESCO heritage Humble Administration's Garden and the Garden of Cultivation attract millions of tourists.
Xiamen - Still farther south, west of Taiwan, the deep water harbor, also known as Amoy, was once a pirate hideaway and tea exporting port. Now, it is known for its beaches and earthen Hakka roundhouses. A ferry takes visitors to Gulangyu Island to see the former mansions of European and Japanese traders.
Haikou - At the base of China, east of Vietnam, this city on Hainan Island is a tropical beach with water sports and arcades.
In western China, there are at least two notable cities, one in the south and one in the north.
Chengdu - If you've seen a Giant Panda at a zoo, it probably came from the research and breeding center, established in 1987, that you're welcome to visit at Chengdu, far west of Shanghai.
Lanzhou - This stop on China's ancient Silk Road map is the gateway to western China. It is a multicultural city, with Chinese Han, Muslim, and Tibetan influences, at the Zhongshan Bridge over the Yellow River. Lanzhou beef noodles and barbecued meats are local specialties.
Beyond the capital of any country, what are the other significant cities you would like to visit?
Consider some of the sights and activities visitors to China have discovered in cities beyond Beijing. Find a map or globe and locate:
Yanqing - North of Beijing, visitors will see flower exhibits from over 100 countries at the International Flower Festival with the theme, "Live Green, Live Better," which begins April 29, 2019. From a nearby 4-story tower, tourists also will be able to see the Great Wall of China when smog does not obstruct the view. In 2022, this city will be the site of some Winter Olympic events.
Chongli - North of Yanqing, this city also will be the site of some Winter Olympic events in 2022.
Moving southeast from Beijing toward China's coast, locate:
Qingdao - This deep water port was annexed by Germany and used by the German navy in 1887, captured by Japan in 1914, and returned to China in 1922. Germany's lingering influence is evident in the city's famous brewery, Tsingtao; a German Protestant church; and the Governor's House Museum. Prior to September, 2019, you may have been able to see movie stars coming and going from what was expected to be this new center of Chinese filmmaking before authoritarian control caused investors to leave.
Suzhou - Farther down the eastern coast, west of Shanghai, is China's traditional cultural center for intellectuals known as "the Venice of the East" because of its picturesque canals and stone bridges. A museum here traces silk production, and the UNESCO heritage Humble Administration's Garden and the Garden of Cultivation attract millions of tourists.
Xiamen - Still farther south, west of Taiwan, the deep water harbor, also known as Amoy, was once a pirate hideaway and tea exporting port. Now, it is known for its beaches and earthen Hakka roundhouses. A ferry takes visitors to Gulangyu Island to see the former mansions of European and Japanese traders.
Haikou - At the base of China, east of Vietnam, this city on Hainan Island is a tropical beach with water sports and arcades.
In western China, there are at least two notable cities, one in the south and one in the north.
Chengdu - If you've seen a Giant Panda at a zoo, it probably came from the research and breeding center, established in 1987, that you're welcome to visit at Chengdu, far west of Shanghai.
Lanzhou - This stop on China's ancient Silk Road map is the gateway to western China. It is a multicultural city, with Chinese Han, Muslim, and Tibetan influences, at the Zhongshan Bridge over the Yellow River. Lanzhou beef noodles and barbecued meats are local specialties.
Beyond the capital of any country, what are the other significant cities you would like to visit?
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
The "Where Did I Come From?" Game
Not only do genes influence the color of our eyes and other physical characteristics, but findings, reported in Blueprint: How DNA Makes Us Who We Are by Robert Plomin, indicate genes also have an impact on our behavior.
In other words, besides influencing a person's height, genetics also can have more to do with a person's plans to attend college than a household environment filled with books. Genetic tests that purport to measure innate abilities, however, do not predict if a person will find, make, or choose a way to activate an innate trait by, for example, actually attending and graduating from college.
The realization that genetics have an impact on both body and behavior raises even greater concern about using the CRISPR-Cas9 technique to edit human genes, something that it appears Chinese researcher, He Jiankui, already has done. In contrast, what the Seleggt egg-producing company in Germany is doing, according to trendwatching.com, is very worthwhile. Seleggt is identifying the sex of male check eggs before they hatch, using the eggs for fertilizer, and eliminating previous inhumane methods of killing about 4.6 billion male chickens every year.
Editing affects not just one person's DNA; changes are passed on from generation to generation.That is all well and good, if, for example, an entire family tree inherits immunity to an infection. But mutation of a chosen gene, however well intended to be beneficial, might also cause mutation in non-targeted genes and other undesirable changes, such as deletion of sections of DNA, in the mix of chromosomes that make up a human person.
The added realization that genes affect behavioral traits as well as physical ones means using CRISPR-Cas9 to change human genes is all the more irresponsible.
My father used to say, "There are no fat Jautzes." Photos of relatives show whether he was right or wrong. They also show where my sister got her red hair. Just as Carl Zimmer wrote in She Has Her Mother's Laugh, we also should pay close attention to family histories of medical problems, such as fractured bones, we might share with ancestors. Looking at traits inherited from members of our family tree explains why our current generation has entrepreneurs, writers, actors, musicians, and only one scientist. In Vogue (March, 2019), I also noticed the Armenian-Syrian singer and composer, Karyyn, reported, "All of my aunts and uncles in Syria on my mom's side are artists, singers, musicians, and puppeteers."
A young person trying to decide on a career can begin by finding out the professions their ancestors chose. On the PBS TV show that helps prominent people discover their roots, politicians often are amazed to learn of relatives who also were public servants.
Playing "Where Did I Come From?" is fun. But, unless carefully played, using gene editing to change pieces becomes a very dangerous game.
In other words, besides influencing a person's height, genetics also can have more to do with a person's plans to attend college than a household environment filled with books. Genetic tests that purport to measure innate abilities, however, do not predict if a person will find, make, or choose a way to activate an innate trait by, for example, actually attending and graduating from college.
The realization that genetics have an impact on both body and behavior raises even greater concern about using the CRISPR-Cas9 technique to edit human genes, something that it appears Chinese researcher, He Jiankui, already has done. In contrast, what the Seleggt egg-producing company in Germany is doing, according to trendwatching.com, is very worthwhile. Seleggt is identifying the sex of male check eggs before they hatch, using the eggs for fertilizer, and eliminating previous inhumane methods of killing about 4.6 billion male chickens every year.
Editing affects not just one person's DNA; changes are passed on from generation to generation.That is all well and good, if, for example, an entire family tree inherits immunity to an infection. But mutation of a chosen gene, however well intended to be beneficial, might also cause mutation in non-targeted genes and other undesirable changes, such as deletion of sections of DNA, in the mix of chromosomes that make up a human person.
The added realization that genes affect behavioral traits as well as physical ones means using CRISPR-Cas9 to change human genes is all the more irresponsible.
My father used to say, "There are no fat Jautzes." Photos of relatives show whether he was right or wrong. They also show where my sister got her red hair. Just as Carl Zimmer wrote in She Has Her Mother's Laugh, we also should pay close attention to family histories of medical problems, such as fractured bones, we might share with ancestors. Looking at traits inherited from members of our family tree explains why our current generation has entrepreneurs, writers, actors, musicians, and only one scientist. In Vogue (March, 2019), I also noticed the Armenian-Syrian singer and composer, Karyyn, reported, "All of my aunts and uncles in Syria on my mom's side are artists, singers, musicians, and puppeteers."
A young person trying to decide on a career can begin by finding out the professions their ancestors chose. On the PBS TV show that helps prominent people discover their roots, politicians often are amazed to learn of relatives who also were public servants.
Playing "Where Did I Come From?" is fun. But, unless carefully played, using gene editing to change pieces becomes a very dangerous game.
Friday, January 4, 2019
What Happens After Wars?
Wise decision making does not need data from another war. Human history already has enough data about the positive and negative results of wars to make additional surveys unnecessary. Marathon runners race 26 miles in the Olympics, because the Greeks defeated the Persians in 490 B.C. But no battle is responsible for Olympic figure skating.
Clearly, wars have resulted in: disarmament, unemployed military personnel and weapon designers and manufacturers, collective security, land grabs and new borders, displaced populations, inflation, economic collapse, new financing for rebuilding, foreign aid, competing ideologies, independence and self determination for ethnic populations, release of prisoners, and medical advances. The question is: could positive outcomes from wars be achieved without bloodshed?
Students attend Model UN meetings to discuss current world problems, and each year the Foreign Policy Association (fpa.org) prepares a Great Decisions Briefing Book and DVD to guide group discussions and provide topics for student essays. There also could be summits where students decide what wartime achievements could be gained without wars. (In 2019, the Great Decisions' discussion topics include: nuclear negotiations, cyberwarfare, U.S.-China trade and U.S.-Mexican relations, regional conflict in the Middle East, refugees/migration, European populism.)
The challenge is to find out how similar subjects have been handled successfully after past wars. Has there ever been a way to incorporate a country's former rebel and military leaders into a productive government? Or could the Kurds who now live in Iraq, Turkey, and Syria break away peacefully and form their own country the way the Czech Republic (Czechia in English) and Slovakia did? Instead, as U.S. troops began pulling out of Syria, President Trump has called on Turkey's government, which is responsible for harsh treatment of its Kurds, to protect the Kurds the U.S. troops fought with in Syria, a questionable idea.
Clearly, wars have resulted in: disarmament, unemployed military personnel and weapon designers and manufacturers, collective security, land grabs and new borders, displaced populations, inflation, economic collapse, new financing for rebuilding, foreign aid, competing ideologies, independence and self determination for ethnic populations, release of prisoners, and medical advances. The question is: could positive outcomes from wars be achieved without bloodshed?
Students attend Model UN meetings to discuss current world problems, and each year the Foreign Policy Association (fpa.org) prepares a Great Decisions Briefing Book and DVD to guide group discussions and provide topics for student essays. There also could be summits where students decide what wartime achievements could be gained without wars. (In 2019, the Great Decisions' discussion topics include: nuclear negotiations, cyberwarfare, U.S.-China trade and U.S.-Mexican relations, regional conflict in the Middle East, refugees/migration, European populism.)
The challenge is to find out how similar subjects have been handled successfully after past wars. Has there ever been a way to incorporate a country's former rebel and military leaders into a productive government? Or could the Kurds who now live in Iraq, Turkey, and Syria break away peacefully and form their own country the way the Czech Republic (Czechia in English) and Slovakia did? Instead, as U.S. troops began pulling out of Syria, President Trump has called on Turkey's government, which is responsible for harsh treatment of its Kurds, to protect the Kurds the U.S. troops fought with in Syria, a questionable idea.
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