The 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), formed in 1960, and non-members, such as Russia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, all had a major incentive to reach an agreement to reduce oil output and stop what has been a major collapse in crude oil prices since 2014. Compared to the $753 billion in revenue from exports then, revenue is expected to be $341 billion in 2016. OPEC members, Iran and Iraq, have been reluctant to cut production, with Iran also engaged in tit for tat charges with Saudi Arabia (See the earlier post, "Mixed Messages from Saudi Arabia.")
At OPEC's November 30, 2016 meeting, members agreed to cut daily oil production by 1.2 million barrels beginning on January 1, 2017. Iran is allowed to increase its production to 3.8 million barrels a day as it recovers from sanctions imposed to block its nuclear program. Non-OPEC members are expected to cut 600,000 barrels a day from their production, with Russia accounting for half of the 600,000 barrel reduction. Large producers, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, have a good record of compliance; compliance by other revenue-starved OPEC members will be closely monitored.
The production cuts are designed to increase the price of a barrel of crude from under $50 to at least the range of $55 to $60, a welcome boost for oil-dependent economies in countries such as Angola, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Russia. Oil was selling in the low $50s in February, fell below $50 in early March, 2017, and rebounded in early April, 2017 to $52 a barrel. At the beginning of May, 2017, oil again had dropped to $45.5 a barrel and by June, 26-27. 2017, it was at the $43-$44 level.
Nigeria provides an example of the devastating effect falling oil prices have had on an OPEC member. Banks are in trouble because of failing loans for investments in new local oil producers. Generating electricity is more costly. Currency controls have been imposed to limit the amount of foreign currency available to purchase imports and to foster local manufacturing; and the government has implemented a number of unsuccessful reforms to encourage unemployed urban residents to return to the farm (See the earlier post, "Nigeria's New Beginning.").
Even with the OPEC agreement, it is feared oversupply will continue to dampen oil prices. US producers are in a position to increase output when prices rise and to shut down when oil is selling in the mid-$40 a barrel range or below. With higher prices, of course, more US shale oil production is also profitable.
Monday, November 28, 2016
Friday, November 25, 2016
You've Got To Move It, Move It. Trees, that is.
If you've seen the movie, Madagascar, you remember King Julien, the saucy lemur whose dances encouraged other animals to "Move, it, move it."
Although Arbor Day began in the United States in 1972 as a way to celebrate trees for their ability to provide clean air, shade, lower energy costs, and control of storm water run-off, when rain forests began to be burned or bulldozed and animals, such as the lemur, were endangered because their habitats were disappearing, tree planting conservation needed to move it, move it, move it to other parts of the world.
Islands like Madagascar, just like the Galapagos made famous by Darwin, have unique biodiversity environments. When Jean Norbert Rakotonirina, known as Dadalioka, guided Dr. Edward Louis, Jr. to his tropical village, the black and white ruffed lemur population was almost gone. By 2009, only eight lemurs lived in the Sangasanga Mountain of Madagascar.
Thanks to the Madagascar Biodiversity Partnership, which includes the Arbor Day Foundation, 1,700, once unemployed young and old Madagascar residents have worked in nurseries and planted one million trees, especially fruit trees that are a lemur's main diet. Even the lemur population, that increased to 50 in the Sangasanga Mountain by 2015, helps the reforestation effort. When lemurs eat fruit, the seeds their tummies don't digest plant more fruit trees.
By working on the tree planting project, single mothers in Madagascar have been able to send their children to school, support their aging relatives, start small poultry farms, repair their homes, and trade points for non-polluting stoves and sewing machines. People have learned the value of trees and of the conservation of forests, up to 80% of which were destroyed in Madagascar by 2012.
What I especially like about the Arbor Day Foundation (arborday.org) is its modest financial request. A tax-deductible contribution of $10 plants 10 trees in an endangered rain forest that produces as much as 40% of the world's oxygen and ingredients for almost a quarter of our medicines. Also, a tree is planted in the recipient's name for each holiday card you purchase and send. Cards are shipped to you within five days. For details, go to arborday.org/giveatree. Other gift ideas, such as rain forest-saving coffee, can be found at arborday.org/holiday gifts.
King Julien, the original party animal, says, "Thank you, and you've got to move it, move it."
Although Arbor Day began in the United States in 1972 as a way to celebrate trees for their ability to provide clean air, shade, lower energy costs, and control of storm water run-off, when rain forests began to be burned or bulldozed and animals, such as the lemur, were endangered because their habitats were disappearing, tree planting conservation needed to move it, move it, move it to other parts of the world.
Islands like Madagascar, just like the Galapagos made famous by Darwin, have unique biodiversity environments. When Jean Norbert Rakotonirina, known as Dadalioka, guided Dr. Edward Louis, Jr. to his tropical village, the black and white ruffed lemur population was almost gone. By 2009, only eight lemurs lived in the Sangasanga Mountain of Madagascar.
Thanks to the Madagascar Biodiversity Partnership, which includes the Arbor Day Foundation, 1,700, once unemployed young and old Madagascar residents have worked in nurseries and planted one million trees, especially fruit trees that are a lemur's main diet. Even the lemur population, that increased to 50 in the Sangasanga Mountain by 2015, helps the reforestation effort. When lemurs eat fruit, the seeds their tummies don't digest plant more fruit trees.
By working on the tree planting project, single mothers in Madagascar have been able to send their children to school, support their aging relatives, start small poultry farms, repair their homes, and trade points for non-polluting stoves and sewing machines. People have learned the value of trees and of the conservation of forests, up to 80% of which were destroyed in Madagascar by 2012.
What I especially like about the Arbor Day Foundation (arborday.org) is its modest financial request. A tax-deductible contribution of $10 plants 10 trees in an endangered rain forest that produces as much as 40% of the world's oxygen and ingredients for almost a quarter of our medicines. Also, a tree is planted in the recipient's name for each holiday card you purchase and send. Cards are shipped to you within five days. For details, go to arborday.org/giveatree. Other gift ideas, such as rain forest-saving coffee, can be found at arborday.org/holiday gifts.
King Julien, the original party animal, says, "Thank you, and you've got to move it, move it."
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Mixed Messages from Saudi Arabia
I like watching CNBC, because a station that follows the stock market has to keep up, not only with economics, but also with political and social trends. Following the U.S. presidential election, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, chairman and controlling shareholder of Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Holding Company and one of the largest foreign investors in the US, told CNBC host, Jim Cramer, "We look at you (your country) as being the vanguard and being the leaders of the world."
Prince Alwaleed reminded me of the time I began teaching a section on Medieval Italy by asking students to list what they knew about Italy. Roman Empire, pizza, pasta, and home of the Pope helped initiate a discussion of how fragmented the country was before unification in 1870. Now, I asked myself, "What do I know about Saudi Arabia?" Lots of oil, little water, home of 9/11 terrorists, Muslim, women not allowed to drive, considers Iran an enemy. I need to know more.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was not formed until 1932. In the 1950s, the US participated in the country's oil boom through Aramco, the Arabian American Oil Company. US heavy machinery companies also participated in the oil-financed construction boom that transformed a desert into a wealthy country with ports, roads, schools, hospitals, and power plants.
Despite these close US-Saudi connections, some Sunni Muslims in Saudi Arabia, as well as those from the enemy Shi'ite branch of Muslims in Persian Iran, harbored hatred of the US for its support of Israel against the Palestinians and resented the US presence in Saudi Arabia. At present, Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen fire long-range missiles into Saudi Arabia.
Although Osama bin Laden's family came from poor South Yemen, his father won favor with Saudi's king and gained lucrative construction contracts. Bin Laden was born in Saudi Arabia and spent most of his early life there in Jeddah. Due to the Muslim terrorist activities he inspired from his later headquarters in Sudan, including a suspected attempt on the life of Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, Saudi King Fahd was pressured to revoke bin Laden's citizenship and passport in March, 1994. He left Sudan for Afghanistan in May, 1996.
Fifteen of the 19 hijackers involved in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US were Saudi nationals. Senior Saudi officials denied any role in the attacks and the 9/11 commission found no evidence linking the Saudi government with funding for the operation. Nonetheless, in September 2016, the US Congress passed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) that gives the families of terrorist victims the right to sue governments suspected of playing a role in a terrorist attack on US soil. Congress overrode President Obama's veto of the bill and JASTA became a law which potentially undermines the close US-Saudi relationship and counter terrorism cooperation between the two countries.
In Saudi Arabia, cuts in salaries and subsidies due to falling oil prices are understandably unpopular with the Saudi public. Saudi's Vision 2030 economic program is designed to reduce the country's dependence on oil revenues. On CNBC, Prince Alwaleed told Cramer that he is a member of a group looking into energy alternatives to oil.
Besides the importance of oil in Saudi Arabia's future economy, succession to the Saudi throne also bears watching. Currently, King Salman of the House of Saud supports both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, his 57-year-old nephew and minister of interior who is next in the line of succession, and his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 31-year-old contender who could leapfrog past his cousin. Speculation heightened when Crown Prince Muqrin bin Aldulaziz resigned his position in April, 2015, to make room for the Deputy Crown Prince.
Prince Alwaleed reminded me of the time I began teaching a section on Medieval Italy by asking students to list what they knew about Italy. Roman Empire, pizza, pasta, and home of the Pope helped initiate a discussion of how fragmented the country was before unification in 1870. Now, I asked myself, "What do I know about Saudi Arabia?" Lots of oil, little water, home of 9/11 terrorists, Muslim, women not allowed to drive, considers Iran an enemy. I need to know more.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was not formed until 1932. In the 1950s, the US participated in the country's oil boom through Aramco, the Arabian American Oil Company. US heavy machinery companies also participated in the oil-financed construction boom that transformed a desert into a wealthy country with ports, roads, schools, hospitals, and power plants.
Despite these close US-Saudi connections, some Sunni Muslims in Saudi Arabia, as well as those from the enemy Shi'ite branch of Muslims in Persian Iran, harbored hatred of the US for its support of Israel against the Palestinians and resented the US presence in Saudi Arabia. At present, Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen fire long-range missiles into Saudi Arabia.
Although Osama bin Laden's family came from poor South Yemen, his father won favor with Saudi's king and gained lucrative construction contracts. Bin Laden was born in Saudi Arabia and spent most of his early life there in Jeddah. Due to the Muslim terrorist activities he inspired from his later headquarters in Sudan, including a suspected attempt on the life of Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, Saudi King Fahd was pressured to revoke bin Laden's citizenship and passport in March, 1994. He left Sudan for Afghanistan in May, 1996.
Fifteen of the 19 hijackers involved in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US were Saudi nationals. Senior Saudi officials denied any role in the attacks and the 9/11 commission found no evidence linking the Saudi government with funding for the operation. Nonetheless, in September 2016, the US Congress passed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) that gives the families of terrorist victims the right to sue governments suspected of playing a role in a terrorist attack on US soil. Congress overrode President Obama's veto of the bill and JASTA became a law which potentially undermines the close US-Saudi relationship and counter terrorism cooperation between the two countries.
In Saudi Arabia, cuts in salaries and subsidies due to falling oil prices are understandably unpopular with the Saudi public. Saudi's Vision 2030 economic program is designed to reduce the country's dependence on oil revenues. On CNBC, Prince Alwaleed told Cramer that he is a member of a group looking into energy alternatives to oil.
Besides the importance of oil in Saudi Arabia's future economy, succession to the Saudi throne also bears watching. Currently, King Salman of the House of Saud supports both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, his 57-year-old nephew and minister of interior who is next in the line of succession, and his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 31-year-old contender who could leapfrog past his cousin. Speculation heightened when Crown Prince Muqrin bin Aldulaziz resigned his position in April, 2015, to make room for the Deputy Crown Prince.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
The Challenge of New Technologies: Prepare to Think
IBM recognized what the future would require by showing the lack of space planned for the "K" slipping down the side of its "THINK" signs. The need to think was on display at last night's poster and presentation session given by high school students who spent their summer in science labs and departments at the University of Wisconsin.
Students needed to be willing to expend a major effort just preparing for their experiments. One young woman dragged branches, plants, and flowers to the lab to find that birds need to be motivated by an attractive, secure area in order to breed. Multiple times a young man rowed a boat into the middle of a lake at night in order to scoop up water that showed what destroyed undesirable algae multiplied faster than the invasive species that destroyed the helpful algae remover. Another student had to find a sausage factory where he could procure the pig livers he needed to test how their properties changed during heating in a microwave. Various purifying procedures were needed before testing and careful math calculations were needed before a machine could emit radiation to attack tumors. Findings, such as the dangers of the toxic nano particles lithium batteries give off as they decompose, were preliminary but important.
Heading into the future, artificial intelligence (AI); robotics, CRISPR and other medical technologies; the relationship of technology, human values, and public policy; and other technical subjects will play a major role in lives throughout the world. Yet in recent elections, electorates have cast their votes based on emotion: anger about the rich who are getting richer while they're not, anger about their countries filling up with people who don't look like them, and anger about a perceived attack on their values.
Away from the disillusioned voters back home, members of the World Economic Forum (weforum.org) met in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this week to discuss the impact of new technologies. Their discussions need to make it back home to those have to understand how they will be affected by the good and bad impacts these technologies will have on their lives.
However, you can't help but sympathize with anyone who tries to deal with the complexity and scientific jargon in an article about a technology, such as CRISPR-Cas9. First there is a description. CRISPR-Cas9 can genetically edit cells to improve crops and fight disease. In humans, if used to alter the genetic make-up of cells in an egg, sperm, or embryo, the same mutation will be transmitted from generation to generation. In order for the latter process to work, genes injected from outside need to be accepted by cells that store the germline, the biochemical unit of heredity.
Then, articles tout the benefits of the new technology. Pig organs could be produced without the genes that prevent transplants in humans. Malaria-carrying mosquitoes could be eliminated the way genetically altered Atlantic salmon already grow double the size of ordinary salmon in half the time. Diseases could be cured, even though the complex interrelationship of genes often makes this unlikely in many cases.
Articles frequently ignore problems associated with new technologies. It is up to the reader to ask, "Couldn't a rogue scientist use CRISPR-Cas9 to inject unhealthy mutations into human cells that would be transmitted from generation to generation?" Or might only wealthy people be able: to afford the cures that CRISPR-Cas9 technology could provide. While CRISPR-altered seeds produce uniform crops that can be harvested by machines, farmers in poor countries may not be able to pay for the annual purchase of patented hybrid seeds that grow food in drought conditions.
Some call the biomedical duel between China and the United States to achieve dramatic CRISPR-Cas9 results "Sputnik 2.0." On October 18, 2016 scientists at Sichuan University in Chengdu, China, used CRISPR-Cas9 technology to see whether they could disable a gene in the patient's immune cells and reprogram the lung cancer patient's cells not only to resist but to fight back against the cancer. To date, results of the test are not known and neither are side effects. At the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Dr. Carl June also is about to use CRISPR editing to enable three genes in the immune cells of 18 cancer patients, who have not been helped by other treatments, to seek and destroy their cancerous tumors.
Guarding against technology bias also needs to keep up with fast-paced artificial intelligence (AI) developments. Joy Buolamwini's Algorithmic Justice League found facial-analysis software was prone to making mistakes recognizing the female gender, especially of darker-skinned women. AI is developed by and often tested primarily on light-skinned men, but recognition technology, for example, is promoted for hiring, policing, and military applications involving diverse populations.
Finally, we all need to think about and act on the guidelines, regulations, and other checks needed to keep up with the effects of rapidly progressing new technologies.
Students needed to be willing to expend a major effort just preparing for their experiments. One young woman dragged branches, plants, and flowers to the lab to find that birds need to be motivated by an attractive, secure area in order to breed. Multiple times a young man rowed a boat into the middle of a lake at night in order to scoop up water that showed what destroyed undesirable algae multiplied faster than the invasive species that destroyed the helpful algae remover. Another student had to find a sausage factory where he could procure the pig livers he needed to test how their properties changed during heating in a microwave. Various purifying procedures were needed before testing and careful math calculations were needed before a machine could emit radiation to attack tumors. Findings, such as the dangers of the toxic nano particles lithium batteries give off as they decompose, were preliminary but important.
Heading into the future, artificial intelligence (AI); robotics, CRISPR and other medical technologies; the relationship of technology, human values, and public policy; and other technical subjects will play a major role in lives throughout the world. Yet in recent elections, electorates have cast their votes based on emotion: anger about the rich who are getting richer while they're not, anger about their countries filling up with people who don't look like them, and anger about a perceived attack on their values.
Away from the disillusioned voters back home, members of the World Economic Forum (weforum.org) met in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this week to discuss the impact of new technologies. Their discussions need to make it back home to those have to understand how they will be affected by the good and bad impacts these technologies will have on their lives.
However, you can't help but sympathize with anyone who tries to deal with the complexity and scientific jargon in an article about a technology, such as CRISPR-Cas9. First there is a description. CRISPR-Cas9 can genetically edit cells to improve crops and fight disease. In humans, if used to alter the genetic make-up of cells in an egg, sperm, or embryo, the same mutation will be transmitted from generation to generation. In order for the latter process to work, genes injected from outside need to be accepted by cells that store the germline, the biochemical unit of heredity.
Then, articles tout the benefits of the new technology. Pig organs could be produced without the genes that prevent transplants in humans. Malaria-carrying mosquitoes could be eliminated the way genetically altered Atlantic salmon already grow double the size of ordinary salmon in half the time. Diseases could be cured, even though the complex interrelationship of genes often makes this unlikely in many cases.
Articles frequently ignore problems associated with new technologies. It is up to the reader to ask, "Couldn't a rogue scientist use CRISPR-Cas9 to inject unhealthy mutations into human cells that would be transmitted from generation to generation?" Or might only wealthy people be able: to afford the cures that CRISPR-Cas9 technology could provide. While CRISPR-altered seeds produce uniform crops that can be harvested by machines, farmers in poor countries may not be able to pay for the annual purchase of patented hybrid seeds that grow food in drought conditions.
Some call the biomedical duel between China and the United States to achieve dramatic CRISPR-Cas9 results "Sputnik 2.0." On October 18, 2016 scientists at Sichuan University in Chengdu, China, used CRISPR-Cas9 technology to see whether they could disable a gene in the patient's immune cells and reprogram the lung cancer patient's cells not only to resist but to fight back against the cancer. To date, results of the test are not known and neither are side effects. At the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Dr. Carl June also is about to use CRISPR editing to enable three genes in the immune cells of 18 cancer patients, who have not been helped by other treatments, to seek and destroy their cancerous tumors.
Guarding against technology bias also needs to keep up with fast-paced artificial intelligence (AI) developments. Joy Buolamwini's Algorithmic Justice League found facial-analysis software was prone to making mistakes recognizing the female gender, especially of darker-skinned women. AI is developed by and often tested primarily on light-skinned men, but recognition technology, for example, is promoted for hiring, policing, and military applications involving diverse populations.
Finally, we all need to think about and act on the guidelines, regulations, and other checks needed to keep up with the effects of rapidly progressing new technologies.
Friday, November 11, 2016
Soft Power
What changes minds, governments, behavior? The idea that a trainer can get a horse to do something by using a carrot that rewards or a stick that hurts translates into soft power and hard power. In international relations, hard power takes the form of tanks, bombs, drones, assassinations, prison sentences, torture, and economic sanctions. Soft power can defeat an enemy without firing a shot or sending anyone to a dungeon.
Young men from Loyola University in Chicago, Illinois, began kicking a soccer ball around in Andahuaylillas, Peru. Children heard the familiar sound and joined them. Adults came to watch and some also joined the game. The Loyola students were in a program exploring the way sports can be used as a means of youth and community development. Communities determined to prevent gangs from destructive activity during summer vacations can beef up policing and arrests or they can work with businesses to provide summer jobs and with parks to leave the lights on for midnight basketball games.
Why were a female music group, a Ukrainian filmmaker, and a blogger sent to Russian prisons and penal colonies? Why are Hong Kong book sellers in Chinese prisons? Authoritarian states recognize the soft power of music, film, social media, and books to overthrow repressive governments.
Fashion, video games, educational systems like Montessori or Suzuki, and ethnic foods also spread values and cultural influence.
Of the millions of people who have visited Disney theme parks, few have noticed the employees dressed as costumed characters when they enter or exit the park. The doors they used are in dim, uninviting alcoves away from the fun, excitement, and bright lights designed to entertain visitors.
The bottom line is: recognize the impact, influence, and power of soft power.
(You can find additional information about the influence of films and soft power in the earlier posts: "You Oughta Be in Pictures" and "What Moscow Could Learn from History."
Young men from Loyola University in Chicago, Illinois, began kicking a soccer ball around in Andahuaylillas, Peru. Children heard the familiar sound and joined them. Adults came to watch and some also joined the game. The Loyola students were in a program exploring the way sports can be used as a means of youth and community development. Communities determined to prevent gangs from destructive activity during summer vacations can beef up policing and arrests or they can work with businesses to provide summer jobs and with parks to leave the lights on for midnight basketball games.
Why were a female music group, a Ukrainian filmmaker, and a blogger sent to Russian prisons and penal colonies? Why are Hong Kong book sellers in Chinese prisons? Authoritarian states recognize the soft power of music, film, social media, and books to overthrow repressive governments.
Fashion, video games, educational systems like Montessori or Suzuki, and ethnic foods also spread values and cultural influence.
Of the millions of people who have visited Disney theme parks, few have noticed the employees dressed as costumed characters when they enter or exit the park. The doors they used are in dim, uninviting alcoves away from the fun, excitement, and bright lights designed to entertain visitors.
The bottom line is: recognize the impact, influence, and power of soft power.
(You can find additional information about the influence of films and soft power in the earlier posts: "You Oughta Be in Pictures" and "What Moscow Could Learn from History."
Monday, November 7, 2016
Secret Codes
If you communicate with emojis, you might be using a secret code that people who speak another language can understand, but some who speak your own language can't. That's the essence of secret codes. You send information you intend someone to understand and hide your messages from everyone else. Of course, spies do this all the time. They report plans, troop movements, economic conditions, and the health and characteristics of key officials enemies want to hide.
Not only is it necessary to write secrets in code and in things like lemon juice that disappears until the paper its written on is heated, but methods for sending messages also are important. Short radio bursts are used and messages are hidden in James Bond-type devices. During the Revolutionary War, Nathan Hale, considered the first U.S. spy, unfortunately hid a secret message in his boot which was easily discovered when he was caught by the British.
You and a friend might make up a secret code that gives words different meanings or uses the third letter in every word to make a sentence when those third letters are written together. If you want to send your message during a class, how would you get it to your friend three rows away? Or you might wrap a long strip of paper around a baseball bat, write your message vertically on the paper, unwind the paper and hide it somewhere. In order to read your message, a friend would have to wind the paper around a bat that was the same size as yours.
Decoding mistakes can happen. In 1916, Elizabeth Wells Gallup claimed she found coded messages from Sir Francis Bacon hidden in Shakespeare's scripts. Using only words written in one particular typeface, she found a message Bacon left in Richard II that led her to believe he said he wrote the play. When Elizabeth and William Friedman looked at Gallup's work in 1955, they found the different typefaces she relied on were caused by accidental primitive printing technology, not the intentional work of Bacon or anyone else.
Suppose you and a friend have a secret meeting or message hiding place. Spies have left messages in pumpkins, under bridges, under floor boards, and in bottles in the hollows of trees. You can signal your friend that you want to meet or you have left a message by methods similar to those spies have used. Where spies have put chalk marks on mail boxes, you could put a chalk mark on a friend's locker. Instead of putting a flower pot on a balcony, you could put a toy at your window or blink a flashlight. Slaves escaping on the Underground Railroad used to look for safe houses that had statues positioned in a certain way out front.
Fans of Harry Potter know his owl Hedwig carried secret messages. Homing pigeons performed the same task in wartime. Could you train a pet to do the job?
Secret codes often are very difficult to decipher. Letters carved into the sculpture, "Krypto," outside the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency remained a puzzle until an analyst spent eight years on his lunch hours using pencil and paper to figure out three of the sections on the stone. Even then, what the message meant was unclear. The movie, The Imitation Game, showed how Germans in World War II created an impossible to crack Enigma code that caused a British decoder at its secret Bletchley facility to build a computer to try millions of letter combinations. That didn't work until one person realized each transmission began with a weather report. By comparing each day's weather with the letters used in that day's secret message the number of combinations the computer had to try was reduced and messages Germans sent regarding enemy ships they intended to destroy could be read faster.
Nowadays, it is possible to both code and decode secret messages by computer. It also is possible to hack into messages sent by computer unless security measures, such as the use of secure passwords and default passwords, are taken. TIME magazine (Nov. 7, 2016) reported that on October 21, 2016 cyber hackers even tapped into the unsecured Internet of Things (remotely controlled internet connected surveillance cameras, printers, digital video recorders) and used them to activate a virus, Mirai, (the Japanese word for "the future") that overwhelmed servers at one company with malicious traffic that prevented legitimate users from reaching intended receivers. The tasks of preparing a truly secret code and transferring secret codes are becoming more difficult every day.
(For more information about how emojis communicate, see the earlier post, "Communicate without Words.")
Not only is it necessary to write secrets in code and in things like lemon juice that disappears until the paper its written on is heated, but methods for sending messages also are important. Short radio bursts are used and messages are hidden in James Bond-type devices. During the Revolutionary War, Nathan Hale, considered the first U.S. spy, unfortunately hid a secret message in his boot which was easily discovered when he was caught by the British.
You and a friend might make up a secret code that gives words different meanings or uses the third letter in every word to make a sentence when those third letters are written together. If you want to send your message during a class, how would you get it to your friend three rows away? Or you might wrap a long strip of paper around a baseball bat, write your message vertically on the paper, unwind the paper and hide it somewhere. In order to read your message, a friend would have to wind the paper around a bat that was the same size as yours.
Decoding mistakes can happen. In 1916, Elizabeth Wells Gallup claimed she found coded messages from Sir Francis Bacon hidden in Shakespeare's scripts. Using only words written in one particular typeface, she found a message Bacon left in Richard II that led her to believe he said he wrote the play. When Elizabeth and William Friedman looked at Gallup's work in 1955, they found the different typefaces she relied on were caused by accidental primitive printing technology, not the intentional work of Bacon or anyone else.
Suppose you and a friend have a secret meeting or message hiding place. Spies have left messages in pumpkins, under bridges, under floor boards, and in bottles in the hollows of trees. You can signal your friend that you want to meet or you have left a message by methods similar to those spies have used. Where spies have put chalk marks on mail boxes, you could put a chalk mark on a friend's locker. Instead of putting a flower pot on a balcony, you could put a toy at your window or blink a flashlight. Slaves escaping on the Underground Railroad used to look for safe houses that had statues positioned in a certain way out front.
Fans of Harry Potter know his owl Hedwig carried secret messages. Homing pigeons performed the same task in wartime. Could you train a pet to do the job?
Secret codes often are very difficult to decipher. Letters carved into the sculpture, "Krypto," outside the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency remained a puzzle until an analyst spent eight years on his lunch hours using pencil and paper to figure out three of the sections on the stone. Even then, what the message meant was unclear. The movie, The Imitation Game, showed how Germans in World War II created an impossible to crack Enigma code that caused a British decoder at its secret Bletchley facility to build a computer to try millions of letter combinations. That didn't work until one person realized each transmission began with a weather report. By comparing each day's weather with the letters used in that day's secret message the number of combinations the computer had to try was reduced and messages Germans sent regarding enemy ships they intended to destroy could be read faster.
Nowadays, it is possible to both code and decode secret messages by computer. It also is possible to hack into messages sent by computer unless security measures, such as the use of secure passwords and default passwords, are taken. TIME magazine (Nov. 7, 2016) reported that on October 21, 2016 cyber hackers even tapped into the unsecured Internet of Things (remotely controlled internet connected surveillance cameras, printers, digital video recorders) and used them to activate a virus, Mirai, (the Japanese word for "the future") that overwhelmed servers at one company with malicious traffic that prevented legitimate users from reaching intended receivers. The tasks of preparing a truly secret code and transferring secret codes are becoming more difficult every day.
(For more information about how emojis communicate, see the earlier post, "Communicate without Words.")
Friday, November 4, 2016
Turn Off, Power Down, and Act Up
The conservation-minded World Wildlife Fund included the following list of planet-helping reminders in its current catalog (wwfcatalog.org).
- Take a 5-minute shower that uses 10 to 25 gallons of the world's precious clean water resources compared to about 70 gallons for a bath.
- Turn off faucets while brushing teeth, soaping up hands, and putting shampoo in hair. Running a water faucet not only uses up clean water but running it for 5 minutes uses as much energy as lighting a 60-watt bulb for 14 hours.
- Turn off computers or use "sleep mode" to save energy when they're not in use. Unplug electronic devices when not in use over a long period of time (overnight), because many still use energy when switched off.
- Buy local at farmers' markets and grocery stores, and eat local at restaurants whenever possible. That reduces the need for the climate warming gas used to transport fruits and vegetables up to 1,500 miles.
- Reduce the gas used for your own trips by walking, biking, or taking a bus or train.
- Replace regular light bulbs with energy-saving compact fluorescent lights.
- Investigate using solar panels to save energy and cost in your home. Make sure to replace failing refrigerators and freezers that can account for 1/6 of a home's energy bill with appliances that are certified energy efficient.
Read more information about energy and environmental concerns at the earlier blog post, "A Healthy Environment."
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